School of something FACULTY OF OTHER Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Evaluating cohesion by a MCA framework : application at a TEN-T case study N. Thomopoulos, Dr S.M. Grant-Muller, Dr M.R. Tight EU Cohesion Policy: Research Opportunities and Policy Challenges European Policies Research Centre University of Strathclyde Glasgow, 5 December 2008

2 Introduction Photo: P. Mens - Oresundsbron Photos: Egnatia Odos S.A. Photo: S. Madsen - Oresundsbron Operating TEN-Ts

3 Introduction TENs COHESION EVALUATION Transport This is a complex issue with various parameters The focus here will be on transport cohesion

4 Transport projects assessment Methodology used for transport project assessment in EU-25 by mode CBA: Cost-Benefit Analysis, MCA: Multi-Criteria Analysis, QM: Quantitative Method, Other: Other qualitative (combination of) method. If (for example) both CBA and MCA are used, the figure reflects CBA. Source: Odgard et al (2005)

5 Cohesion in transport assessment Although included in EU & national policy documents, cohesion and equity are not included in all national appraisal methods Country Equity assessed Appraisal method Cohesion assessed LevelMethod Czech Republic  MCA  National MCA Hungary  MCA  EU/National MCA Spain  MCA  -- The Netherlands  CBA / QM  National CBA United Kingdom  MCA  EU/National MCA Source: Odgaard et al (2005)

6 How are cohesion and equity measured in transport evaluation? There are various measures: Source: Ramjerdi (2006) Cohesion/Equity measure Features Statistical Examine the distribution of a variable in a given sample population Welfare Use a welfare function to incorporate cohesion considerations. Based on welfare economics Axiomatic Define the properties that a desired measure should fulfill Cohesion in transport evaluation

7 1. Project objective(s) identification 2. Stakeholders’ identification 3. Project objective(s) re- evaluation by stakeholders 4. Viewpoint on equity theory identification 5. Viewpoint on priorities about equity forms identification AHP 5. Quantification of impacts using relevant indicators 6. Impact distribution evaluation by Gini/Theil indices to derive a quantified value for each equity form 7. Linear sum of all equity impacts and contrast with pre-defined viewpoints AHP methodology “One has to prepare the ground by correctly specifying the problems, selecting priorities and quantifying policy targets” (Molle, 2006)

8 AHP survey Example question of the AHP questionnaire

9 Indicators results GDP/capita annual rate of change by NUTS-3 between (Source: Observatory - Egnatia Odos)

10 Indicators results Average daily traffic p.a. (Source: Observatory - Egnatia Odos)

11 Indicators results Cohesion impacts of Egnatia Odos based on indicators statistical analysis Need for an axiomatic approach to complement statistical analysis

12 Conclusion  Cohesion can be included in the appraisal and evaluation of large transport infrastructure projects  MCA methods are a useful tool for cohesion and equity assessment of large transport infrastructure projects  Ex-post evaluation needs to be integrated in project evaluation  make use of strategic evaluations  The current needs to achieve this and incorporate an MCA approach are: use of common terminology consistent target setting and monitoring ex-post evaluation of large transport infrastructure projects an overall assessment framework evaluating both direct and indirect impacts

13 Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Thank you for your attention Questions and comments are welcome!