Drought Management – Integration of Geo Spatial & Contemporary Technologies C. S. Murthy Principal Investigator (Drought) C. S. Murthy Principal Investigator (Drought) Murthy_cs@nrsa.gov.in murthyc@yahoo.com Disaster Management Support Program National Remote Sensing Agency (Dept. of Space, Govt. of India) RS & GIS Applications Area National Remote Sensing Agency (Dept. of Space, Govt. of India)

Organizations associated with drought assessment/monitoring Activity India Meteorological Department, NCMRWF Meteorological information such as rainfall, temperature and derived products on aridity anomaly at subdivision level. Mainly for meteorological drought. Agro-advisory services based on weather data Central Water Commission Water levels in surface water bodies - hydrological drought State Departments of Agriculture Monitoring crop sown area progression and drought prevalence through manual observations on agricultural situation and the data on rainfall and surface water bodies. Contingency crop plans. State Disaster Management Authorities Analyzing data from different departments and drought declaration State Agricultural Universities Agro-advisory services Contingency crop plans ICAR Agro meteorological data bases Agro advisory services Drought proofing measures NRSA (Dept. of Space, Govt. of India) In season agricultural drought assessment and monitoring with satellite images and geospatial information technologies.

SATELLITE MONITORING OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT Biophysical Parameters Vegetation Index Satellite Sensors Agricultural Drought Biophysical Parameters Rain Meteorological Drought Evapo transpiration Infiltration & Percolation Hydrological Drought Runoff Runoff Surface Storage Ground water Storage

Earth Observation Systems and Geo-spatial Information Technology for drought assessment and management Geo-stationery & Communication Satellites Earth Resources Satellites 1. Monitoring of Crop area, crop condition & yield Range lands 2. Soil moisture estimation 3. Land surface temperature Meteorological information Monitoring vegetation Monitoring range lands Village Resource Centres (VRCs) Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) Geo-spatial tools- Geographic Information System (GIS) – Data ware house, knowledge discovery, data mining, Spatial modellers etc PNT systems (Position, Navigation and Tracking System) Data integration from diff. sources/ decision support Data communication and net working Drought assessment Vulnerability mapping Drought mitigation Drought management

Methodology for drought assessment, kharif season (AVHRR/WiFS/AWiFS) Harmonization of NDVI and ground data Change in crop calendar Lag between NDVI & rainfall Abnormal weather events Such as floods Normal Watch Alert Drought warning (June, July, August) Drought declaration (Sep, Oct) Mild Moderate Severe NDVI anomaly Assessment Relative dev. VCI In season transformation Extent of NDVI anomaly Extent of rainfall deviation Extent of sown area Agricultural drought situation

NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING SYSTEM Satellite data analysis Drought assessment Coverage Information reporting Integration with ground data

AVHRR NDVI – August 2007 June 07 July 07 August 07

Agricultural Drought Assessment – Aug 2007 NDVI Uttar Pradesh state

Andhra Pradesh state August 2007 Agricultural drought assessment AWiFS NDVI Andhra Pradesh state August 2007 Agricultural drought assessment at dis-aggregated level June 2007 July 2007 93 mandals in 7 districts were found to be under mild agricultural drought situation August 2007

Agricultural Drought Assessment (upto August 2007) Agricultural drought situation in 55 districts in the country 22 districts in U.P 11 districts in M.P 8 districts in Rajasthan 6 districts in Maharashtra 7 districts in AP 1 district in Bihar

Crop condition anomalies at different levels Normal year (2005) State District Block Drought year (2002)

Impact of 2002 drought at block level Anantpur district

Drought vulnerability mapping – space & ground inputs Hanumantharao committee 1994 % area irrigated at district and block level in different agro climatic zones was the main criteria 1173 blocks in 185 districts of 13 states – 120 M ha as drought prone Parthasarathy Committee 2005 – re-look in to criteria for drought proneness CRIDA ‘s criteria – Rainfall and irrigation support NRSA – Historic NDVI from high resolution data Integration of these two methods for composite drought prone index Anantpur district Mahaboobnagar district Participating Organizations CRIDA NRSA NIRD Data used NDVI Rainfall Irrigation support More vulnerable Less vulnerable

Information requirements for in-season drought management 1 Beginning of the season (a) Extent of delay in sowings (no. of days/weeks) (b) Extent of reduction in sown area (c) Expected sown area 2 Middle/end of the season (a) Impact of drought on standing crops. (b) Expected reduction in crop yield Information requirements for in-season drought management 3 Scale of information At different spatial units (mandals/taluks) within district Weekly/fortnightly information 4 Quantitative assessment of drought impact Area affected by drought - list of drought affected mandals/taluks along with severity level. (b) Extent of reduction in crop yield. 5 Early warning on drought occurrence/severity

Drought management Goals Land management Crop management In-season management (near real-time) Assessment indicators Monitoring mechanism End-of-the season management Drought declaration rationale Relief management Short term Contingency crop plan Drought resistant cultivars Cultivation practices for soil and water conservation Mid season corrections Nutrient management Goals Land management Crop management Fodder management Agricultural Water management Drinking Water Socio-economic equity Long term Watershed management Ground water recharge Water use efficiency Employment generation Public awareness

Criteria for drought declaration by different states Declaration of drought by state level Declaration in Sept/Oct Memorandum of scarcity Verification by Central Govt. Criteria in different states State Criteria for drought declaration Andhra Pradesh 1. Mandal level rainfall 2. Mandal level crop sown area 3. Yield reduction 4. Dry spells Karnataka Rainfall Dry weeks Maharashtra Paisewari system, yield loss 100 point scale Orissa Block level rainfall, Crop assessment Rajasthan, UP and J & K Yield loss criteria

Standard criteria for operational drought assessment & declaration Scientific approach Criteria should cut across various rainfall zones, agro-ecological zones Complete and comprehensive – rainfall, soil and plant Weather data IMD weather stations Revenue rain guages Automatic Weather stations Geo-stationery satellites Soil moisture Soil water balance Automatic Weather stations Microwave satellites Thermal data from satellites Drought severity Classification at Sub district level Drought declaration Relief Assessment Relief Management Crop condition & crop estimation Geospatial near realtime from different satellites Bio-physical parameters from satellites Agro meterological yield models Improved manual crop estimation surveys Crop sown areas Manual collection Satellite observations

National Drought Management System A model KNOWLEDGE CENTER (KC) Integrated Geospatial Data base on drought related parameters (Spatial and non spatial) Geo-informatics tools for data analysis Knowledge Data mining Data Fusion Spatial Decision Support Systems . . . Institutional participation Near real-time flow of data/information Agriculture Meteorology Hydrology Socio-economic Academic Scientific Flow of expertise Drought Assessment at diff. spatial & temporal scales Delivery & Feedback mechanism Federal Government State District Administration Farmers

Institutional Linkages with KNOWLEDGE CENTRE (KC) Main issues Identification of institutions Defining roles/responsibilities Ensuring near realtime flow of data and knowledge Ensuring end use and feed back analysis Ministry of Agriculture, GOI IMD ICAR Remote Sensing KNOWLEDGE CENTRE (KC) State Depts. of Agril. State Agril. Universities State Depts. of Planning State Depts. of Relief Other Academic/Scientific

Standardization of data collection and Transmission system Weather data -- IMD stations Revenue stations Increasing the density - Automatic Weather Stations 2. Agriculture – Soil information (Soil maps) Deep Soils Shallow soils Geo morphology – uplands, low lands Cropping pattern, Irrigation support Crop sown area progression 3. Geospatial data bases Land Use / Land cover Crop condition Bio physical parametrs etc 4. Consistency in the data collection procedures, timeliness etc Data transmission to centralised servers Surface mail, e mail Satellite transmission

Harmonization of data & Unified index – A Classic example Multi disciplinary Involvement of multiple organizations (about 150 scientists are involved) Comprehensive drought assessment It is not a forecasting/early warning system Drought monitor is at climatic division averaged. Not good for local level decision making

Criteria in US Drought monitor Category Palmer drought index CPC soil moisture model Stream flows SPI Satellite Vegetation health index Normal -1 to -1.9 21-30 -.5 to -.7 36-45 Moderate drought -2 to -2.9 11-20 -.8 to -1.2 26-35 Severe drought -3 to -3.9 6-10 -1.3 to -1.5 16-25 Extreme drought -4 to -4.9 3-5 -1.6 to -1.9 6-15 Exceptional drought -5 or less 0-2 -2 or less 1-5

Automatic Weather Stations Special sensors for measuring soil moisture Data transmission through communication satellites – Kalpana - 1, INSAT 3A consistency in data recording, enhanced frequency of coverage, Coverage of inaccessible areas, all weather and all time operations Affordable alternatives to get detailed weather information. AWS measures – meteorological parameters like rainfall, humidity, temperature AWS are being established in selected locations in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Thank you all