How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? Brian Enke SwRI Boulder, CO AUTHOR: Shadows of Medusa

Brainstorming.... Follow any thread of thought. Never ridicule or dismiss any idea. Write everything down!!

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? Paul Recer (AP), Gregg Easterbrook (New Republic), et al: ONE TRILLION DOLLARS “Huh???”

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? Bob Zubrin, et al: ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR* * INVESTMENT per YEAR!

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? President Bush, Sean O'Keefe, et al: PAY AS YOU GO ➢ $6 billion per year?

How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? $2b / year? $6b / year? More? Less? Somewhere inbetween?

All of these estimates are possible. ➢ US deficit spending ➢ (PAYG = PWCWA) ➢ CHEAPER MISSIONS ARE EASIER TO SELL ➢ What IS a Mars Mission, anyway?

How Low Can We Go?

Well, What Do You Want To Do?

We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! ➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! ➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) ➢ Risk assessment

We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! ➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) ➢ Risk assessment ➢ Timeframe

We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! ➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) ➢ Risk assessment ➢ Timeframe ➢ Investment per year

Baseline Mission: Mars Direct (NASA estimates from 2003) ➢ ROI: Good science ➢ Crew of 4 for 2 years ➢ 500 km surface range ➢ Payload: 54 tonnes ➢ Risk: Medium ➢ 7 years to develop ➢ $3.5 billion / year

Mars Direct $$ Assumptions (from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

Baseline Mission: Assumptions ● Ongoing investment vs. development investment ● Divide mission investment by 2 for ongoing (per year) ● $25m/tonne-to-Mars per launch (or $1b/Ares) ● $250m/lander, $1b/ERV

How Low Can We Go?

Zero Risk, Zero Investment Mission (Procrastinator's Paradise) ● Do Nothing ● Cancel the whole space program ● Donate space shuttles to museums ● Reduce the US federal deficit by $16 billion (to 429 billion) ➢ ROI: No investment ➢ Crew of 0 for (Inf) years ➢ 0 km surface range ➢ Payload: 0 tonnes ➢ Risk: Zero ➢ 0 years to develop ➢ $0 billion / year

Robotic Missions (Goodlife) ● Repeat the past 30 years ● Do Mars exploration solely with robotics ● Develop lots of human mission plans and theories ● Give talks at seminars ● Do some remote science to satisfy pesky scientists ➢ ROI: Minimal Science ➢ Crew of 0 for (inf) years ➢ 1 km surface range (now) ➢ Payload: < 5 tonnes ➢ Risk: Low ➢ 0 years to develop ➢ $1 billion / year

Find The Robot

Absolute Minimal Human Mission (Millionaire Burial) ● Send 1 person, crash landing ● No equipment ● No life support ● No return: Dead On Arrival ➢ ROI: RIP ➢ Crew of 1 for 0 years ➢ 0 km surface range ➢ Payload: <1 tonne ➢ Risk: Low to (Inf) ➢ 0 years to develop ➢ $0.1 billion / year

Minimal Living-Human Mission (Lonely Planets) ● Send 1 person safely ● No equipment ● Minimal life support for 1 year ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water) ● No return: Die On Mars ● Per Mission: $700m ➢ ROI: Tech demonstration ➢ Crew of 1 for 2 years ➢ 0 km surface range ➢ Payload: 12 tonnes ➢ Risk: Low (volunteer) ➢ 5 years to develop ➢ $0.35 billion / year

Long Term Minimal Mission (Settlement) ● Send 3 people safely ● Base building equipment ● CELSS life support for 6 years ($1b hab, 2 Ares) ● No return: Die On Mars ● Per Mission: $4b ➢ ROI: Mars settlement ➢ Crew of 3 for (Inf) years ➢ 500 km surface range ➢ Payload: 50 tonnes ➢ Risk: Medium (volunteer) ➢ 7 years to develop ➢ $2 billion / year

Minimal Return Mission (Lonely Science) ● Send 1 scientist safely ● Science equipment, ATV ● Minimal life support for 2 years ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water, 2 Ares) ● Return: ERV ● Per Mission: $4b ➢ ROI: Minimal Science ➢ Crew of 1 for 2 years ➢ 10 km surface range ➢ Payload: 40 tonnes ➢ Risk: High ➢ 7 years to develop ➢ $2 billion / year

Mars Direct ● Send 4 people safely ● Science equipment, Rover ● CELSS life support for 2 years ($700m hab, 2 Ares) ● Return: ERV ● Per Mission: $7b ➢ ROI: Good science ➢ Crew of 4 for 2 years ➢ 500 km surface range ➢ Payload: 54 tonnes ➢ Risk: Medium ➢ 7 years to develop ➢ $3.5 billion / year

NASA Mars Reference Mission (Nuclear Propulsion is our Best Friend) ● Send 6 or more people safely ● Science equipment, Rover ● CELSS life support for 2 years ($1.5b hab, 3 Ares) ● Return: ERV (orbit+surface) ● Per Mission: $12b (assume $2b for propulsion) ➢ ROI: Good science, tech ➢ Crew of 6+ for 2 years ➢ 500 km surface range ➢ Payload: 100 tonnes ➢ Risk: High ➢ 10 years to develop ➢ $6 billion / year

How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? How Low Can We Go?

Well, What Do You Want To Do?

We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! ➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) ➢ Risk assessment ➢ Timeframe ➢ Investment per year

This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections. Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute Author: Shadows of Medusa