Tom Rye, Professor of Transport Policy and Mobility Management Transport Research Institute Edinburgh Napier University Transport Appraisal – what it is and why we do it

Session objectives To consider why we need to appraise in transport To explain in brief some methodologies and look at some examples To consider the political benefits of appraisal To understand scenario planning To develop our own appraisal framework To consider why we need to appraise in transport To explain in brief some methodologies and look at some examples To consider the political benefits of appraisal To understand scenario planning To develop our own appraisal framework

When you buy a new house – do you just buy the first one you see? Factors you might take into account: Size Location ….. Maximise benefits of the house within a given budget Benefits/attributes of house - not same for all people Near public transport Near a school Has swimming pool Why appraise?

Transport – similar More projects exist than money to fund them Need some way to choose between them Maximise benefits we get for money spent Achieve objectives Give taxpayer value for money (May) make decision-making transparent Can make decisions easier to defend May make projects more “thought-through” – so more effective/higher quality BUT – we cannot see the project before we buy it – so we have to PREDICT its impacts More projects exist than money to fund them Need some way to choose between them Maximise benefits we get for money spent Achieve objectives Give taxpayer value for money (May) make decision-making transparent Can make decisions easier to defend May make projects more “thought-through” – so more effective/higher quality BUT – we cannot see the project before we buy it – so we have to PREDICT its impacts

Choosing which tram line to build

Some different methods of appraisal

Cost Benefit Analysis 1 You are considering converting a freight- only railway line in suburban Ljubljana to S-Bahn operation with new stations and a train every 15 minutes. What would be the benefits and costs? Benefits Costs You are considering converting a freight- only railway line in suburban Ljubljana to S-Bahn operation with new stations and a train every 15 minutes. What would be the benefits and costs? Benefits Costs

Cost benefit analysis 2 When you have predicted all benefits and costs for the scheme for years into the future… (requires modelling…) Change them into a common unit (€€€€) Add them up Subtract costs from benefits Result, or ratio – shows value of scheme Example – German Standardised Assessment for Infrastructure Investment Any problems with this method? When you have predicted all benefits and costs for the scheme for years into the future… (requires modelling…) Change them into a common unit (€€€€) Add them up Subtract costs from benefits Result, or ratio – shows value of scheme Example – German Standardised Assessment for Infrastructure Investment Any problems with this method?

Objectives-based appraisal Set a number of agreed objectives Assess scheme’s performance in relation to these Do not have to all be in money form Example of this system – UK WebTAG See also sheets handed out Any problems with this method that you can see? Set a number of agreed objectives Assess scheme’s performance in relation to these Do not have to all be in money form Example of this system – UK WebTAG See also sheets handed out Any problems with this method that you can see?

Multi-criteria analysis As objectives-based appraisal, but then: Score performance of scheme against objectives Weight objectives Calculate overall score for each scheme Fund schemes with best score – or those delivering most score per € spent Examples: Many local authorities, UK (local safety schemes) Swiss Cantons e.g. Canton Zuerich As objectives-based appraisal, but then: Score performance of scheme against objectives Weight objectives Calculate overall score for each scheme Fund schemes with best score – or those delivering most score per € spent Examples: Many local authorities, UK (local safety schemes) Swiss Cantons e.g. Canton Zuerich

Key requirements for appraisal Agreement on benefits and costs, or objectives, to include in appraisal Monetary values of costs and benefits (for CBA) Weightings for objectives (for MCA) For larger, longer term schemes – a model Indicators e.g. total accidents; or a rate? But… Size of appraisal should relate to size of scheme Agreement on benefits and costs, or objectives, to include in appraisal Monetary values of costs and benefits (for CBA) Weightings for objectives (for MCA) For larger, longer term schemes – a model Indicators e.g. total accidents; or a rate? But… Size of appraisal should relate to size of scheme

How to use appraisal in decision-making Decisions about new schemes – always political Appraisal can aid political decisions, though – can makes it easier for politicians to say: We have taken everyone‘s needs into account We have looked at many different options, and this one is the best This new railway is excellent value for money Our new system of traffic calming will save XXX lives a year The new busway/road/bikeway/MM scheme will bring €3 of benefits to Ljubljana for every €1 we have spent on it This scheme achieves our objectives Decisions about new schemes – always political Appraisal can aid political decisions, though – can makes it easier for politicians to say: We have taken everyone‘s needs into account We have looked at many different options, and this one is the best This new railway is excellent value for money Our new system of traffic calming will save XXX lives a year The new busway/road/bikeway/MM scheme will bring €3 of benefits to Ljubljana for every €1 we have spent on it This scheme achieves our objectives