INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN DAY Berlin, 24 th February 2005

World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook – 2000 World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth World Energy Outlook – 2002 World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: World Energy Investment Outlook World Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Outlook – 2005 Insights: Middle East and North Africa Energy Outlook: Implications for the World

The context Global Energy Trends Energy Market Outlook Oil, gas, coal, electricity, renewables Regional Outlooks Russia: an in-depth study Energy and Development World Alternative Policy Scenario WEO 2004 Structure

Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario

World Primary Energy Demand Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Hydro power Other renewables Mtoe Mtoe

Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia

Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits” The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints expand

CO 2 Emissions, CO 2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity

Alternative Policy Scenario

Analyses impact of new environmental & energy- security policies worldwide  OECD: Policies currently under consideration  Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of more- efficient technology. Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

World Primary Energy Demand in Reference & Alternative Scenarios Coal demand falls most, partially offset by more use of renewables

Percentage of Global Electricity Generation from Fuel Cells in the OECD regions, 2030 Electricity production from fuel cells will grow from 2% to 4% of global production, mainly concentrated in the OECD countries Reference ScenarioAlternative Scenario 341 TWh498 TWh

Global CO 2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios CO 2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative Scenario in 2030, a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO 2 Alternative Scenario Mt of CO 2 Reference Scenario Mt of CO 2

EU CO 2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios With new policies, EU CO 2 emissions stabilise by 2010 and fall after 2020 Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario Mt of CO Mt of CO 2 Kyoto Target

Contributory Factors in CO 2 Reduction Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49% 10% 21% 12% 8% OECD 63% 1% 21% 15% Transition economies 67% 7% 17% 5% 4% Developing countries 58% World End-use efficiency gains 7% Fuel switching in end uses 20% Increased renewables in power generation 10% Increased nuclear in power generation 5% Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

Summary & Conclusions

IEA H2/FC Activities IEA Secretariat: Policy Analysis Policy studies (WEO, others) International cooperation Implementing Agreements: R,D&D H 2 production & storage, stationary and mobile fuel cells, CO 2 capture & storage, system integration … Hydrogen Co-ordination Group: Policy Policy advice, strategies, cooperation

Summary & Conclusions On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than now Energy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyond Vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase as oil & gas trade through key chokepoints expands But projected market trends raise serious concerns:  Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions  Rising CO 2 emissions  Huge energy-investment needs  Persistent energy poverty Policies under consideration of technology could substantially reduce energy demand and emissions But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment (e.g. CCS, Hydrogen, Advanced Nuclear)