Legacy Pre-Proposals #1 Development of a Drought Early Warning System #2 Forecasting precipitation using near real-time weather and remote sensing data with multi-objective optimization Abigail Rosenberg Range Management Marine Corps Air Station Yuma

Introduction In 1990, Congress passed legislation establishing the Legacy Resource Management Program to provide financial assistance to the Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to preserve our natural and cultural heritage. Call for projects that support the military’s mission while promoting long-term stewardship of its natural and cultural heritage. It requires partnerships w/ other military installations (i.e., MCAS, Luke, and YPG)

Drought Early Warning System The goal of this research project is to develop a real-time monitoring and forecasting system for rangeland productivity in areas critical for Sonoran pronghorn recovery.

The specific objectives are: 1.Develop a decision-support system that provides real-time estimates of biomass production and distribution for in critical habitat of Sonoran Pronghorns. 2.Produce continuous regional map of pronghorn forage biomass using spatially discrete weather data. 3.Develop a simple Internet Map Server that will be used to distribute pronghorn forage maps to managers.

Background

Approach STEP 1 - Establish a system to automate the acquisition of regional weather data and place the data on the UA/USGS server. STEP 2 - Identify vegetation monitoring sites which are spatially diverse and represent the major plant communities across the region. STEP 3 - Calibrate the models using historical data from Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. STEP 4 -Develop, calibrate and refine the forecasting models on the pronghorn habitat.

Approach (Continued) STEP 5 - Compare the performance of the two types of models against each other using various statistical measures. STEP 6 - Using information from satellite imagery to interpolate the output from the models to fill spatial gaps and thus to produce regional vegetation maps. STEP 7 - Develop a simple Internet Map Server that will be used to distribute pronghorn forage maps to managers.

Weather Station Data?? Predictive models require near real-time data –Few weather stations exist in the study area –Data collected very infrequent 2 nd proposal will focus on weather station data –“Forecasting precipitation using near real-time weather and remote sensing data with multi- objective optimization”

Project Goal and Objectives The overall goal of this project is to quantify and forecast precipitation in support of developing a drought early warning system The specific objectives are: I.Review and compare historical precipitation records from existing weather stations and NEXRAD. II.Establish a network of weather stations to gather precipitation and other essential meteorological data. III.Use the weather data, NEXRAD, satellite imagery to interpolate the output from the multi-objective optimization modeling to estimate precipitation within the areas of interest. IV.Use multi-objective analysis to determine the optimal number and location of weather stations to characterize precipitation

Partners Luke Air Force Base, Arizona Yuma Proving Ground, Yuma, Arizona The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona Sonoran Pronghorn Recovery Team Arizona Game and Fish Department U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument Kofa National Wildlife Refuge Imperial National Wildlife Refuge Cibola National Wildlife Refuge Tohono O'odham Nation