Barack Obama. Obama’s Inheritance 1.Two US counterinsurgency wars 2.One global war against radical Islam 3.Arab Spring 4.Rising power in China.

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Presentation transcript:

Barack Obama

Obama’s Inheritance 1.Two US counterinsurgency wars 2.One global war against radical Islam 3.Arab Spring 4.Rising power in China

Obama’s Foreign Policy US National Security Strategy May 2010 US National Security Strategy May 2010 Threats Non-state Actors: The “dark side” of globalization –Al-Qaeda WMD proliferation Non-Democratic Regimes Economic Instability Cyber attacks Afghanistan/Pakistan Middle East Instability New balance of power in Asia (rise of China) US Role Economic renewal at home Expanding markets Economic Stability: G-20 Promote US values “Underwrite global security” “Shaping international order” Engagement China and Russia within a stable international order Strengthening Alliances

1. Counterinsurgency (COIN) in Iraq Getting Out: 2/09 Plan Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10

COIN in Afghanistan December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops Withdrawal in 2014

Obama Policy 2/27/09 Speech Refocus on Afghanistan

2. Global War against Radical Islam

Drone Strikes

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Anwar al-Awlaki Killed by drone strike 9/30/11

Attacks 2009 Nidal Hasan Umar Farouk 11/5/09 Abdulmutallab Killed 13 at Ft. Hood12/25/09 Northwest FLT 253 Amsterdam to Detroit

May 1, 2011 Bin-Laden killed

Counterterrorism Strategy Special Forces Drone strikes Criminal cases GW Bush balance: –capture and detain over kill Obama balance: –kill over capture and detain

3. Arab Spring Timeline

Balancing US interests counterterrorism human rights and democracy OIL alliance with Israel Iranian threat

Policies Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak Trying to salvage Yemeni leaders then helping negotiate their resignations Trying to salvage Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to move faster on political reform Bombing Libya Diplomacy with Syria then harsh language Saudi Arabia: silence

The Dilemma Saudi Arabia vs. Iran Israel vs. Iran After dictators fall –Sectarian civil wars? –Theocracies less friendly with US? –Al-Qaeda opportunities? –Are democracies more or less likely to be allies of the US?

4. Rise of China One nation catches up to the US Rising Challenger Declining hegemon

US vs. China Obama and Pres. Hu Jintao Obama and Pres. Xi Jinping

China as Challenges Rival Power Ideology –One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy

China sees Hegemony Encirclement? (US, Japan, S. Korea, India)

China sees threat: Launch Tube Hatches USS Alabama (SSBN)

Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

Pivot to Asia Defense GuidanceDefense Guidance 2012:2012 –Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership Priorities for 21st Century Defense Clinton at East-West Center –“America's Engagement in the Asia-Pacific” texttext

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