ЛОПР: ограничить ущерб от опасных природных явлений на побережье NRAL: to limit damages from natural hazards at the coast Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University Saint Petersburg Meeting February 8 – 9, 2012

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

Goals and Objectives To undertake comprehensive research which will identify and fill the gaps in our understanding of the nature and impact of extreme events in the coastal zones To identify the mechanisms driving the intensity of extreme hazardous events in the coastal zones in European Russia To identify regions most at risk of compound events To provide risk assessments of these extremes under climate change scenarios

Expected results  Regional assessment of long-term variability and trends in extreme events over coastal zones of European Russia in the instrumental period, present transitional, and future climates;  Quantitative analysis of the regional and large scale mechanisms driving coastal hazards in a changing climate, including storm surges, extreme sea levels, hydrometeorolgical hazards (floods), soil conditions and groundwater storage;  Quantitative estimates of changes in coastal environment, geochemistry, water quantity and quality (implying, in turn, limits of the amounts of drinkable water) under changing climate conditions over European coastal zones due to the impact of hydrometerological hazards;  Regional measures of risk to environment, water resources and their management (such as potential limits of water availability), life conditions, marine structures and economy under climate change for selected coastal areas in European Russia.

Terminology Терминология Hazard: threat Опасное явление: угроза Risk: how much the threat can affect me Риск: какова угроза для меня Vulnerability: how much am I protected from the hazard ? Уязвимость: насколько я защищен от опасности? Preparedness: what can I do to reduce my vulnerability ? Готовность: что я могу сделать, чтобы уменьшить мою уязвимость? Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Hazards, Extreme Events, Risks Hazards: exceptional natural events –Storms, waves, storm surges, sea ice, flooding Extreme events –Deviations from the normal variance, rare, infrequent Threat –Danger for people, development, infrastructure, investment Risks –Potential to cause damage, severe impact Vulnerability –Status of protection from threat Vulnerability “Low probability – high impact” Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

Elements of Risk: Hazard, Vulnerability, Preparedness Juan Carlos de Villagran Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Risk Assessment Quantify the hazard H j Quantify the vulnerability V j Estimate the Risk R j Risk R i,…,j = V i,…j xH i,…,j Hazard and Risk Mapping Evaluate and interpret both kind of maps Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Vegetation mapping in the Astrakhan Nature Reserve area of the Volga delta records the rapid shoreline changes during sea level fall and more moderate infill during sea level rise over the last century (Overeem et al. 2003a, 2003b).

Changes in the duration of European wet periods normalized occurrence anomalies Zolina et al. 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett. Net effect of the number of wet days (Monte-Carlo simulation of the growing number of wet days, % per decade) 1%2%3% 0.17± ± ±0.25 It is not the effect of changing number of wet days!!! Linear trend in the WP duration:

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Historical Data Bases Risk Assessment Coastal impacts Hazard - Uncertainty Exposure Vulnerability risk vulnerability hazard exposure The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999) Methodology Castaneda

To do Develop standards for risk evaluation Hazards do not stop at a border –Standardize terminology, exchange of data and information Close co-operation with all partners – Authorities, agencies, private stakeholders, science Integrate Risk Assessment into planning and operation Money spent on early risk consideration is well spent. Much less than cleaning up AFTER a disaster strikes Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

Для этого Разработка стандартов для оценки рисков Опасные явления не останавливаются на границе –стандартизация терминологии, обмен данными и информацией Тесное сотрудничество со всеми партнерами – органами власти, учреждениями, частными заинтересованными лицами, наукой Интегрирование оценки рисков в планирование и эксплуатацию Деньги, потраченные на заблаговременное рассмотрение риска, потрачены не зря. Это гораздо меньше, чем затраты ПОСЛЕ стихийного бедствия Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

Structual damage Ying Xiu, WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE OF 12 MAY 2008

Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up 500 years return level (m) Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year) parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006) Castaneda