Are We “It” Yet? Steve Keen University of Western Sydney Debunking Economics www.debtdeflation.com/blogs www.debunkingeconomics.com.

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Presentation transcript:

Are We “It” Yet? Steve Keen University of Western Sydney Debunking Economics

Are We “It” Yet? Biggest debt bubbles in history...

Are We “It” Yet? “If income is to grow, the financial markets … must generate an aggregate demand that, aside from brief intervals, is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, … it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income and that some market technique exist by which aggregate spending in excess of aggregate anticipated income can be financed. It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets.” (Minsky 1982, p. 6; emphasis added)

Are We “It” Yet? Debt and GDP Aggregate Demand

Are We “It” Yet? Aggregate demand & unemployment

Are We “It” Yet? Aggregate demand & unemployment

Are We “It” Yet? Debt-financed proportion of aggregate demand:

Are We “It” Yet? Unemployment: end of the storm or just a lull?

Are We “It” Yet? Far larger Fed response: quantitative easing then & now “Printing press” may have stopped nascent deflation ?? But will it be sustained? Over to modelling...

Are We “It” Yet? Minsky: Ponzi finance extension to Keen 1995 Click here to download Vissim viewer program Click here to download Vissim viewer program Click on icon to run simulation after installing Vissim ViewerClick on icon to run simulation after installing Vissim Viewer

Are We “It” Yet? Circuit: Which gives more “bang for buck”— rescuing bankers or debtors? Click on icons to runClick on icons to run

Are We “It” Yet? Integrating Minsky & the Circuit –Debt-deflationary dynamics in strictly monetary Minsky-Circuit model –“The Great Moderation”, then “The Great Crash”

Are We “It” Yet? Stability is destabilizing...

Are We “It” Yet? Income inequality –Not worker vs capitalist but worker vs banker

Are We “It” Yet? QED: a new approach to dynamic modelling Inspired by Godley SAM approach –Extended to continuous time Ideally suited to financial flows –Model dynamics via a GodleyTable:

Are We “It” Yet? Equation entry:

Are We “It” Yet? Automatically generate “Forrester Diagram” Similar to standard systems engineering –Simulink, Vissim, Ithink, Stella, Vensim And also “Phillips Diagram”...

Are We “It” Yet? Tribute to Bill Phillips... Freely available at com/blogs/qed Updates will be posted there