13 FINAL THOUGHTS HUGLEIÐINGAR AÐ LOKUM. Copyright © 2004 South-Western 36 Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy Fimm rökræðutilvik varðandi stefnu í.

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13 FINAL THOUGHTS HUGLEIÐINGAR AÐ LOKUM

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 36 Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy Fimm rökræðutilvik varðandi stefnu í þjóðhagfræði

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? Eiga stefnumótandi aðilar að reyna að ná fram stöðugleika í hagkerfinu?

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR MEÐ ÞESSU There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle. Það er ástæðulaust fyrir þjóðfélag að þjást vegna sveiflna í hagkerfinu. Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment. Peninga- og ríkisútgjaldastefna geta skapað stöðugleika í heildareftirspurn og, þessvegna, framleiðslu og atvinnu.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR Á MÓTI Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work. Áhrif af breyttri peningastefnu koma ekki fram fyrr en eftir langan tíma og ófyrirsjáanlegt er hve langan tíma það tekur fyrir stefnubreytingu að koma fram. Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes. Breytt stefna í ríkisfjármálum tekur tíma að skila sér, því langan tíma tekur að breyta útgjaldsstefnu ríkisins og sköttum. All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations. Allt of oft geta inngrip stefnumótandi aðila magnað efnahagssveiflur, frekar en að draga úr þeim.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? Á að setja á fastar reglur um peningamálastefnu, eða ekki?

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR MEÐ ÞESSU Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power. Peningamálastefna sem ekki fylgir föstum reglum tekur ekki alltaf á vandamálum eins og væri við við hæfi og getur leitt til misbeitingar á valdi. There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually do—called time inconsistency of policy. Það getur verið misræmi í því hvað stefnumótandi aðilar segja og hvað þeir gera í raun – sem vísað er til sem tímalegs óstöðugleika í stefnu.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR Á MÓTI An important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexibility. Mikilvægur kostur peningamálastefnu sem ekki fylgir föstum reglum, er sveigjanleiki. The alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical. Framlögð vandamál um að fylgja ekki fastri stefnu og tal um misbeitingu valds eru að stórum hluta ímyndun. Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear Einnig er mikilvægi stórnmálalegrar hagsveiflu langt frá því að vera skýrt.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation? Á Seðlabankinn að setja sér það mark að koma í veg fyrir verðbólgu? (stefna að núll verðbólgu?)

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR MEÐ ÞESSU Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary costs and permanent benefits. Sú stefna að draga úr verðbólgu er stefna með tímabudnum kostnaði og langvarandi ávinningi.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflation ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR Á MÓTI Zero inflation is probably unattainable, and to get there involves output, unemployment, and social costs that are too high. Líklega er núll verðbólga nokkuð sem ekki er hægt að ná, og að ætla að ná því fram kostar það að mikill þjóðfélaglegur kostnaður hlýst af breytigum í framleiðslumagni og atvinnuleysi.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 4.Should fiscal policymakers reduce the government debt? Eiga aðilar sem móta stefnu um fjármál ríksins að vinna að minni skuldum hins opinbera?

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Pro: The government should balance its budget ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR MEÐ ÞESSU Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes. Fjárlagahalli leggur byrði á framtíðarkynslóðir því þær þurfa að taka á sig hærri skattbyrði og lægri tekjur. Deficits reduce national saving, leading to a smaller stock of capital, which reduces productivity and growth. Halli lækkar þjóðhagssparnað, sem leiðir til minni fjármunamyndunar, og lækkar framleiðni og hagvöxt.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Con: The government should not balance its budget ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR Á MÓTI The problem with the deficit is often exaggerated. Vandamálið sem fylgir fjárlagahalla er oft ýkt (of mikið gert úr því). The transfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future. Tilfærsla skuldabyrðar til komandi kynslóða í framtíðinni getur er réttlætanlegt því sum útgjöld ríksins leiða til ábata langt inn í framtíðina (dæmi: vegir, sími og önnur grunngerð þjóðfélags). The government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nation’s ability to pay the interest on the debt. Það er í lagi þó skuldir hins opinbera haldi áfram að aukast, því vaxandi mannfjöldi og tækniframfarir auka getur þóðar til að greiða vexti skuldum hins opinbera.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving? Á að breyta skattareglum til að hvetja til sparnaðar?

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR MEÐ ÞESSU A nation’s saving rate is a key determinant of its long- run economic prosperity. Þjóðhagslegur sparnaður er lykilatriði til að ná fram langtíma hagsæld. The consequences of high capital income tax policies are reduced saving, reduced capital accumulation, lower labor productivity, and reduced economic growth. Afleiðing hátekjuskatts á einstaklinga er minni sparnaður, minni fjármunamyndun, minni vinnuaflsframleiðni, og minni hagvöxtur. consumption taxAn alternative to current tax policies advocated by many economists is a consumption tax. Valmöguleiki við núverandi skattstefnu sem settur er fram af mörgum hagfræðingum er neysluskattur.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving ÞAÐ SEM MÆLIR Á MÓTI Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy. Margar breytingar á reglum varðandi skatta sem settar eru fram til að hvetja til sparnaðar myndu fyrst og fremst gagnast þeim efnameiri. This would also force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor. Þetta myndi líka neyða hið opinbera til að hækka skattbyrði á hina efnaminni.