Observations show that the increase of carbon dioxide is fully caused by human activities Pieter P. Tans NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder,

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Presentation transcript:

Observations show that the increase of carbon dioxide is fully caused by human activities Pieter P. Tans NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado AGU fall meeting 10 December 2007

Fossil fuel data: CDIAC and BP DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON

Pulse response: CO2 ATM = exp( -t /363) exp( -t /74) exp ( -t /17) exp( -t /1.9) DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model, E.Maier-Reimer, 1987

sources: David Etheridge, CSIRO, Australia; ESRL DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON

GtC Cumulative fossil fuel emissions (Jan. 2007)331 ± 25 (source: CDIAC) Observed atmospheric increase (Jan. 2007)214 ± 8 (source: ESRL) Observed ocean increase through ± 19 (Sabine et al., Science 2004) oceans, extrapolated through DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON fossil fuel emissions + terrestrial sources = atmospheric increase + ocean

DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON fossil fuel emissions + terrestrial sources = atmospheric increase + ocean Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model, E. Maier-Reimer, 1987

DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON fossil fuel emissions + terrestrial sources = atmospheric increase + ocean Princeton Ocean Carbon Cycle Model, J. Sarmiento, 1992

DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON fossil fuel emissions + terrestrial sources = atmospheric increase + ocean Bern Model (HILDA), F. Joos, 2005

Conclusions: The observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since pre-industrial times is entirely due to human activities. The measured increases in the atmosphere and oceans add up to the cumulative fossil fuel emissions. The relative contribution of NET changes in terrestrial biomass and organic matter has dwindled over time and is now relatively small. DECADAL MASS BALANCE OF CARBON

Use of isotopic ratios to distinguish sources 13 C/ 12 C sample – 13 C/ 12 C reference 13 C/ 12 C reference 14 C/C sample δ 13 C 13 C/ 12 C ratio 14 C/C reference (approximate) (approximate) Atmosphere -8 ‰ From oceans -8 ‰ Terrestrial biosphere -26 ‰ Coal -24 ‰ Oil -28 ‰ Natural gas -45 ‰ ISOTOPIC RATIO SIGNATURES

Sources: Friedli (1986), Francey (1999 ), and ESRL & INSTAAR ISOTOPIC RATIO SIGNATURES

RECENT RATES OF CHANGE

more uptake

RECENT RATES OF CHANGE

5-year averaged, centered on 2000 (Gton C/year) 5-year averaged, centered on 2005 (Gton C/year) fossil emissions atmos. increase total uptake, of which: oceans terrestrial RECENT RATES OF CHANGE carbon budgets

CO2 GROWTHRATE and CLIMATE ANOMALIES

CO2 GROWTHRATE and CLIMATE ANOMALIES

Conclusion: 2/3 of the interannual variance of the CO2 growth rate is explained by the delayed response of the terrestrial biosphere to interannual variations of temperature and precipitation. CO2 GROWTHRATE and CLIMATE ANOMALIES