PREV ’AIR : An operational system for large scale air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe

01/06/ / 2 Two main objectives Diagnostic and prospective studies in the field of atmospheric air pollution at the European scale  Technical support to the French Ministry for Ecology in the framework of international negotiations about transboundary air pollution (implementation of integrated policies aiming at reducing pollutant emissions in Europe) Delivery of a daily information related to air quality over France and Europe  To complement the national air quality monitoring network (~40 AASQA, >2000 sensors, >700 stations)

Architecture of the PREV’AIR System 3D Chemistry Transport Models... CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS MOCAGE / METEO-FRANCE … Driven by meteorological forecasts AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts) ARPEGE, ALADIN Other input data Emissions inventory  EMEP  EDGAR Boundary concentrations  MOZART+GOCART  MOCAGE NRT observations data from local AQ monitoring associations (BASTER / ADEME database...) Chemical forecasts Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts Numerical AQ forecast data Forecast s (maps) BASTER Analysis (maps) Observations (maps), scores Other NRT data A S Q AA

01/06/ / 2 The BASTER Near Real-Time Data Base National web sitePREV ’AIR 41 French AQ related organisms (AASQA) "real time" national database BASTER AASQA web sites Local servers 680 monitoring stations ADEME hour LOCAL NATIONAL O 3 NO 2 SO 2 PM10 PM2.5

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR Domains Over EuropeOver France  Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1°  Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data  AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions  MM5 higher resolution forecasts (36km) Chemical scheme  MELCHIOR reduced (~45 species, ~120 reactions) Aerosol module  Dust, PPM, SOA, nitrates, sulphates,  ammonium, Water Contents 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) Other model configurations:  meteorology: ECMWF, ARPEGE / ALADIN  BC: MOZART, LMDZ-INCA, GOCART  See

The MOCAGE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR Domains Global Model / Over Europe / Over France  Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1°  Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hP Meteorological forecast data  ARPEGE and ALADIN Chemical scheme  RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions) No aerosol module

Available at D+0, h LT Daily peak and averaged concentration maps  D+0, D+1, D+2 Pollutants: O3, NO2, particulate matter Global scale, Europe, France O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+0 PREV’AIR Outputs: Daily Forecasts O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+0 User part: - Output from both models over Europe and France - In summer, statistically adapted O3 fields

PREV’AIR Outputs: Scores Summer 2004, PM10 daily mean concentrations Summer 2004 O3 daily peak concentrations User part: - Maps - Time series

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Numerical Forecast Data PREV’AIR numerical data  Extraction over user-defined domains  Available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts) Applications  3D data: BC for local AQ simulations : ESMERALDA (Ile-de-France area), AIRES (PACA region), …  2D data: for AQ monitoring and forecast (interpolation, statistical modelling) Feed-back from PREV’AIR users  Meetings with AQ networks for system improvement  Day-by-day debriefing about forecasts...Up to now, about 40 users

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Maps of NRT observations Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12nd of September 2004 Maps of measured daily peak and mean concentrations:  O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM0  Observations performed between 0h and t  For D+0 and the previous six days

Modelled concentrations corrected with observations:  Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations  Statistical adaptation: kriging method  Available at D+0 for D+0 and D-1 PREV ’AIR Outputs: Analyses July 31, 2004 O3 simulation (µg/m 3 )O3 corrective field (µg/m 3 ) 03 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m 3 )

01/06/ / 2 PREV’AIR Analyses: Scores Summer 2003, O3 daily peak concentrations 13 rural stations 67 suburban stations 179 urban stations

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Annual Budgets Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m 3 ) during summer 2003 Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 180 µg/m 3 threshold during summer 2003 Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 240 µg/m 3 threshold during summer 2003

Future developments Coming soon:  Set up of summer 2005 forecast season  Implementation of the last CHIMERE version (V200501G) with LMDZ-INCA BC Better a ccounting for observations:  Analyzed concentrations to initialize the forecast  Feasability study for PM10 concentrations analysis  Feasability study for data assimilation of 3D data (LIDAR, satellites) Ensemble forecast:  Multi model forecast (hybridization methods)