“ We are in the midst of redefining our basic ideas about what enterprise & organization & even being human are about -- how value is created -- how careers are pursued ”-2006 A prediction: “At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we know them today, will either disappear or be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just the next 15 ~10 years. White-collar employment as we've known it is dead. Job security as we've known it is over. Over and gone” A prediction: “At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we know them today, will either disappear or be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just the next 15 ~10 years. White-collar employment as we've known it is dead. Job security as we've known it is over. Over and gone” We are well into the next great wave of change---

February 08, 2005Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez5 Director of Emerging Thought Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Human Interface Manager Valuer of Intangible Assets Director of Emerging Thought Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Human Interface Manager Valuer of Intangible Assets Likely jobs w/in next 10 years Have Existed since 2003

Why bother with the future "If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years… you're out of your mind." CEO, Coca Cola

“When the rate of change outside your company exceeds the rate of change inside your company, disaster is imminent” Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble

What we were predicting 10 years ago….

What is being Predicted Now : What the World Will Look Like in 2025

Looking to the future: common mistakes… Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities Simply extrapolating current trends- (& in isolation of other trends/factors) Thinking of only one future

Looking to the future: common mistakes…

Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticators The study was complex, but the conclusion can be summarized simply: the experts bombed. Not only were they worse than statistical models, they could barely eke out a tie with the proverbial dart- throwing chimps. The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ” Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things, FUTURE BABBLE Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better By Dan Gardner 305 pp. Dutton. $26.95.

Consider the "Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies"Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies

“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. Marshall McLuhan We look at the present through a rear view mirror ”

“It has been moved and seconded that we stick our heads in the sand.”

The Newsonomics of Oblivion (March-2011) Piecemeal change is a dead-end, given the converging downward spirals of the business. Only massive, digital- first strategies and re- organizations that scrap old structures, budgets, job descriptions — and, massively, costs The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

Rupert Murdoch iPad daily:

…in the ol’ 2 nd Wave World People Subscribed to Media

The point is not so much to predict “the” future… but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable patterns of established trends The point is not so much to predict “the” future… but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable patterns of established trends How best to prepare for the future

The Trends are very clear: Increasing: Technological capabilities & capacities Computing (AI & BI); Nano & Bio-tech; Communication & Transportation… Population Decreasing: Resources Separation – Economic, Psycho & Socio…. near total of privacy …

Long term trends are very clear--

Law of Accelerating Returns

4 Factors Impacting Future Forecasting Accuracy: Continuous Advance of: 1)Info-Processing Power 2)Data & Text -Algorithms 3)Sensor data 4)Individuals in the InfoSphere

Ergo: How best to think about the future? Think of the drivers of change Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres What “Drivers” Have We Observed?

TechnoSphere Drivers Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives. "The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity - by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless - Intelligent Tech Convergent Media

Radar Networks Connections between people Social Networking Groupware Javascript Weblogs Databases File Systems HTTP Keyword Search USENET Wikis Websites Directory Portals Web PC Era RSS Widgets PC’s Office 2.0 XML RDF SPARQL AJAX FTP IRC SOAP Mashups File Servers Social Media Sharing Lightweight Collaboration ATOM Web 4.0 Semantic Search Semantic Databases Distributed Search Intelligent personal agents Java SaaS Web 2.0 Flash OWL HTML SGML SQL Gopher P2P The Web The PC Windows MacOS SWRL OpenID BBS MMO’s VR Semantic Web Intelligent Web The Internet Social Web Web OS Connections between Information Web

35 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Change is now underway

36 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Interactive marketing will near $55 billion by 2014

The New Media Created & controlled by the Consumer All about individual interests & expression

replaced by

Marketing in the New Economy New Engage Sense Process Respond New Engage Sense Process Respond Traditional Traditional Make Price Distribute Promote Traditional Traditional Make Price Distribute Promote

Discussion guided- Data Driven - Source: March 12, 2010, “Defining Social Intelligence” Forrester report DRIVES INSPIRES CREATES INFORMS

Social Media is Just One Piece

Social Media is not magic. Joining Facebook (or Twitter, or LinkedIn) will not revolutionize your company or your marketing.

If you are BORING in real life, you are still boring in social media.

If you think social media will fix your business… You’re not smelling the bullsh*t. Get your nose examined.

You still need to: identify your audience. get them to notice you. create value for them. sell something to them. keep them happy. None of this has changed.

There are MANY marketing tools. Use them all together for the best results.

Incorporate a Full Mix of Media Paid Media “The Catalyst” Paid Media “The Catalyst” Owned Media “The Portable Brand” Owned Media “The Portable Brand” Earned Media “The Result” Earned Media “The Result”

Integrated marketing weaves together multiple elements Consumer buying cycle Engagement Exper ienc eRelationship Mass media New Media Social networking “Adver-vising” Twitter Call center Direct & CRM Events Social marketing Off & On-line Promotion

New Business Model Tenets L everage Economies of the Long Tail U tilize OPEN Source & Cloud Services U se Peer production (UGC), Networking & Collaboration L everage Collective Intelligence P ass Labor +Resource S avings to Customer

Permission Consumers choose w/ whom & when to engage Personal Consumers tap self selected networks Precise Communicate/relate w/ consumers in Real time Right time Partip-ulation Consumers participate in own manipulation

The best way to predict the future is to invent it– Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface “computer in a pen”

Concluding Predictions