Title PM2.5: Comparison of modelling and measurements Presented by Hilde Fagerli SB, Geneva, September 7-9, 2009.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Inventory Issues and Modeling- Some Examples Brian Timin USEPA/OAQPS October 21, 2002.
Advertisements

N emissions and the changing landscape of air quality Rob Pinder US EPA Office of Research and Development Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division.
Photochemical Model Performance for PM2.5 Sulfate, Nitrate, Ammonium, and pre-cursor species SO2, HNO3, and NH3 at Background Monitor Locations in the.
Finnish BC emission inventory, and national characteristics and user practice influence on domestic wood combustion emissions Kaarle J. Kupiainen 1,2,
FIRE AND BIOFUEL CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNUAL MEAN AEROSOL MASS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES ROKJIN J. PARK, DANIEL J. JACOB, JENNIFER A. LOGAN AGU FALL.
Using field campaigns results to reduce uncertainties in inventories Wenche Aas, Knut Breivik and Karl Espen Yttri And material from: Eiko Nemitz (CEH,
Section highlights Organic Aerosol and Field Studies.
PM in Sweden HC Hansson and Christer Johansson ITM, Stockholm University.
Title EMEP Unified model Importance of observations for model evaluation Svetlana Tsyro MSC-W / EMEP TFMM workshop, Lillestrøm, 19 October 2010.
Title Performance of the EMEP aerosol model: current results and further needs Presented by Svetlana Tsyro (EMEP/MSC-W) EMEP workshop on Particulate Matter.
Christian Seigneur AER San Ramon, CA
1 Non-linear effects in modelling PM 10 and PM 2,5 contributions from anthropogenic sources Clemens Mensink, Felix Deutsch, Jean Vankerkom and Liliane.
PM mapping in Scotland, 2007 Andrew Kent. What are we presenting today? 1) Context to the work 2) Modelling process 3) Model results 4) Future work possibilities.
RAINS review 2004 The RAINS model: Health impacts of PM.
REFERENCES Maria Val Martin 1 C. L. Heald 1, J.-F. Lamarque 2, S. Tilmes 2 and L. Emmons 2 1 Colorado State University 2 NCAR.
Improving regional air quality model results at the city scale : results from the EC4MACS project INERIS : Bertrand Bessagnet, Etienne Terrenoire, Augustin.
The robustness of the source receptor relationships used in GAINS Hilde Fagerli, EMEP/MSC-W EMEP/MSC-W.
Intensive measurements and modelling of size segregated chemical composition of aerosols in June 2006 and Jan 2007 Wenche Aas, Rami Alfarra, Elke Bieber,
NATURAL AND TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES ON PARTICULATE MATTER IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EPA REGIONAL HAZE RULE Rokjin J. Park ACCESS VII,
Simulation of European emissions impacts on particulate matter concentrations in 2010 using Models-3 Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE.
EMEP INTENSIVE MEASUREMENT PERIODS IN CLOSE PARTNERSSHIP WITH EU PROJECTS Wenche Aas, Andres Alastuey, Francesco Canonaco, Fabrizia Cavalli, Franco Lucarelli,
2004 Technical Summit Overview January 26-27, 2004 Tempe, AZ.
Title Progress in the development and results of the UNIFIED EMEP model Presented by Leonor Tarrason EMEP/MSC-W 29 th TFIAM meeting, Amiens, France,
Tore Flatlandsmo Berglen EACE workshop June 2007 Air quality, ozone and aerosols in Asia. A model study Tore Flatlandsmo Berglen 1,2, Terje K. Berntsen.
U.S.-Canada Air Quality Agreement: Transboundary PM Science Assessment Report to the Air Quality Committee June, 2004.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Contribution from MSC-W to the review of the Gothenburg protocol – Reports 2006 TFIAM, Rome, 16-18th May, 2006.
Modelling perspective: Key limitations of current country projection data in transboundary modelling activities. What improvements are needed? Jan Eiof.
Title Atmospheric Modelling at MSC-W David Simpson and Leonor Tarrason TFIAM - Haarlem, 7-9 May 2003.
PM Model Performance & Grid Resolution Kirk Baker Midwest Regional Planning Organization November 2003.
Model Evaluation Comparing Model Output to Ambient Data Christian Seigneur AER San Ramon, California.
Operational Evaluation and Comparison of CMAQ and REMSAD- An Annual Simulation Brian Timin, Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Tom Braverman USEPA/OAQPS.
Source Attribution Modeling to Identify Sources of Regional Haze in Western U.S. Class I Areas Gail Tonnesen, EPA Region 8 Pat Brewer, National Park Service.
Southeast US air chemistry: directions for future SEAC 4 RS analyses Tropospheric Chemistry Breakout Group DRIVING QUESTION: How do biogenic and anthropogenic.
Transpacific transport of anthropogenic aerosols: Integrating ground and satellite observations with models AAAR, Austin, Texas October 18, 2005 Colette.
04/12/011 The contribution of Earth degassing to the atmospheric sulfur budget By Hans-F. Graf, Baerbel Langmann, Johann Feichter From Chemical Geology.
Implementation Workgroup Meeting December 6, 2006 Attribution of Haze Workgroup’s Monitoring Metrics Document Status: 1)2018 Visibility Projections – Alternative.
AoH/MF Meeting, San Diego, CA, Jan 25, 2006 WRAP 2002 Visibility Modeling: Summary of 2005 Modeling Results Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Chao-Jung.
BACKGROUND AEROSOL IN THE UNITED STATES: NATURAL SOURCES AND TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION Daniel J. Jacob and Rokjin J. Park with support from EPRI, EPA/OAQPS.
Institute for Environment and Sustainability1 Date & Time 09: :30Status review and improvements  BaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)
Impact of various emission inventories on modelling results; impact on the use of the GMES products Laurence Rouïl
Calculation of Background PM 2.5 Values
Svetlana Tsyro, David Simpson, Leonor Tarrason
Evaluating Revised Tracking Metric for Regional Haze Planning
Continuous measurement of airborne particles and gases
M. Samaali, M. Sassi, V. Bouchet
Svetlana Tsyro, David Simpson, Leonor Tarrasón
Steve Griffiths, Rob Lennard and Paul Sutton* (*RWE npower)
Wenche Aas and Karl Espen Yttri (EMEP/CCC)
ACTRIS Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) Network and new filter off-line techniques to measure PM chemical composition and determine organic aerosol.
Assessment of Atmospheric PM in the Slovak Republic
Multi-model and Observed PM Trends
Statistical analysis of the secondary inorganic aerosol in Hungary using background measurements and model calculations Zita Ferenczi   Hungarian Meteorological.
Status of data from EMEP intensive period 2008/2009
17th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting
Title Effect of horizontal resolution on PM calculations:
TFMM PM Assessment Report
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008
Title Inorganic PM at selected sites during intensive period 2008:
The EuroDelta inter-comparison, Phase I Variability of model responses
BOP, a research program on PM10 and PM2.5 in the Netherlands
H. Fagerli, TFMM Bordeux, april 2008
Title Why do we underestimate Elemental Carbon in PM?
19th TFMM Meeting, Geneva May 3rd 2018
Lessons learnt from the EMEP intensive measurements
RECEPTOR MODELLING OF AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER
Title Recent developments of the EMEP/MSC-W model aiming at PM improvement Work by MSC-W modelling group presented by Svetlana Tsyro TFMM.
Maarten van Loon and Leonor Tarrasón (met.no/EMEP)
First use of satellite AOD data for EMEP model validation for PM
EMEP/MSC-W How can EMEP Intensive measurement periods help to improve modelling of acidification, eutrophication, O3 and PM? Views from MSC-W H. Fagerli.
Svetlana Tsyro, David Simpson, Leonor Tarrason
Presentation transcript:

Title PM2.5: Comparison of modelling and measurements Presented by Hilde Fagerli SB, Geneva, September 7-9, 2009

OUTLINE Meteorologisk Institutt met.no To what extend do the models in use reproduce the background PM2.5 measurements? What are the main systematic biases and unknowns? What kind of mistakes in policy advice could the models be accountable for?

PM2.5 in the EMEP Unified Model Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Anthropogenic SIA: SO 4 2-, NO 3 -, NH 4 + PPM 2.5 : (OC, EC*, dust)‏ Natural Sea salt Mineral dust Water Emissions EMEP (SO x, NO x, NH 3, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10 EC/OC factors based on Kupiainen & Klimont, 2006 Parameterisations of production in the model EQSAM

The recent changes in model runs affecting PM results Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Change of meteorological driver – from 10-year old HIRLAM version (PARLAM 50 km) to up-to-date version of HIRLAM (0.2x0.2º)‏ Resulted in concentration decrease for all aerosols, e.g. PM 2.5 is 20 to 40% lower Model revision – revised scheme for night-time formation of HNO3 Resulted 10-35% decrease of NO 3 and NH 4

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no ?5 - 10dust 8 (12)‏< 5 (10-20 coast)‏ Na + ? - 30 (24)‏ - 28 (35)‏ - 44 (-13)‏ - 34 (7)‏ ? Bias% PPM NH water NO SO SIA Relative contributions to PM2.5 based on model calculations for 2007 (SOA excluded)‏ PM2.5: Bias = -41% (-23)‏ In brackets: 2006 results with PARLAM-PS meteorology and ACID chemistry Note that NO3- and NH4+ are filter pack measurements

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no In Tsyro et al. (2007), m odel calculated EC were compared with observations from EMEP EC/OC and CARBOSOL campaigns for July 2002 – Oct 2004  EC was underestimated by 30% on average  The results consistently indicated possible inaccuracies in EC/OC emission estimates from wood burning: overestimation for northern countries underestimation for southern countries  The results were not so conclusive with regard to EC (PM) emissions from road traffic and other mobile sources, as we did not have enough information to draw conclusions from… Primary PM

Seasonal analysis: winter Meteorologisk Institutt met.no The results suggest: overestimation of wood burning emissions in northern Europe underestimation of wood burning emissions in central/southern Europe Emissions spatial distribution … ? Unaccounted local sources … ? EC underestimation by 30-60% at 7 sites in central and southern Europe Main sources: road traffic and other mobile sources Our results indicate that these emissions may be underestimated Problems with dispersion? Other sources?.... Forest fires Agricultural burning Seasonal analysis: summer Extra info

Model bias for SIA (2007) Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

EMEP intensive measurements: June-06 Jan-07 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no ES17 !!! only 2-3 days with data per month

Model bias for PM2.5 and SIA for 2007 (only 3 EMEP sites) ‏ Meteorologisk Institutt met.no *) SIA includes also coarse aerosols SIA Low modelled PM2.5: No SOA, underestimated SIA

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Water Accuracy depends on the accuracy of SIA calculations Lack of measurements for verification Natural On average - minor components of PM2.5 Not regulated, but necessary for PM2.5 mass closure sea salt - intensive data show a considerable underestimation which is not seen in EMEP monitoring sites – look at data dust – practically no observations chemical speciation (Ca, Mg, K…) would help

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Contribution of OC to PM1 From Zhang et al, 2007 Pie charts show the average mass concentration and chemical composition: Organics: Green, sulfate (red), nitrate (blue), ammonium (orange) and chloride (purple)‏

SOA SOA theories/models still changing rapidly and dramatically Still strong need to constrain theories/models with ambient measurements /14C, levoglucosan, AMS, etc cf EMEP, EUCAARI campaigns Examples: estimates of global BSOA production: –0-180 Tg(C)/yr (Best estimate: 88) Hallquist et al, 2009 –9-50 Tg(C)/yr Kanakidou et al., 2009 Note that the best estimate of Hallquist et al. lies outside the range of uncertainty in the Kanakidou estimate

Uncertainty in SOA modelling Results from the EMEP model with different VBS-based SOA approaches. BSOA: Biogenic SOA, ASOA: anthropogenic SOA, WOOD: OC from domestic/residential wood-burning, FFUEL: OC from fossil-fuel sources, GBND: background OC.

Overview PM 2.5 ?SOA ?Water ?Dust ≈0 (?)‏Na+ NegativeNH 4 + NegativeNO 3 - NegativeSO 4 2- NegativeSIA ?PPM2.5 BiasComponent

Implications for policy Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Variable performance (or unknown) of model results for PM constituents and/or missing components results in inaccurate calculations of PM2.5 chemical composition Difficult to design the optimal reduction strategy Underestimation of the background levels of PM2.5 not stringent enough emission reduction measures too little effective formation of SIA => underestimate effect of emission reductions (?)‏ affects calculations of SR relationships and scenarios (not enough long range transport?)

The end

Comparison with EMEP observations for 2006 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Bias RRMSEModObsNsite PM NH Na NO SO SIA Note: Aerosol model based on ACID.rv2_7_10; PARLAM meteorology

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no  Quality of emission data for PPM2.5 is crucial for the accuracy of model results for PPM2.5  Sound description of removal processes, esp. wet scavenging  Boundary conditions (?) ‏  Primary PM: What is needed for improvement of modelling:

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no  SO4 formation…  NO3 formation….  NH4 formation…  Sound description of removal processes, esp. wet scavenging  Boundary conditions (?) ‏  Appropriate observations for validation of results SIA: What is needed for improved modelling

Comparison with EMEP observations for 2007 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Bias RRMSEModObsNsite PM NH Na NO SO SIA Note: filter-pack measurements for SIA components and Na, i.e. no size cut-off PM2.5 measurements: not all sites use reference gravic method