Is Our Future Sustainable? William C. Clark Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Opening Plenary Address at the International Conference on Science and Technology for Sustainability 2003: Energy and Sustainability Science Science Council of Japan Tokyo, December 2003

The talk in overview I. The Problem: –Unsustainable development II. The Opportunity: –Promoting a transition toward sustainability III. What’s to be Done? –Harnessing science and technology for a sustainability transition

I. The Problem: Unsustainable Development The idea of “sustainability” is only the most recent conceptual focus linking collective aspirations of world’s peoples for… –Peace and freedom (Palme Commission) –Improved well-being (Brandt Commission) –Healthy environment (Brundtland Commission) –Human rights (Sen / Ogata Commission) As with these other aspirations, the question about sustainability is not whether it’s possible, but rather what we can do to make progress toward it.

Evolution of ‘sustainable development’ Early conservation movements –conserving the South for the North Stockholm Conference (UNCHE 1972) –environment must be sustained for all World Conservation Strategy (1980) –environment and development linked Brundtland and Rio (UNCED 1992) –“sustainability” onto the world agenda… Johannesburg (WSSD 2002) –toward implementation?

Sustainable development today Agreement: Reconciling society’s development goals with environmental constraints over the long term… –“to ensure that [humanity] meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” [Brundtland] –“to meet human needs, while preserving the earth’s life support systems and reducing hunger and poverty” [World Academies of Science, Tokyo] Debate: What is to be developed? What is to be sustained? Over what period? How to do it? The challenge in perspective…

Substantial improvements in well- being achieved in last half century: Life expectancy at birth up: 50  64 y Infant mortality down: 13%  6% Access to safe drinking water: <35%  65% Literacy rate up: <50%  70% GDP/cap (developing only): $900  $2900 > 3 billion people improve living standards.

But success remains uneven, incomplete, reversible: Persistent hunger of >800 million Resurgence of disease epidemics (eg. HIV) Growing urban homelessness > 600 million Growing disparities between rich, poor –doubled ratio of incomes richest: poorest fifth Growing number of poor  1.3 billion Losing ground in Africa, elsewhere.

And development has dramatically altered basic biosphere processes... Outgoing longwave radiation down >1% Fixation of nitrogen up > 2x Invasion by exotic organisms up > 3x Sediment loads in rivers up > 5x Release of lead up > 20x Extinction of species up > x

Transforming the face of the earth… Increasing atmospheric CO 2 by ~ 30 % Intercepting > 40% of terrestrial production Using > 50% freshwater runoff Fully/overexploiting > 60% marine fisheries Increasing atmospheric CH 4 by >140 % Introducing >70,000 synthetic chemicals

In an accelerating pattern… Rates since 1950  50% all change reached by % all change reached since 1900 Rates decelerating Animal diversityPb, S releases Sea mammal diversity Human population Rates accelerating Forest areaC,N,P releases Floral diversity Sediment flows Water withdrawals

With implications for a future of human development in which: Environmental stresses are multiple, interactive Responses are abrupt, not gradual Scales are multiple, but especially regional Managing “syndromes” of regional degradation becomes a central challenge: –Overdevelopment syndromes (Aral Sea, Grand Banks) –Urbanization syndromes (Mexico City, Bangkok) –Sink syndromes (Black Triangle, Hanford Reservation).

Looking to the future, darkly… Current trends including population, habitation, wealth, consumption, connectedness are likely to persist well into 21 st century, and could significantly undermine prospects for sustainability. Individual environmental problems unlikely to prevent substantial progress over next two generations. More troubling are threats arising from multiple, cumulative, interactive stresses, driven by a variety of human activities.

… and more brightly A successful transition toward sustainability is nonetheless possible without miraculous technology or drastic social transformation. Needed are significant advances in basic knowledge, increases in the capacity to utilize that knowledge, and the political will to transform knowledge into action.

II. The Opportunity: Promoting a Transition toward sustainability The complexity of human-environment interactions, and the changing character of social goals, mean that no path to sustainability can be plotted in advance; The need is therefore for social capacity to guide development away from its present unsustainable trajectories toward more sustainable ones…

“Transitions toward Sustainability” What’s new? The idea of a “transition toward sustainability” had already been posed at the Tokyo 2000 Symposium by the World Academies of Science on “Transition toward Sustainability in the 21 st Century…” What’s new since then?

Sustainability has emerged on the “high table” of the global agenda… “Freedom from want, freedom from fear, and the freedom of future generations to sustain their lives on this planet” are the 3 grand global challenges for the 21 st Century – UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, in his Millennium Report to the General Assembly

Governance has become a thoroughly multistakeholder activity Private sector GovernmentCivil Society GlobalMulti- nationals Intergovtl. organization Internatl. NGOs NationalNational business THE STATENational NGOs LocalLocal business Local government Local action

It has become accepted that knowledge matters for development Development "is built not merely through the accumulation of physical capital and human skill, but on a foundation of information, learning and adaptation…” –World Bank, World Development Report: Knowledge for development.

Knowledge matters… (cont.) “The 20th century’s unprecedented gains in advancing human development and eradicating poverty came largely from technological breakthroughs (eg. antibiotics, vaccines, high-yield crops)… Technology is a tool, not just a reward, for growth and development…” –UNDP. 2001: Human development report: Making new technologies work for human development.

We are learning that usable knowledge is more than good S&T… Produced through joint action of producers and users (not sent through the mail…) Knowledge may be universal, but usable knowledge is place / context specific (retail) Need to bridge gap between most knowledge producers, who remain focused on identifying problems, and most knowledge users who want a focus on solutions for sustainability.

III. What’s to be Done? Harnessing science, technology for a sustainability transition ISTS/TWAS/ICSU dialogues reveal need to better harness S&T for sustainability through: –Solution-focused campaigns to meet targets of the highest priority goals for sustainable development by applying what is known… –Programs of fundamental R&D on the underlying questions of sustainability science –Capacity building through nurturing knowledge systems for sustainable development

Solution-focused campaigns… “Highest priority goals” of sustainability defined, denominated in targets at global scale by international conferences, UN Millennium Project: For human needs, a hierarchy … –Children, people in disasters –Feeding and nurturing –Education, housing, employment [?] For life support systems… –Goals are fewer, more modest, more contested –Preoccupied with human health, not ecosystems

Candidate Global Action Campaigns to better apply what is known… Accelerate trends in fertility reduction (-1B) Reverse declining trends in agricultural production in Africa, sustain elsewhere Restore degraded ecosystems, while conserving biodiversity elsewhere. Accommodate 2-3x increase of today’s urban population in sustainable manner…; Accelerate improvements in use of energy and materials (double historical rates?);

Candidate Global R&D Priorities on underlying questions… Drivers of nature/society interactions –large/long trends and transitions –production/consumption systems Impacts of nature/society interactions –determinants of vulnerability and resilience –responses to multiple stresses (social, natural) –thresholds, critical loads and limits Measures of nature / human well-being

Global Issues Local Issues old rich millions affluence “global people” resource surpluses causes of climate change technological knowledge theory driven research poor, young billions poverty “local people” resource shortages impacts of climate change traditional knowledge action driven research Digital and capacity divides But this global consensus masks profound regional differences…

Need Knowledge Systems for Sustainable Development… that Link long term R&D to social goals as articulated by users at all scales, especially regional… Integrate local/ regional/ global nodes into effective research/ decision support systems Join academia, private sector, and government in dynamic knowledge-action collaboratives.

Present systems of priority- setting, funding and publication encourage (good) research … anchored in single (or neighboring) disciplines either problem-driven or fundamental; focused at single scales; not directly connected to assessment; operations, or decision-support; And therefore necessary but insufficient to advance goals of a sustainability transition.

Needed is additional capacity to: Target S&T on “most pressing problems” as prioritized by local stakeholders in development… –avoiding pitfall of scientists guessing user needs Integrate appropriate mixes of disciplines, expertise and public/private sector in support of such problem-driven R&D… –avoiding pitfalls of disciplinary “hammers,” and of undervaluing informal, practical expertise

Needed is additional capacity to... Link expertise and application across scales, from local to global –avoiding bias for universal over place-specific knowledge Integrate research planning, observations, assessment & operational decision support –avoiding pitfall of “island empires”.

Examples of research systems that have been (relatively) effective in meeting such goals Development: Int. agricultural research syst. Envir: ENSO research/applications progs Health: WHO malaria campaigns Commons: Stratospheric ozone protection

Components of effective knowledge systems for sustainability 1.Sustained strength in the core disciplines 2.Focused research programs on fundamental questions of sustainability science -eg. vulnerability of nature/society systems 3.Focused problem-solving programs where we know enough to begin -eg. sustainable cities, carbon management 4.Enhanced regional capacity for integration

Challenge for the 21 st Century: Regional Centers to i ntegrate knowledge and action for a transition toward sustainability Providing useful integration of sectoral expertise, disciplinary science, technical know-how, and informal knowledge in response to priorities of development stakeholders is a complex process… …often left to local decision makers and managers who “make do”… but with limited skill. Needed are Regional Centers to help with such integration, by building experienced teams in trusted institutions, networked to global system.

Joint the continuing dialogue… Forum on Science and Technology for Sustainability –