1 Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis Merritt, B.C. April 5th, 2007
2 Presentation Overview Project Objectives MPB in Merritt Basecase Sensitivity Analyses FFT Opportunity
3 Project Objectives Impact of MPB on harvest levels and other forest values such as wildlife habitat Evaluate how silviculture can reduce the impacts More specifically: When, and by how much, will the beetle affect timber supply Recommend and assess potential ways to improve timber supply and non-timber values Prioritize spending
4 Classification of Land Base TSA Area Retention No Treatment Partial Cut Restoration to Enhance Major Salvage Basic Obligations Silviculture Opportunity Basic Silviculture: Fire/Pest Incremental Silv.: Fert., Thin, Prune
5 Mountain Pine Beetle Severity% Affected Trace0 – 1 Low1 – 10 Moderate11 – 30 Severe Very severe51+
projection - Merritt
projection - Merritt
projection - Merritt
projection - Merritt
10 Merritt MPB Projections by Severity
11 Defining a Base Case Updated netdown; Updated resultant file, which includes an updated inventory; New analysis units and yield tables; Recalculation of the PSI for each resultant polygon; Old growth management area (OGMAs); Disturbing the inoperable; Updated UWR modelling; and MPB projections to 2015.
12 Base Case
13 Conversion to Managed
14 Harvest by Species
15 ECA by CWS
16 -Return on Investment (ROI) -Merchantability Economic Indicators
17 Return On Investment (ROI) Uses TIPSY to generate: Yield Tables Costs and Revenues Standardized FFT IRR Worksheet: Calculates ROI and NPVs
18 Example ROI Output ROI = 3.38%
19 Merchantability A tool for describing the relative economics of timber harvesting opportunities across a forested landbase. Merchantability = Product Value – Operating Costs
20 Merchantability- Product Value Product value approximates the selling price for lumber and chips Product Value is a function of: Site Index Species Stocking Age
21 Merchantability- Operating Costs Costs involved in operating, building roads, harvesting wood, manufacturing products and reforestation Operating cost is a function of: Slope Terrain Volume/ha Cycle time Species BEC zone Stocking Age
22 Merchantability- Index Each stand given a Merchantability Class Summarized by graphs and maps
23 Merchantability- Map product
24 Merchantability- Area Summary
25 Sensitivity Analyses
26 Harvest all MPB Very Severe
27 Plant all unharvested MPB Plant 122,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m 3 /year
28 Plant Unharvested MPB-ROI > 2% Plant 89,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m 3 /year
29 Faster MPB Spread
30 Presently Utilized Uplift Level
31 Retain 150m 3 /ha non-Pl
32 Kill MPB down to 10cm DBH
33 Two year shelf life
34 Two year shelf life-Availability
35 Plant GI spruce instead of pine
36 Retention Sensitivities
37 FFT Opportunity Scenario Increased Planting of Genetically Improved Spruce Plant all unharvested MPB kill with an ROI > 2% CWS Restoration (planting) occurs irrespective of ROI Retention of 100% FN Retention areas
38 FFT Opportunity Scenario
39 FFT Opportunity Age class
40 FFT Opportunity ECA Impact
41 FFT Planting Opportunity
42 Classification of Landbase
43 Classification of Landbase
44 Environmental Reporting Seral Stage Patch Size Fine filter- UWR/Grizzly/Woodpecker Harvest in FN Retention Area CWS- ECA/Road Density/Seral stage
45 Seral Stage
46 Harvest in FN Retention Areas No harvest in FN 100% for 15 years
47 Patch Size
48 CWS ECA
49 CWS Seral Stage