16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 1 Numerical Modeling of Mountain Pine Beetle Transport by the Wind.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Advertisements

SNPP VIIRS green vegetation fraction products and application in numerical weather prediction Zhangyan Jiang 1,2, Weizhong Zheng 3,4, Junchang Ju 1,2,
The Structural Evolution of African Easterly Waves Matthew A. Janiga and Chris Thorncroft DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES University.
Analysis of 12 years of IMPROVE data in the Columbia River Gorge By Dan Jaffe University of Washington Northwest Air Quality Photo from the Wishram IMPROVE.
A numerical simulation of urban and regional meteorology and assessment of its impact on pollution transport A. Starchenko Tomsk State University.
Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative Research Program Update Session April 8, Modelling of MPB Transport and Dispersion using Atmospheric Models Peter.
Cold Fronts and their relationship to density currents: A case study and idealised modelling experiments Victoria Sinclair University of HelsinkI David.
Analysis of Rare Northeast Flow Events By Joshua Beilman and Stephanie Acito.
The Use of High Resolution Mesoscale Model Fields with the CALPUFF Dispersion Modelling System in Prince George BC Bryan McEwen Master’s project
Will Pendergrass NOAA/ARL/ATDD OAR Senior Research Council Meeting Oak Ridge, TN August 18-19, 2010 Boundary–Layer Dispersion Urban Meteorology 5/20/2015Air.
12 th AMS Mountain Meteorology Conference August 31, Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion of the Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia Peter.
FERIC/FORREX: Mountain Pine Beetle Research Update An Operational Perspective January 25, Modelling medium and long- range movement of MPB using.
Interannual Variability in Summer Hydroclimate over North America in CAM2.0 and NSIPP AMIP Simulations By Alfredo Ruiz–Barradas 1, and Sumant Nigam University.
5.0 RESULTS PART II: Synoptic Evolution & Timing of Peak Emergence 6.0 COMPOSITE VALIDATION: Comparison to Actual Emergence Events 7.0 CONCLUSION: Expected.
w4fg&feature=related.
Strong Polar Anticyclone Activity over the Northern Hemisphere and an Examination of the Alaskan Anticyclone Justin E. Jones, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel.
The Effect of the Terrain on Monsoon Convection in the Himalayan Region Socorro Medina 1, Robert Houze 1, Anil Kumar 2,3 and Dev Niyogi 3 Conference on.
Weather Forecasting – The Traditional Approach Pine cones open and close according to air humidity. An open pine cone means dry weather. Ash leaf before.
1.0 INTRODUCTION: Wind, Insects & Complex Terrain The mountain pine beetle population in British Columbia has been increasing over the past decade and.
1 Modelled Meteorology - Applicability to Well-test Flaring Assessments Environment and Energy Division Alex Schutte Science & Community Environmental.
4.1 Map Composites and Climate Anomalies hPa Classification of Map Sub-types: 4.0 RESULTS PART I: Synoptic Composites for Peak Emergence & Map-Pattern.
Effects of topography upon mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) transport and dispersion as indicated by mesoscale meteorological models. Brenda.
Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains William R. Cotton, Ray McAnelly, and Gustavo.
The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE): Overview and Preliminary Results Neil M. Taylor 1, D. Sills 2,
Assessing changes in mean climate, extreme events and their impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean environment and society C. Giannakopoulos 1, M. Petrakis.
Mapping of mountain pine beetle red-attack forest damage: discrepancies by data sources at the forest stand scale Huapeng Chen and Adrian Walton.
Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.
AOSS 401, Fall 2006 Lecture 19 October 26, 2007 Richard B. Rood (Room 2525, SRB) Derek Posselt (Room 2517D, SRB)
Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 18 January 2007 Paper 5A.4: Slide 1 American Meteorological Society 21 st Conference.
1. Objectives Impacts of Land Use Changes on California’s Climate Hideki Kanamaru Masao Kanamitsu Experimental Climate Prediction.
In this study, HWRF model simulations for two events were evaluated by analyzing the mean sea level pressure, precipitation, wind fields and hydrometeors.
Gradient Modeling Spatial layers of environmental gradients (predictor variables) known to govern rust propagation were compared to percent rust infection.
IUFRO 2005 July 12, 2005 Paper 15 - Peter L. Jackson 1 Atmospheric Modelling of Mountain Pine Beetle Transport Peter L. Jackson Brendan Murphy Brenda Moore.
Accounting for Uncertainties in NWPs using the Ensemble Approach for Inputs to ATD Models Dave Stauffer The Pennsylvania State University Office of the.
Identification of side-door/back-door cold fronts for fire weather forecasting applications Joseph J. Charney USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station,
The climate and climate variability of the wind power resource in the Great Lakes region of the United States Sharon Zhong 1 *, Xiuping Li 1, Xindi Bian.
METR March Review Hydrostatic balance Ideal gas law p = ρ R d T v, ρ = p / R d T v Take layer average virtual temperature, R and g as constants.
Ice Cover in New York City Drinking Water Reservoirs: Modeling Simulations and Observations NIHAR R. SAMAL, Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University.
ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology
Megafires and Smoke Exposure Under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States STI-6361 Kenneth Craig 1, Sean Raffuse 2, Sim Larkin 2, ShihMing.
Development Mechanism of Heavy Rainfall over Gangneung Associated with Typhoon RUSA Tae-Young Lee, Nam-San Cho, Ji-Sun Kang Kun-Young Byun, Sang Hun Park.
Introduction to Modeling – Part II
Model Evaluation and Assessment ALBERT EINSTEINALBERT EINSTEIN: Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler. Theodore A. Haigh Confederated.
Advanced interpretation and verification of very high resolution models National Meteorological Administration Rodica Dumitrache, Aurelia LUPASCU,
COST 723 WORKSHOP – SOFIA, BULGARIA MAY 2006 USE OF RADIOSONDE DATA FOR VALIDATION OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING SIMULATIONS OVER CYPRUS Panos Hadjinicolaou.
Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 May 2011 For Real-time information:
The Dryline The dryline can be defined as the near surface convergence zone between moist air flowing off the Gulf of Mexico and dry air flowing off of.
Introduction Conclusion and Future Work An Antarctic Cloud Mass Transport Climatology J. A. Staude, C. R. Stearns, M. A. Lazzara, L. M. Keller, and S.
Evapotranspiration Estimates over Canada based on Observed, GR2 and NARR forcings Korolevich, V., Fernandes, R., Wang, S., Simic, A., Gong, F. Natural.
Observed & Simulated Profiles of Cloud Occurrence by Atmospheric State A Comparison of Observed Profiles of Cloud Occurrence with Multiscale Modeling Framework.
Weather and Climate. Introduction Before the end of June 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the year.
INTRODUCTION Recent efforts within the National Weather Service’s Southern Region (NWS-SR) to refine criteria for excessive heat revealed high occurrences.
Dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Erin Munsell Summer 2015 Group Meeting August 17 th, 2015.
Analysis of Typhoon Tropical Cyclogenesis in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Suzana J. Camargo and Adam H. Sobel.
Surface Fronts, Troughs, and Baroclinic Zones in the Great Lakes Region Neil Laird Hobart & William Smith Colleges Melissa Payer University at Albany/SUNY.
7. Air Quality Modeling Laboratory: individual processes Field: system observations Numerical Models: Enable description of complex, interacting, often.
ABC’s of weather forecasting NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON OPEN HOUSE – APRIL 30-MAY 1, 2016 RAY MARTIN –– Lead Forecaster.
PROGRAM B – Project B6.3 ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOEHN-LIKE WINDS IN EASTERN VICTORIA J.J Sharples, R.O Weber School of Physical,
T. Connor Nelson 09 December 2016 ATM: 509 Precipitation Processes
Global Circulation Models
Daniel M. Alrick 14th Cyclone Workshop Monday, September 22, 2008
Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart
The November 26, 2014 banded snowfall case in southern NY
Seasonal Frequency of Fronts and Surface Baroclinic Zones in the Great Lakes Region Melissa Payer Chemical, Earth, Atmospheric, and Physical Sciences Department.
Daniel M. Alrick 14th Cyclone Workshop Monday, September 22, 2008
Introduction to Modeling – Part II
COAMPS Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Developed by FNMOC and NRL (1996) Operational - MEL/FNMOC Experimental - NRL-MRY 27 km Spatial.
Meteorology & Air Pollution Dr. Wesam Al Madhoun
Effect of Coastal Upwelling on Circulation and Climate
Tong Zhu and Da-Lin Zhang 2006:J. Atmos. Sci.,63,
Presentation transcript:

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Numerical Modeling of Mountain Pine Beetle Transport by the Wind Peter L. Jackson Brendan Murphy Benjamin Burkholder UNBC Environmental Science & Engineering With assistance from: Melissa Darney, Brenda Moore, Vera Lindsay Funded by: NRCan/CFS Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Photo credits (clockwise from top): a) b&c) d) silviculture/images/valley_lrg.jpghttp:// silviculture/images/valley_lrg.jpg a) c) b) d)

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Introduction / Motivation MBP infestation has reached epidemic proportions in central BC affecting 4.2 million ha and 176 million m 3 of timber Emergence and flight in summer after 3 days of Tmax > 18 ºC but < 30°C Peak emergence for successful mass-attack occurs when Tmax > 25 ºC

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Dispersion is –active by flight over short distances / light wind (local scale: within stand over a few km) –passive advection due to winds and turbulence above and within canopy (landscape scale: between stands perhaps km) Passive transport allows epidemic to spread rapidly over great distances  little is known about passive transport and this is the focus of our work

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, MPB Spread in BC animation based on annual aerial survey of MPB “reds” (last year’s attack)

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, MPB Spread in BC eastward movement of the “front” spread of MPB limited by the -40 ºC annual minimum isotherm climate chg moves -40 ºC northeastward concern over MPB crossing the Rocky Mountains

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Objectives 1.Identify synoptic weather patterns present during periods of MPB dispersal (P1.12 by Murphy and Jackson) 2.Identify fundamental relationships between terrain features, atmospheric flows and MPB fallout zones (P1.7 by Moore and Jackson) 3.Assess potential for physics-based meteorological and dispersion models to estimate MPB dispersal from one year to the next

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Methods Passive transport of MPB is similar to transport and dispersion of air pollutants CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to simulate the atmosphere (wind, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc. on a nested 3D grid) The meteorological fields from RAMS will be used to calculate trajectories

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Evolution of HC2 composite 500 hPa and Lifted Index (shaded) based on NCEP Reanalysis data as upper ridge passes atmosphere becomes moderately unstable (Lifted index negative) resulting in “thermals” composite 2002

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Hasler Bear Lake Prince George

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Hourly output from RAMS simulation at model level 2 (~40 m AGL), from grid 4 at 3 km horizontal resolution (only every 2 nd wind vector shown) Hasler Bear Lake Prince George

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Time-height cross section modelled wind and temperature from MacKenzie (west of the Rockies) modelled wind and temperature from Chetwynd (east of the Rockies)

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Bear Lake – BCMF weather station N of Prince George, W of Rockies Plaza 400 – BCMWLAP weather station in Prince George Hasler – BCMWLAP weather station NE of Rockies

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Back Trajectories ending at 00Z 24 July 2002 (17:00 PDT) 105m 1100m

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Conclusions & Future Work RAMS seems capable of representing the conditions during MPB emergence and flight Two approaches to future atmospheric modelling: 1.Continue simulation and validation of case studies to predict where beetles go from one year to the next. To be used in real time for planning beetle control strategies. 2.Ensemble trajectories created for each grid point in the landscape, based on a runs of a large number of past peak emergence heating cycle events. To be used as input to beetle spread scenario planning models that are primarily for forest managers to assess the impact of silvicultural and management practice.

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Information Needs Need beetle validation / initialization data: –More documented MPB flight / emergence periods, ideally at daily resolution –More “case studies” of between stand movement for validation (especially isolated populations) –MPB time in flight, height of flight – how many fly above the canopy? – Prince George Doppler Radar holds intriguing promise…

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, July 14-15, 2004 Peak emergence event

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, Doppler radar image “clear air” returns are some type of insect  timing of appearance is consistent with peak emergence of MPB 0.5 degree PPI radar scan from 00Z 15 July 2004 (1700 PDT 14 July 2004) Reflectivity < 0 DBZ Echo tops 800 – 1500 m AGL

16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, The End