Integrating ICT questions in the work of National Statistical Organizations Harsha de Silva Lead Economist, LIRNEasia WDR Expert Forum some thoughts for discussion

The digital divide  Is the digital divide Closing? Widening?  Or, does it depends on how you look at it?

Looks like it is closing?  “80% of the people in the world have never heard a dial tone” Kofi Annan, 1999  “More than 80% of people in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Philippines have used a phone in the last 3 months” LIRNEasia, 2006

Looks like it is widening?

How much do we really know?  What data do we have? Lot of supply side data Very little on the demand side  Who is collecting data? Operators; subscribers or owners National Regulatory Agencies [through network operators]; o wners Central Banks; users, but limited International bodies like ITU [through NRAs]; owners Research agencies; u sers [owners and non owners]  What about National Statistical Organizations?

National Statistical Organizations  Census Information collected from every member of the population  Population and household census; every 10 years  Industry census, agriculture census etc.  Sample surveys Information only from a sub-sector of a population

From the time of Lord Buddha  First recorded census conducted in 500 BC in the Persian Empire; Darius I For land grants and taxation  Now almost every country

Has legal authority  India Census  Since 1872; every 10 years; 2001  Compulsory for every citizen to answer the entire questionnaire truthfully; penalties possible Sample surveys  Household Income and Expenditure surveys Communication expenditure  Some other countries in the region

Developed country examples  US  Canada

Computer and Internet use 2003; Released October 2005  Characteristics: Internet Age: years; 65.3% Race: Asian; 66.7% Household type: Married family; 67% HH size: 3+; 66,4% Presence of school aged children (6 -17): Y; 67% Education level of H-Holder: adv degree; 81% HH income: USD 100,000+; 92.2% Region: West;59.2

Digital divide; perspectives  ICT centric Connectivity  ICT literacy and skills Knowledge

Digital divide; perspectives 2  Absolute Have vs. have not  Relative Have more vs. have vs. have less

What are we measuring?  Type of ICT Fixed phones, mobile, computer, Internet etc  Variable of interest Income Education Age Gender Geographic location etc.

HH penetration over time 2000: Internet and mobile phones have almost same penetration.

Differences in penetration Top vs. bottom income deciles Internet and mobile phones have almost same penetration. But the divide is much greater for Internet than for mobile phones. Why? Telephone (FL) divide is widening again. Why?

HH penetration, by income, 2000* Mobile phone penetration is higher than Internet at lower income levels while it is lower at the highest level… J-curves; students… FL telephone penetration dropping at the lower income level. Substitution of mobiles for FL telephones?

Trends; divide getting worse? 1996: 2000; trend lines are getting steeper

Distribution analysis; gini Distribution more equitable in 2000 than in The middle income groups mainly responsible for the addition of new Internet users.

Why is this information important?  To dig deeper More than what meets the eye Problems are not the same across all variables Solution are not ‘one size fits all’  To get a user perspective Not all users are owners [US, Canada examples were for owners]  Bottom of the Pyramid in India: 80% of telephone users do not own a phone  Internet is much worse  To understand technology adoption VoIP, Wi-MAX and a host of others  And much more…

Way forward  Data collection National Statistical Organizations  Census  Dedicated sample surveys  Riders on other surveys  Analysis NSO themselves Regulators Public interest research organizations like LIRNEasia Other interested parties  Action Policy: Governments Strategy: Operators Checks and balances: Regulators

 Thank you