What does the air quality scenario envision? We produced a very broad, ambitious scenario, structured around 4 societal needs: -Real-time event analysis (e.g., smoke, dust plumes) For forecasts, alerts, exceptional event rule analysis, etc. -Assessing long-range transport of air pollution Policymakers need scientific assessments, assessment requires better tools for using satellite, met, ambient data -Assimilating satellite data with models to improve AQ forecasts Satellite data will improve forecasts, particularly in sensor-poor regions; interoperabilty challenge to make sufficiently fast forecasts feasible. -Getting air quality forecasts and nowcasts to the public Allows individuals, families to adjust plans if air quality is/will be poor; allows health community, other decision-makers to plan for episodes

Development of the AIP Air Quality Scenario Developed iteratively by a collaborating multi-organization group Written on the ESIP wiki, using online forum and telecons to plan, discuss, and develop the submitted scenarioESIP wikidiscuss Developed the ESIP air quality Community of Practice, which is co ‑ evolving with the AIP Pilot and other activities Community of Practice Wiki for AQ Scenario

Satellite Agency satellite-model fusion met data PM, NO2 columns transport models Air Quality Analysts conc. fields met data transport models Report: intercontinental pollutant xport Policy Makers Sign international agreement? AQ Managers Was pollution event due to transport from afar? Event analysis AQI Forecasters transport models met data Public AQI today, tomorrow, later Is it healthy to go for a run now? Decision makers, Decisions Earth Obs. Value Chain Representation of the Scenario (simplified) Blue: not currently operationally existent; what we need from GEOSS Green: not currently adequate; what society needs from GEOSS

What does the air quality scenario envision? Data and tools needed for any one of the 4 goals… …are needed for all of them Many data, tools already exist for each goal… …but the systems don’t readily work together We have produced a broad, ambitious scenario which does not call for specific ‘killer apps’ or demonstrations. Instead it calls for a service-oriented, interoperable, accessible, and available system of systems.

Earth Observations Providers Space agencies; met, land management, and environmental/health agencies (national, regional, local); Academics; Private sector Air Quality Modelers, Forecasters, and Analysts Environmental/health management and met agencies (national, regional, local) Modelers and analysts in many settings Information Management Specialists Air Quality Management Decision-Makers Environmental, health agencies; Multi-lateral Cooperative Fora: LRTAP, EANET, Malé Declaration, Arctic Council Other Consumers of Air Quality Informations Public, researchers, mass-media, … Air Quality & Health Scenario: Actors

Many actors are ‘decision-makers’ Policymakers, sensitive individuals, modelers, parents, transit officials, air quality managers, weather forecasters, air quality analysts, environmental compliance officials, …

Air Quality & Health:Starting Information Meteorological data –Observations from ground-based networks, satellites, sondes –Forecasts from numerical models at the global and regional scales Geographical data –Land use –Demographics –Emissions-related activity Atmospheric Composition (Air Quality) Observations –Surface Monitoring Networks –Satellite Observations –Sondes –Ground-based remote sensors –Aircraft Measurements Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models –(at regional to global scales)

Air Quality & Health Scenario: Existing Efforts Real-Time Large-Scale Event Analysis –FASTNET, IDEA, SmogBlog Assessment of International and Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollution –HTAP Data Network, AMET, RSIG, HemiTap Assimilation of Observations for Air Quality Forecasting –GEMS, RAQMS Provision of Relevant Information to the Health Community & the Public –AIRNow, PHASE

Examples – pieces of the puzzle GAW: WMO Global Atmosphere Watch

Examples – pieces of the puzzle GEMS: Global & regional Earth system Monitoring using Satellites (ECMWF)

Examples – pieces of the puzzle Informing the public about Air Quality & Forecasts in real time: AIRNow

Interoperability needed! many systems, many pipes…. we shouldn’t keep reinventing wheels!

Societal needs and the actors Data wonks Modelers Air Quality analysts Local policy maker Distant policy maker Sensitive individual Real time event analysis XXXXXX Assessing inter- continental transport XXXXX Merging satellites, in-situ, model data XXX AQ nowcasts, forecasts to public XXXXX