PROFESSOR A.E. HILL DIRECTOR NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE, SOUTHAMPTON UK OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CHANGE What does it mean? Ocean-atmosphere-ice system out of normal balance Changes at an unprecedented rate (last 1 M yrs) Why does it matter? Global change impacts Europe Local and regional impacts Impacts on the Global economy The oceans are integral to understanding and predicting changes in the global environment OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-ICE BALANCE

What is going on now ? fundamental understanding of basic earth system processes Continuous awareness of change sustained observing What is going to happen next – especially locally ? predictive capability Finding solutions evidence based policy, regulation, technology solutions, innovations to grasp opportunities and minimise risks LIVING ON A CHANGING EARTH: THE CHALLENGES FOR SCIENCE

SEA LEVEL CHANGE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ARCTIC ICE THINNING OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE - HOT TOPICS

MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGES Past 200+ years observed, next 100 years predicted global rise of approximately cm during the past 100 years (IPPC 3 rd Assessment Report) IPCC Third Assessment Report Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level Predicted 9-88 cm (central value 48 cm)

OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE EXTREME SEA LEVEL EVENTS THAT CAUSES FLOODS

COASTAL AREAS AT RISK By 2100 The 1 in 100 year flood level (shown here in red) may become a 1 in 10 year level

SEA LEVEL COMMITMENT – living with the consequences Sea level will continue to rise even after CO 2 emissions are reduced Third IPCC Assessment Report

EUROPEAN SEA LEVEL OBSERVING NETWORK (ESEAS)

REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES: THE ABILITY TO PREDICT? NORTHWEST EUROPE STORM SURGE SCENARIOS : Computed change in 50-year surge Range of values -20 to +40cm. Storm Surges with HADCM2 climateStorm Surges with ECHAM4 – T102 Source: Proudman Oceangraphic Laboratory

Source: Sabine et al (2004) Science, 305: ATLANTIC PACIFIC INDIAN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION Fossil Fuel CO 2 is invading the Ocean

The Extra CO 2 is Acidifying the Ocean Source: Caldeira & Wickett (2003) Nature, 425:365

Particular Concern for Organisms with Chalk Shells or Skeletons coral reefs coralline algae foraminifera coccolithophores pteropods Source: Royal Society report on ocean acidification (2005)

Malformed coccoliths at high CO 2 Source: Riebesell et al (2000) Nature, 407: High CO 2 Normal CO 2

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION What We Know 1.Ocean acidification is already happening 2.If emissions continue oceans will inevitably become ever more acidic 3.Coral skeletons and chalk shells will be affected

What We Need to Find Out 1.How will the organisms be affected by thinner shells and weaker skeletons? 2.What other effects will follow from lowered pH? 3.What will be the knock-on effects on marine ecosystems and the ocean carbon cycle? “Thus chemical effects of CO2 on the marine environment may be as great a cause for concern as the radiative effects of CO2 on Earth’s climate.” [Caldeira & Wickett (2005) J. Geophys. Res. 110, C09S04] OCEAN ACIDIFICATION FISH AND CHIPS or JELLYFISH AND CHIPS ?

THE ARCTIC OCEAN: SHRINKING SEA ICE COVER

Bad news for Polar Bears... but also...

RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE: The freshening of Arctic and sub-Polar seas As the sea ice melts the Arctic ocean is freshening. This will lessen the production of dense salty deep water and could result in changes to the ocean circulation

NORTHWEST EUROPE IS WARMER THAN IT SHOULD BE

FRESHENING OF HIGH LATITUDE WATERS COULD SLOW SINKING AND RELEASE OF HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE The temperature rise/fall relative to pre- industrial for the first decade after a collapse in 2050 (Hadley Centre ) With a simple model the probability of collapse by 2100 is about 30%

RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE FOR DEVELOPING A LONG TERM OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR ADVANCE WARNING

WHO WILL EUROPE‘S MAJOR TRADING PARTNER BE IN 2025? Will Europe increasingly face north? Economic, Social and Environmental implications? The North West Passage in September 2005

MARINE SCIENCE THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES FACING EUROPE: SOLUTIONS THROUGH PREDICTION - NOW IS THE TIME TO INVEST Big questions Massive implications (environmental, social, economic) Fundamental marine science at the heart of these Addressing What is going on now ? How can we be more continually aware of changes ? What is going to happen next? What solutions can help us live with a changing world? Needing A healthy marine science base (people and the major infrastructure to support marine science) Robust approach and funding mechanisms for sustained marine observing Well focussed coordinated marine science programmes Strong knowledge transfer - marine science into policy and business opportunity

CONCLUSIONS WE LIVE ON A PLANET NOW OUTSIDE ITS NATURAL RANGE AND CHANGING AT AN UNPRECEDENTED RATE The Oceans are integral to understanding global change The consequences of global change for Europe present both risks and opportunities Key to preparation is better sustained observation and prediction of marine systems Coordinated research to inform policies at European level and to give European businesses the competitive edge is vital

OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE