energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector IES energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May 2005

Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003, (%) IES In GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %, including: In export a share of FEC 56,3 %, including: Receipts of tax and customs payments in the consolidated budget. A share of FEC of 32,8 %, including: Petroleum Gas Electropower Coal

IES Energy streams of Russia ( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.) Export Coal 162.8 Coal 33,9 Petroleum 269,3 Gas 213,3 Gas 684.1 Natural fuel Extraction and manufacture 1513,1 Autogasoline, diesel fuel, fuel black oil 82,0 Other mineral oil 24,9 electric power 4,4 Petroleum 539,6 Hydroelectricity 55,5 Nuclear Energy 44,1 Other 27,0 Resources - all Coal 143,1 Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7 Gas 473,7 Coal 13,0 Petroleum 8,9 Gas 7,8 Import Autogasoline 38,4, diesel fuel 34,8, fuel black oil 39,7 electric power 95,3 Other 27,0 Thermal power plants & Boiler-houses 236,1 Other receipts Internal consumption Russia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas). In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.

Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a level of 2000 IES Growth of GDP and consumption of energy at specific power consumption 2000 Share making savings of energy an increasing result by 2000, including technological and organizational (ТиО) and structural (С) Forecast consumption of energy without change of structure of economy Forecast consumption of energy Year All Change of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption of energy of GDP by 26-27 % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by 2020. Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.

Strategic reference points ES - 2020 Strategic reference points 1. Energy safety 2. Energy efficiency 3. Budgetary efficiency of energy 4. Ecological safety

Energy politics of Russia Using bowels 2. A home market 3. Fuel and energy balance 4. A regional politics 5. An external energy politics 6. An innovational politics

An external energy politics Maintenance of competitiveness in the traditional markets (Europe) 2. Diversify structures of export ( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the electric power) 3. Diversify commodity markets ( growth of a share of export to the countries ATR: Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %, Gas about 0 % up to 15 %, Development of the market of USA)

IES The forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum in Russia till 2020 on regions Programs and should provide conditions of licensing of bowels expanded reproduction of mineral-raw-material base: Gain of stocks of petroleum in quantity 7,5-10 billion т. Thus probable stocks and resources of the distributed fund in the basic areas of an oil recovery may provide reproduction of mineral-raw-material base the nearest 10-15 years no more than on 30-40 %. Other stocks should be added due to investigation and development of new territories and water areas of Russia. Attraction of investments in volume 45-47 billion is necessary The main areas of a gain of stocks of hydrocarbon fuel material will be West-Siberian, Leno-Tungus and Timano-Pechersk provinces. Far East (Sakhalin) East-Siberian European part West-Siberian Optimum variant Far East (Sakhalin) East-Siberian European part West-Siberian Moderate variant

In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m IES Resource base of the gas industry (the reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic m In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m Open Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia

Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources in Russia IES Moderate variant Optimum variant mln t c.f. mln t c.f. Nuclear Energy, billion kwh mln t c.f. mln t c.f. mln t c.f. Hydroelectri-citi, billion kwh mln t c.f. mln t c.f. mln t c.f. mln t c.f. Coal, mln t Gas, billion cubic m Petroleum, mln t

The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т IES The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т Attraction of investments in extraction in volume $130-135 billion is necessary The factors determining prospects of branch Quality of the prepared raw-material base Level of the world prices for petroleum Tax policy of the state Attraction of necessary volumes of investments In total on Russia Optimum variant Moderate variant Critical variant Far East European part West-Siberian East-Siberian

IES

The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum IES

Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м) IES Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м) Optimum variant European part West-Siberian East-Siberian Far East Moderate variant (the forecast) Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of densities of Western Siberia.

Export of energy resources from Russia IES Export of energy resources from Russia Dominant exported energy resources during all period petroleum and gas will stay. Export of all, mln t c.f. Optimum variant Moderate variant Petroleum & mineral oil, mln t Gas, billion cubic m Electric power, billion kwh Coal, mln t c.f.

Circuits oil- and gas mains IES Circuits oil mains in territory of Russia The plan of creation gas mains networks in Northeast Asia Circuits gas mains in territory of Russia Directions of gas streams Planned routes of pipelines Possible routes of pipelines

Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East IES Oil pipelines working Gas mains working Oil pipelines projected Gas mains projected

The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal IES The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal Consumption of own resources Negative Balance of export - Positive import Freight traffics of coal, mln t c.f. (numerator-2002, denominator-2020) Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East -West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in 2020 г

Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and priorities of territorial development of electric power industry (optimistic variant) IES Increase of manufacture on coal ТЭС and the decision of a problem of closed capacities of the Siberian hydroelectric power station European part 932 billion kwh Siberian and Far East 433 billion kwh Economy of gas in the European part 7-8 billion cubic m per one year European part Far East Siberian Hydroelectric power station, ТЭС and gas thermal power stations in cities The maximal development of the atomic power station; Modernisation ТЭС on gas; development ГТГУ-ГТУ ТЭС at a corner and water-power engineering

Wind and geothermal energy of Russia Geothermal energy of Russia IES Wind and geothermal energy of Russia Wind energy of Russia Geothermal energy of Russia

Electric power industry The forecast of investment needs of a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars) IES Petroleum industry The gas industry The coal industry Electric power industry The total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in 2001-2010 and from 400 up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex in the general investments of Russia will make 33-35 % in 2001-2005, will decrease up to 31-33 % in 2006-2010 and up to 20-24 % to 2020.

Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t) IES Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t) The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the report billion t equivalent Optimum variant Moderate variant Volume of quotas for Russia for the first budgetary period 2008-2012 Emissions of firm substances The volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to 2010 will make 75-80 % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach this level.