The Arab Spring IAFS 1000. Outline Tunisian Trigger Misconception re Status Quo Ante Spread of Arab Spring Role of Social Media Implications for Syria.

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Presentation transcript:

The Arab Spring IAFS 1000

Outline Tunisian Trigger Misconception re Status Quo Ante Spread of Arab Spring Role of Social Media Implications for Syria Conclusions

Origins 17 Dec 2010: Mohammed Bouazizi, Tunisian fruit-seller, self-immolated to protest abuse Protests spread throughout Tunisia 14 Jan 2011: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali forced into exile

Tunisian Themes Focus on economic issues Mass uprisings spontaneous Young people central to protests Uprising successful in driving Ben Ali from office

Misconceptions about Pre-Rising Status Quo Autocrats’ tight control of military > varied widely from state to state Autocrats’ ability to use oil money to buy off disgruntled citizens > yes, except in Libya Weakness of Pan-Arabism > leaderless revolts won broad Arab following

Repercussions (as of July 2012)

Spread of Unrest Egypt (Jan-Feb 2011): Mubarak handed power to military – Muhammad Morsi (Muslim Bros) to power Yemen (Feb 2011-ongoing): Saleh handed power over to crony VP al-Hadi Bahrain (Feb 2011-ongoing): protests put down by Saudi forces

Spread of Unrest Libya (Feb-Oct 2011): Gaddafi killed – Jul 2012: parliamentary elections Syria (Mar 2011-ongoing): military response from government – Jul 2011: emergence of Free Syrian Army (FSA) ~ Nov 2011: civil war

Role of Social Media Calls to protest on Facebook Social media a primary news source Egyptian efforts to limit internet backfired Wael Ghonim (Google): “We Are All Khalid Said”

Social Media Young Egyptians post videos of events in Tahrir Square, 7 Feb 2011)

Social Media hacker-assisted-revolution

Social Media Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

Appropriating Well Known Images Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

Social Media “We are all Khalid Said”

Social Media Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

Social Media

Antigovernment protesters in Bahrain’s Pearl Square Feb. 20. Social Media

“Occupy Yemen”

“Occupy Bahrain”

Social Media Challenges Anonymity – “Gay Girl in Damascus” hoax Social media dominated by US private companies – Result of clash of business or national interests?

Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria Military conflict Entire country disintegrating Assad’s Alawite regime supported by China, Russia, and especially Iran > hope to preserve “Shiite Crescent”? new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/03/making-sense-of-arab-spring-7-syria-and.html

Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria Assad opposed by US, Saudi Arabia Possible proxy war? Syria at heart of multiple conflicts: – Arab-Israel – Saudi-Iran – US-Russia – Hezbolah-Israel

Conclusions Complicated events, varying results Arab Spring not over yet, esp. in Syria US relations with new Islamist governments? Haytham Bahoora: watch for ongoing conflicts to be coopted by a range of interests for their own purposes