Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on EU and global level: Integrating agriculture, land use, environmental and socio- economic aspects with EUruralis 2.0 Laxenburg, November 29 th 2007 Henk Westhoek, Bas Eickhout and Hans van Grinsven

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3 Shifting approaches Policy agenda Sustainable development: –integrated and coherent policies –stronger global dimension Scientific agenda Complex questions: –Assessment and balancing trade-offs in 3-P domain –from technical solutions to integrated policies, combining policy areas, scales and longer time horizons

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies4 Examples of emerging questions Effect of liberalisation of the CAP on nutrient emissions and biodiversity; Effect of nutrient policies (including WFD) on agricultural production, rural economies, land use, GHG emissions and biodiversity; Effect of biofuel directive on food production/prices, fertiliser use, nutrient emissions and biodiversity (land use), Not only in Europe but also elsewhere.

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies5 Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs Emission to air / exceedence critical loads Agriculture GHG emissions  Climate change

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies6 Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs Emission to air / exceedence critical loads Agriculture Emission to water Land use Rural economy Biodiversity: terrestrial and aquatic; GHG emissions  Climate change Major drivers

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies7 Drivers for biodiversity and health effects CAP, WTO EU N – dir’s land use N-intensity technology area NH 3 NO 3 Targets Biodiversity terrestrial aquatic Health Kyoto, LRTAP EU N - dir’s energy intensity energy source technology (infrastructure) NOx ……. Agriculture Energy&traffic Effects Population & GDP rural water air remote

Eururalis 2.0 Discussing the future of rural Europe

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10 Model framework Eururalis

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies11 Major driving force I: macro-economic growth

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies12 Major driving force II: EU population

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies13 World Trade Growth in Global Economy (A1) scenario (% change, )

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies14 Changing role of farming: decreasing economical significance

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies15 Changing role of farming: importance for land use and landscape Agri land-use remains strong (>40%) High impact on carbon, erosion, biodiversity, nutrients, landscape

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies16 B1 Global Cooperation 2030

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies17 B2 Regional Communities 2030

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies18 Biodiversity indicator

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies19 Terrestrial biodiversity declines in baseline: fragmentation

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies20 Biodiversity loss in nature areas

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Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies22 Policy matters: are biofuels the solution? 2030 (GE) Low ambitionHigh ambition

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies23 Trade off: landuse change in Latin-America

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies24 More biofuels: more N needed +13% +5% Source: IMAGE (Bouwman et al., 2006) Baseline GC-extra biofuels

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies25 CAP, WTO EU N – dir’s land use N-intensity technology area NH 3 NO 3 Targets Biodiversity terrestrial aquatic Health Kyoto, LRTAP EU N - dir’s energy intensity energy source technology (infrastructure) NOx ……. Agriculture Energy&traffic Effects Population & GDP rural water air remote

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies26 NO 3 in groundwater N & P in surface water NH 3 N 2 O, CH 4, CO 2 fertilizer Agriculture manure EU: environmental legislation Kyoto protocol Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution National Emission Ceiling Directive IPPC -Directive CLRTAP-Gothenborg Protocol Air Quality Directives Thematic CAP reform + C.C. Animal welfare Rural Development Soil Strategy Birds and habitats directives Nitrates Directive IPPC / CLRTAP Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive Groundwater Directive Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies27 LEITAP/IMAGE CAPRICLUE-s Possible linking of models MITERRA Biodiversity model: terrestrial / aquatic Drivers: Population GDP Energy prices Biofuel policy Trade policies Drivers: Climate policies Environmental policies RAINS/ GAINS

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies28 The EC4MACS model system GAINSPOLESPRIMES CAPRI TM5EMEP CCE-CL TREMOVE BENEFITS Global/ hemispheric boundary conditions European policy drivers Energy Transport Atmosphere Agriculture Ecosystems GEM-E3 Cost- effectiveness Impacts

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies29 Complex questions  complex integrated models? Partly yes, but … Questions link different policy or scientific areas For many areas models already exist Investing in combination of existing models probably more efficient than development of new models Policy questions are not always complex  also maintain less complex approaches

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