1 SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT Dr. Carlos E. Ventura Kate Thibert & Hugón Juárez García February 26 th, 2007

2 Acknowledgements Dr José Martí, Dr Jorge Hollman, David Grigg (Campus and Community Planning), Alejandro Cervantes, Juan Carlos Carvajal, Jack Rong, Lucy Liu, Paul Couch and Dave Mancini Matt Shannon and Natanella Vukojevic (Records office), Erin Kastner and Doug Smith (UBC Utilities), John Manougian (Hospital), JIIRP members (Professors and students)

3 Outline Seismic Risk Assessment Building Damage Assessment Lifeline Damage Assessment UBC Campus Case Ongoing and Future Tasks Conclusions

4 Our Goals Evolve from a Culture of Reaction into a Culture of Preparedness Analysis of Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructures Evaluate Hazards Develop Scenarios Analysis of critical interdependencies Reconsider strategies

5 Seismic Risk Assessment Seismic hazard assessment Site specific ground motion parameters Soil related problems (liquefaction, subsidence, and others) Tsunamis, etc Direct damage Buildings Non structural Lifelines Indirect Losses Indirect damage Floods Fire Survey Classification and characterization of the structural systems and lifelines Database Direct Losses Affected inhabitants (deaths, injured, homeless) Economic loss

6 PGA / MMI Select Probability Level % Damage and $ Loss Damage Tables Building Type Seismic Hazard Building Vulnerability Seismic Risk Seismic Risk

7 Seismic Hazard Source: GSC

8 Vulnerability The seismic behaviour of a structure depends on: The structure Non-structural- components (equipment, electric generators, pumps, pipelines, etc) Lifelines (electricity, water, gas, communication systems, highways, etc)

9 Buildings

10 Estimation of building damage Building classification Structural Damage Damage to Non structural components Casualties Economic Loss Functionality parameters

11 Lifelines

12 Lifelines Highways Railways Air transportation Sea water transportation Electrical Water supply Sanitary sewer

13 Example: Water Supply System Water supply system Building (concrete structure) (30%) Underground Pipeline (from the reservoir to the power house) Pumping stations Power House (100%) Underground Pipeline (leaving the power house) Mechanical equipment (50%) Electrical equipment (20%) Reservoir

14 UBC Campus Case Study Why modeling UBC campus? UBC campus shares attributes of a small city 47,000 daily transitory occupants 10,000 full time residents well defined residential, recreational and business areas own utility providers Information accessibility Objective of the Campus Case: Earthquake scenarios developed to analyze consequences for infrastructures and people. Collect UBC’s infrastructure information in a GIS feature Seismic Risk Assessment of UBC campus is just a part of the project

15 UBC Campus Results Approximately 400 buildings on UBC Campus were assessed Building inventory data from three sources: 1995 Assessment Records Office Sidewalk survey Damage Assessed for MMI VIII, IX and X

16 UBC Campus Results (preliminary)

17 What are the most important lifelines at UBC campus? Power pumping (water, steam, oil), air conditioning, heaters, refrigeration systems, telephone, internet, media, light, information systems, gas, oil Water (drinking, sewer, storm) Transportation Services + supplies

18 Underground Water Pipelines Main 24 km Sec 45 km For a MMI = VIII, 0.69 breaks / km Main, 17 breaks Sec, 31 breaks

19 Ongoing Tasks Building Assessment  Non Structural Components Assessment  Casualties Assessment  Hazard Assessment  Ambient Vibration Tests on “key” buildings  Microtremor test of “UBC site” to determine site characteristics  Non structural vibration tests

20 Ongoing tasks Lifeline Assessment  A survey of important lifelines within UBC campus Pipelines (water, gas, sewer, etc) Transportation (highways, roadways, etc) Services (health facilities, telecommunications, commerce, etc)  Account for the different problems that affect the seismic behaviour of lifelines (soil, interaction, standards, age, etc)  Important lifelines outside UBC campus that will affect functionality  Vibration tests of existing infrastructure

21 Future tasks – Seismic Risk Assessment of Selected Areas of the GVRD Source: GVRD

22 Building Damage - Preliminary Results Seismic Risk Assessment of Vancouver

23 Building Structural Damage

24 Building Monetary Losses

25 Building Structural Damage and Monetary Losses

26 Conclusions The research is ongoing, therefore some of the results shown in this presentation are preliminary and subject to further change Vibration test will help to confirm the damage relationships and seismic behaviour JIIRP is a very important study which will help us prepare for and understand disaster scenarios in a holistic way

27 Thank you