Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University Sweden

International Workshop On Oil Depletion IWOOD2002 Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, The ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas: Statement by Matthew Simmons, energy adviser for President Bush: “We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.” (TV4, Sweden)

Growth Splitting ”Eden””Gated Eden” ”The fall of the Empire” ”Global Darwinism”

Needed for a good party Good music Plenty of food Champagne, Champagne and Champagne

Needed for a good energy party Easy to move energy Abundance without limits Methods to transform bound energy into something useful The name of the game has been oil!

How much energy is bound in oil? 1 litre of oil contain 10 kWh What can you do with 10 kWh? You can move 10 small cars to the top of the Eiffel tower!

The oil in the North Sea is limited

Perfect object for oil

Use of energy in Sweden during 100 years TWh

World’s remaining oil reserves

Reality from the speech of the silent elephants

Reported Giant Elephants from 1870 till 2000 About 70% of all oil we have discovered can be found in 371 giant oilfields, the giant elephants. NumberPer5yearNumberPer5year

Cumulative Discovery according to BP statistical review.

Discovery per year from 1950 till 2000 ( BP statistical review )

OPEC:s numbers according to Oil & Gas journal. Production in the OPEC countries in the table is 6 Gb/year

Production of oil in Kuwait Greater Burgan

Reported reserves in Kuwait

Middle East Difference between the Uppsala model and BP Saudi Arabia 194,4 (261.8) Gb Iraq 95.0 (112,5) Gb Iran 70,5 (89,7) Gb Kuwait 55,4 (96,5) Gb N. Zone 8,45 Abu Dubai 59,4 (97,8) Gb Oman 6,74 (5,5) Gb Qatar 5,73 (5,5) Gb Yemen 1,36 (4,0) Gb Syria 2,01 (2,8) Gb Sum 499 (676.1) Gb It looks as 177 Gb oil is missing

Production and reserves Oil & Gas J

Back dating An oilfield contains what it contains because it was filled in the geological past An oilfield is found by the first successful borehole drilled into it. –All the oil, ever to be produced from it under any circumstance, is logically attributable to the original discovery Date is as important as Amount

Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves

Predicting the future production wells

Realety and Illusion Inflexion due to falling discovery OPEC “quota war” Realety Illusion x Prediction

Discovery per year from 1950 till 2000

World’s remaining oil reserves

Colin Campbell "Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what’s in it."

Published Estimates of Ultimate recovery Average of 65 estimates is 1.93 Tb

USA oil and USGS 2000 USGS numbers for USA year 2025: F95 = 345 Gb Mean = 362 Gb F5 = 383 Gb Dvs mean +/- 5%

World R/P for oil and gas R/P is claiming that current reserves of 1000 Gb could support current production at 27 Gb/a for 37 years. R/P is a poor indicator and should be ignored.

World - conventional oil Ultimate : 1900 Gb To-date 2002: 927 Gb Peak Discovery 1964 Peak Discovery High Prices Curb Demand

ASPO at Uppsala: The world oil depletion curve

H.J. Longwell, Exxon Mobil World Energy Vol 5, Nr3, 2002 In closing, let me say that I believe industry has the resources to meet future global energy demand for some considerable time. I base this in part on my belief that technological advances will continue in exploration, development and production, just as they have in the past. This is the one major component in our success equation that we can control, and we must be relentless in its pursuit. Such advances will be critical to meeting energy demand after I think it is well within the realm of possibility that many of our future discoveries will come not just from new frontier areas, but also from proven areas, as evolving technology improves our ability to virtually "see" and distinguish the oil and gas before we drill.

Norway: crude oil production of all fields including 2001 (52 Felder) History Forecast 17 Gb 6 Gb + 3 Gb ? Sm3 Monthly data 1/ /02 Source: NPD

Professor Kenneth S Deffeyes Princton University, USA Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage I have some advice for my granddaughter Emma, age two: “Learn something about thermodynamics. By the time you reach retirement age the world production of oil, the kind that’s fun to drill for, will be down to a fifth of its present size. Get into renewable energy.”

If 100 gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have spent 9 bottles.

No party without Champagne

Nine in the refrigerator and two to find

The nine in the refrigerator

There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the content into four glasses each glass represent the global consumption per year.

From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They have just started to sip on the last glass.

If we have 11 bottles to empty and it takes 4 years to empty one everyone should be aware of the the party is over and that we need to do something!!!!

Aristoteles, 340 f.kr. “The Earth is round!” ASPO 2003, “We will have a peak and decline and we have to fight against the “flat earth” people”.