The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI A presentation of The Tyndall Centre’s Approach to Integrated Modelling of Climate and Air Pollution Policies Rachel Warren

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process (IIAP) Engages relevant stakeholders in co-production of knowledge on climate futures to inform planning, policy and assessment Consists of a Community IAM (CIAM) embedded within process of stakeholder interactions CIAM will enhance understanding of the implications of the human response to the climate change problem Will provide balanced approach by integrating together different disciplines including ancilliary benefits/ tradeoffs Will be multi-institutional Will address wide range of evolving policy questions

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI A Community Integrated Assessment Model, CIAM Four novel features….. Distributed … the “Grid” Flexible Modular Embedded in stakeholder review process Other features Multi-scale: regional models nested within global Sophisticated uncertainty analysis Long term view Ancilliary benefits/tradeoffs

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Example Content of Potential Future CIAM Economy Energy Social influences Technical progress World Transport World Agriculture Impact Systems may include : Global Ecosystem Module Global Coastal Module Health Module Extreme Event Module Hydrological model Agricultural model Climate System MAGICC Emissions of 6 COP Gases, SOx, NOx, PM Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SOx, NOx, PM adaptation mitigation Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change Stakeholder influence/social decision making S’ holder influence climate feedbacks interactions Direct effects of land use change on climate SCENGEN downscaling

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process: Community Integrated Assessment Model : Current Status Netherlands:ICIS Health module UK: Tyndall Centre MAGICC-SCENGEN Climate module (Norwich Germany: Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM) DINAS-coast Global Ecosystem Module UK: Tyndall Economics Module (Cambridge) Emissions

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Air Pollution & Climate Links (1): Continental Scale, 50 year timescale Overall Aim: Develop & implement model for scenario based estimation of future climate changes and LRTAP in Europe and their associated impacts on human health Specifically: Hold workshops between key IIASA staff and Imperial College ICCEPT energy modellers Construct a dynamic model of technical change and fuel switching tailored to RAINS requirements

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI …..continental scale cont’d Create interface between RAINS & CIAM using dynamic model to simulate technological options & fuel switching Use the combined system to create/analyse consistent dynamic scenarios for emissions of GHGs, NOx, SO2, formation of tropospheric ozone Create a radiative forcing module for primary & secondary PM and ground level ozone Link in human health modules for temperature & air pollution Policy analysis: scenarios, co-benefits, valuation Extend approach to RAINS PM and repeat Extend approach to RAINS – Asia and repeat

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI UK scale CIAM’s economic model (E3MG, Cambridge Econometrics) to have UK module Currently developed for CO2 only, but can be adapted to other GHG and SO2, NOx, primary PM, etc Able to simulate consequences of a range of climate/non- climate policies for GHG and air pollutants UK scale models simulate impacts on human health

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Air Pollution & Climate Links (2): Regional/City Scale (PhD) Collate/develop emission inventories for greenhouse gas(es) in e.g. NW England, Norwich Construct/use decarbonisation scenarios for these regions/cities using output from Tyndall North and UEA “Community Carbon Reduction Project” Examine implications of these scenarios for NOx, SO2, primary PM Examine implications for human health Examine effect of air pollution policies on GHGs

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI How to link scales? Using a nested hierarchy of scenarios Using CIAM structure to nest models using appropriate BCs Maximise consistency of approach to energy modelling at different scales Linkage of scales results in linkage of top-down and bottom-up modelling