1/18 Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality Shilpa Rao, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria Workshop on aspirational targets, Utrecht, Mar

2/18 Trends in Long-Term Scenario Development SRES scenarios (IPCC 2001) developed to examine a range of economic and demographic development outcomes- representative of uncertainty rangeSRES scenarios (IPCC 2001) developed to examine a range of economic and demographic development outcomes- representative of uncertainty range Scenarios broadly reflect policies that influence GHG emission drivers, such as demographic change, social and economic development, technological change, resource use, and pollution management. Scenarios broadly reflect policies that influence GHG emission drivers, such as demographic change, social and economic development, technological change, resource use, and pollution management. Recent long-term scenario development exercises are oriented towards examining wide range of climate change outcomes –i.e. climate first thinkingRecent long-term scenario development exercises are oriented towards examining wide range of climate change outcomes –i.e. climate first thinking

Source: IAM Workshop, Vienna, 2008 Reference Concentration Pathway A joint community effort between Integrated Assessment Modelers (IAMs) and Earth System Modelers (ESMs)A joint community effort between Integrated Assessment Modelers (IAMs) and Earth System Modelers (ESMs) Participation of experts from air pollution and climate, for gridded level inventory data and climate model runs Models need to model all radiative forcing factors (full suite of GHGs, aerosols, chemically active gases, and land use/land cover) Scenarios extend to 2300 Produce data at higher resolution for experimental climate change and atmospheric chemistry projections

4/18 Emissions Pathways

5/18 Integrated Scenario Analysis at IIASA Explore uncertainty of long-term development under climate constraints through limited set of scenarios (3): A2r, B2, B1 Scenario taxonomy (H/M/L) based on: -- emissions, -- vulnerability, -- stabilization levels, Integration: energy – agriculture – forestry sectors Multi-gas analysis Assess also implications of stabilization: -- technology choice (e.g. efficiency vs. supply) -- sectorial measures (which gas, when, where) -- economics (costs and savings) -- geopolitics of energy (winners/losers)

6/18 IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework GHG Emissions Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation Deforestation & Afforestation (modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)

7/18 Scenario Overview (World by 2100) 2000A2RB2B1 Population, GDP, $ PE, EJ GtC energy GtC forests 1<1 GtC-e all others 3854 GtC-e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabil. Levels (ppm-equiv)

8/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas

9/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas Biomass (including Non-Commercial)

10/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas

11/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy A2r GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas

12/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B2 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas

13/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B1 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Renewables Gas Nuclear

14/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario

15/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario

16/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario

17/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario

18/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario

19/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario

20/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario

21/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario

22/18 Climate Stabilization Scenarios Climate Sensitivity ~2.5 degrees

23/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 1390 ppm target

24/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 1090 ppm target

25/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 970 ppm target

26/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 820 ppm target

27/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 670 ppm target

28/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 480 ppm target

29/18 Contribution by GHG to Mitigation

30/18 Contribution by Sector to Mitigation

31/18 Baseline Scenarios Primary Energy per Capita

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37/18 Baseline Scenarios Emission Intensity

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43/18 A2r Climate Policy-670 ppm CO2eq.

44/18 Electricity Generation Western Europe, A2r_670

45/18 Electricity Generation Centrally Planned Asia, A2r_670

46/18 Transport Sector Centrally Planned Asia A2r_670

47/18 Residential Sector Centrally Planned Asia, A2r_670

48/18 NOX Emissions, A2r scenario Western Europe

49/18 NOX Emissions, A2r scenario China

50/18 BC Emissions, A2r In industrialized countries emissions decline in transport and industrial sectors, due to stringent regulations, technology improvement and fuel switching (synthetic fuels, hydrogen) In industrialized countries emissions decline in transport and industrial sectors, due to stringent regulations, technology improvement and fuel switching (synthetic fuels, hydrogen) In developing countries, there is a shift from traditional fuels to gas and liquid-based systems in the residential sector In developing countries, there is a shift from traditional fuels to gas and liquid-based systems in the residential sector

51/18 Long-term development of Emissions Due to technology improvements and shifts to natural gas based fuels, intensity of fossil fuel and biomass related emissions declines over time Due to technology improvements and shifts to natural gas based fuels, intensity of fossil fuel and biomass related emissions declines over time Decoupling of pollutant emissions from CO2 Decoupling of pollutant emissions from CO2

52/18 Co-benefits of climate mitigation, CPA A2_670 SO2, NOX

53/ Proportional scaling Exposure driven

54/ Proportional scaling Exposure driven

55/ Proportional scaling Exposure driven

56/ Proportional scaling Exposure driven

57/ Proportional scaling Exposure driven

58/18 Concluding Thoughts Current trends in long-term scenario development include detailed technological information for climate policy analysis Include detailed information on air pollutants developed with the AP community-albeit so far for the CMC Possibility to provide useful support to air pollution community and contribute to issues of co-benefits Possible in future to examine wide range of issues related to air quality- for example pollution related health impacts