Indicators for policy support of atmosphere related environmental problems Robert Koelemeijer National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ETC - Air and Climate Change

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC2 Contents Indicators + examples Stratospheric ozone Air pollution Climate change  Present status of indicators  How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC3 Indicators: DPSIR Indicators: used to analyse developments measure distance-to-target

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC4 Stratospheric ozone Policy objective (Montreal protocol) : phase-out use of ozone depleting substances

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC5 Stratospheric ozone State indicators: Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME,...

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC6 Stratospheric ozone Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story: –total column density is the relevant quantity –accuracy sufficient (few %) –continuity of observations OK Future observations needed: –will ozone layer recover? –interaction with climate change?

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC7 Air quality Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase) –Components: O 3, NO, NO 2, VOCs, SO 2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics, heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg),... –Sites: street / urban background / rural background –Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single measurement. –Some of the drawbacks: necessarily limited density of stations different network design per country

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC8 Concentration NO 2 (794 Airbase stations) NO2 annual mean concentration (ug/m3) street urban rural EU limit value

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC9 NO 2 map Yearly average 2000 Urban background

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC10 GOME observations: tropospheric NO2 Image courtesy KNMI

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC11 ATSR-2: aerosols over land Image courtesy TNO-FEL

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC12 MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC13 Air pollution Synergy between ground-based and satellite observations could be further explored Satellite measurements Model Assimilation Ground-based measurements EmissionsConcentrations (analysis & forecast) Depositions

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC14 Air pollution Satellites should sample boundary layer  small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required –look between clouds –resolve source areas priority species: –PM10 and PM2.5 –Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC))

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC15 Climate Change Kyoto-monitoring: emissions estimated through “activity” approach (emission = activity x emission factor) reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC) same method for all years ( )

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC16 GHG inverse modelling Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO 2 and CH 4 might give useful constraints on sources and sinks. But research has only started recently. Some bottlenecks: –Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO) –Global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are rather well known (< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and strengths of natural sources and sinks. –Constraining anthropogenic CH 4 seems better feasible: shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known and of similar magnitude as natural emissions.

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC17 Other forcings and feedbacks Climate change policy heavily depends on science (IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to future. Model validation necessary to improve projections –Greenhouse gases –Aerosols (land & ocean) –Clouds Aerosols and tropospheric O 3 (precursors) not in Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important both for climate change and air quality.

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC18 State and impact indicators for Europe have been developed recently by ETC-ACC. –Temperature, precipitation, extremes –Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice) –Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season, shifts in species distribution) –Ecosystems and biodiversity –Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves) Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover.  Need for long-term satellite observational records State + impact indicators

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC19 Climate change Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973 Source: IPCC, 2001

Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC20 Conclusions Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend detection and long-term continuity assured Air quality: assessments may improve through synergy between ground-based and satellite measurements Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and satellite observations may constrain CO 2 and CH 4 sources & sinks. Research recently started. But unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO 2 emission inventories. Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific progress (model validation, constraining natural fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections.