Pelatihan : Techniques in Active Tectonic Study Juni 20-Juli 2, 2013 Instruktur: Prof. J Ramon Arrowsmith (JRA) Dari Arizona State University (ASU) - US Tempat Pelaksanaan: Ruang Pangea, Laboratorium Gempabumi (LabEarth) – Puslit Geoteknologi LIPI dan Kuliah lapangan akan dilakukan disekitar Sesar Lembang, Jawa Barat. * Lebih jelas baca TOR/KAK dan daftar acara

Jordan, et al., 2011; L'Aquila earthquake and verdict

Accumulated links Operational Earthquake Forecasting – State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization - ICEF report News reports: Tom Jordan gave a very good interview on NPR: convicted-of-manslaughterhttp:// convicted-of-manslaughter Time Magazine: Scientific journal and blog commentary: Nature: Trembling Earth blog: nuanced-warning/ nuanced-warning/ Highly Allochthonous blog: italian-earthquake/ italian-earthquake/ Statements: Joint statement from the British Royal Society and National Academy of Sciences: and-multimedia/news/2012_10_25_Joint_Statement_NAS-RS_Italian_Earthquake_Scientists.htmlhttp:// and-multimedia/news/2012_10_25_Joint_Statement_NAS-RS_Italian_Earthquake_Scientists.html AAAS had issued a statement earlier in the trial - and they may be considering an update: AGU, GSA and EGU have released statements:

Some papers and reports Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, /2011JB pdf EERI report on the earthquake: a-eq-report.pdf a-eq-report.pdf …there are many more

The seismicity Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011

Felt reports of L’Aquila main shock / /index.html

Seismicity sequence

Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011

Spatial and temporal evolution of the foreshock sequence

Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011 Serial cross sections through the seismicity show activation of mostly west dipping Appenine/Abruzzo faults

probabilistic seismic hazard map for Italy: ground acceleration with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years Time independent earthquake forecast for Italy based on instrumental and historic seismicity and paleoseismology. Jordan, et al., 2011; eu/index.php/annals/article/vie w/5350/5371

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC OEF (10:20-11:50): -Continual updating of authoritative information about future occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes -The officially sanctioned dissemination of this information to enhance earthquake preparedness in threatened communities Earthquake probabilities -Probabilities of large earthquakes (even in areas of high seismicity) are low <<1%/day -High gain-low probability situations ( x)

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC L’Aquila (12:40-14:20) -probability of a false alarm > failure to predict (100x) -seismic activity had increased probability of a large event by ~100x -Scientists enticed into addressing a simple yes-no question (“will we be hit by a large earthquake?”) -Reassuring statements widely interpreted to be an anti-alarm

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC Recommendations (14:20-16:49) -Separate role of scientific advisors (objective information about natural hazards) from that of civil decision makers (weigh benefits of protective actions with costs of false alarms, other political considerations) -Use probabilistic rather than deterministic statements in characterizing short term changes in seismic hazards (e.g. meteorological community)

Membership: Dr. Terry Tullis, Chair Brown University Dr. Ramon Arrowsmith Arizona State University Dr. Nick Beeler USGS, Menlo Park, California Dr. David Jackson University of California, Los Angeles Dr. Bruce Shaw Columbia University Dr. William Ellsworth USGS, Menlo Park, California Dr. Evelyn Roeloffs USGS, Vancouver, Washington Dr. John Vidale University of Washington Dr. Andrew Michael USGS, Menlo Park, California Dr. Allan Rubin Princeton University Roland Burgmann University of California, Berkeley Dr. Bill Leith, Co-chair, ex officio Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake and Geologic Hazards and Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards Program USGS, Reston, Virginia Dr. Michael Blanpied, Executive Secretary Associate Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards Program USGS, Reston, Virginia Also, CEPEC: California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions The science of earthquake prediction is developing rapidly and, although still largely in a research stage, such predictions are now being initiated and are certain to continue into the future… It is the intent of this legislation to ensure that such actions are taken in the public interest by government agencies acting in a responsible manner without fear of consequent financial liabilities. -from John Parrish, California State Geologist

statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions The state and its agencies and employees shall not be liable for any injury resulting from the issuance or non-issuance of a warning pursuant to this subdivision or for any acts or omissions in fact gathering, evaluation, or other activities leading up to the issuance or non-issuance of a warning. -from John Parrish, California State Geologist