BlueSky-EM, SMOKE and Data Linkages Andy Holland Carolina Environmental Program Symposium on Climate, Forest Growth, Fire and Air Quality Interactions September 7, 2006

Schematic of Integrated Fire Emissions Generation System

Base Case Fire Data Inter-RPO 2002 National Wildfire Emissions Inventory Inter-RPO 2002 National Wildfire Emissions Inventory –Site Record –Emissions Unit –Emissions Process –Emissions Release Point –Emissions Period –Emissions –Transmittal Record FIPS, Fire ID and Fire Name FIPS, Fire ID, Lat./Long. FIPS, Fire ID, Date, Acres per hour

Base Case Fire Data Convert NIF-formatted wildfire inventory to BlueSky-EM input format Convert NIF-formatted wildfire inventory to BlueSky-EM input format ID,LAT,LON,AREA,DATE ID,LAT,LON,AREA,DATE Fencer Fir,44.45,-89.01,0.1994, Fencer Fir,44.45,-89.01,0.1994, County Lin,44.84,-88.49,0.1704, County Lin,44.84,-88.49,0.1704, Dally Hold,44.11,-89.15,0.1004, Dally Hold,44.11,-89.15,0.1004, But I Had,44.30,-88.93,0.1704, But I Had,44.30,-88.93,0.1704, Pine Road,44.85,-89.56,0.0700, Pine Road,44.85,-89.56,0.0700, WI61085,44.50,-89.53,0.0106, WI61085,44.50,-89.53,0.0106,

BlueSky/SMOKE Flow Chart Retrieve Fire Activity Data Read fire activity data, including location, start time, size, and duration Retrieve Fuel Type Data from NFDRS Read the fuel model corresponding to each active fire location using the NFDRS model (National Fire Danger Rating System). Calculate Fuel Consumption with CONSUME Predict the mass of 1 hr, 10 hr, 100 hr, 1000 hr, and 10,000 hr lag time fuels with the Consume consumption model, and the fraction of fuel combusted in the flaming phase and the smoldering phase for each active fire Calculate Emission Rates and Heat Released with EPM Predict the emission rates of CO, CO 2, CH 4, PM10, and PM2.5 for each active fire, and the corresponding heat release rate, using EPM (Emissions Processing Model) Reformat Fire Inventory for SMOKE Model Run Bluesky2inv to reformat the output from CONSUME/EPM into a SMOKE formatted Inventory. Create 3D emissions files for Air Quality Model Run the SMOKE emissions model to generate emissions files to be merged with anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Retrieve Meteorological Data from MM5 Read meteorological data from the MM5 (Mesoscale Model V.5) regional weather model, including temperature, humidity, wind components, and cloud cover.

Base Case Test Run May 2002 May 2002 All RPOs All RPOs Daily SMOKE output files for fires only Daily SMOKE output files for fires only Fires will be merged with anthropogenic and biogenic files to create air quality model-ready emissions files Fires will be merged with anthropogenic and biogenic files to create air quality model-ready emissions files

Future Cases A fire scenario builder will generate future year fires A fire scenario builder will generate future year fires PnET outputs will be used to modify the fuel loading in BlueSky-EM PnET outputs will be used to modify the fuel loading in BlueSky-EM PnET outputs will be used to modify the BELD3 landuse in BEIS-3 PnET outputs will be used to modify the BELD3 landuse in BEIS-3

Remaining Issues Base case fire activity is wildfire only. Prescribed burns are not included. Base case fire activity is wildfire only. Prescribed burns are not included. How do we modify the fuel loading based on the PnET outputs? How do we modify the fuel loading based on the PnET outputs? How do we modify the BELD3 landuse based on the PnET outputs? How do we modify the BELD3 landuse based on the PnET outputs?