MNRTF Future Michigan Department of Natural Resources.

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Presentation transcript:

MNRTF Future Michigan Department of Natural Resources

Presentation Parameters The figures presented are projections and estimates based on historical trends. Many factors are outside of the Department’s control and may cause temporary fluctuations.

Program Parameters Acquisition of land or rights in land Development of public recreation facilities Administration of the fund Interest and earnings on corpus Allows expenditure of 1/3 of revenue until corpus reaches $500 million

MNRTF Corpus As of September 30, 2006 –Corpus: $300.3 million –Stabilization Reserve: $12.2 million Stabilization reserve was created in 2003 to help ensure the continuity of the MNRTF into the future

Revenue Trends Natural gas makes up roughly 80% of Michigan’s mineral revenue Natural gas production is decreasing at a rate of 5 - 6% per year Currently, prices are ~$6 - $7/mcf, and are projected to remain close to this level in the foreseeable future Natural gas prices peaked at ~$14/mcf in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina

Gas Production vs. Revenue

Oil Production vs. Revenue

Revenue Trends Because of the anticipated completion of the Section 29 obligation, the MNRTF is projected to see an increase in expendable mineral revenue (1/3 of total mineral revenue) for application year 2008 projects Estimated 1/3 of mineral revenue –FY2007: $12,150,900 –FY2008: $18,129,000 Mineral revenue income to the MNRTF is projected to begin a decline after 2008

Interest and Investment Income As the corpus of the fund grows, investment income will grow; available investment income is projected to exceed expendable mineral revenue (1/3 total mineral revenue) sometime in the next three years

MNRTF Growth At current revenue estimates, –Corpus will reach $500 million in the next 10 to 15 years

Estimated Revenue for Projects CycleRevenueInterestTotal In this scenario, it is presumed the MNRTF $500 million cap will be reached in FY2016.

Conclusions The future growth of the MNRTF is closely tied to investment income and the growth of the corpus Because of the importance of investment income to the amount available for projects, a strong stabilization reserve is essential to mitigate volatility

Thank you Questions?