- 1 - Lavutslippsutvalget 06/03-06 What makes technology change? Barriers for change within the construction and real estate sector What are they and how could they be managed? Stein Rognlien Statsbygg

- 2 - Energy Use in the Building Sector A brief overview of the distribution of demand for residential and commercial buildings: For heating Residential Commercial Total energy use Heating by el.

- 3 - Politics vs. Real Life It was a political objective/goal that new commercial buildings from 1997 onwards should use less energy than older ones. But the result has been the exact opposite … (…) … the aim was a reduction in the energy consumption by 20 %. The buildings in Enova’s energy registration show an increase of about 20 % E. Arnstad, director of Enova in NRK 4/3-05

- 4 - Energy Consumption-Commercial Buildings

- 5 - Political Guidelines/- Resolutions Significance for the Construction– Real Estate Sector  renewable energy sources shall, in a “normal year”, produce enough electrical power to meet demands  use of electricity for heating purposes shall be reduced significantly  new renewable energy sources (wind, biomass, solar) shall in the future meet a significantly larger part of the total energy consumption  increase in water as a carrier for heating by 4 TWh/year before 2010  use of oil for heating purposes (in buildings) shall be reduced by at least 25 %  production of energy from waste shall to a significant degree replace fossil fuels  provide a (political) framework that makes it possible to establish gas power plants with “CO 2 handling”

- 6 - Conflicts as to Objectives/Goals  (total) lack of political prioritisation  district heating vs. low energy buildings  gas (to electricity) vs. (new) renewable solutions  centralised vs. decentralised energy supply  energy flexibility vs. energy efficiency  timetable as to ”face out”/”face in”of solutions  energy from biomass; stationary or transport  waste; a disposal problem or an energy source  change of direction as to R&D

- 7 - Construction-Real Estate Sector  the building sector actors will not ”voluntarily” make efforts that really matters as to sustainable energy solutions unless they are economically rewarded  there is no gains as such for the participants of the building sector to be energy efficient  consumer orientation/- demand  it is a process, not a product  low risk profile/almost adverse as to risk

- 8 - Public Directive There is a public directive in Norway called “Utredningsinstruksen”. The directive is to ensure :  adequate preparations and control with all public reforms, change of rules and regulations etc.  that all relevant and essential economic, administrative and other consequences are accounted for  that economical consequences are assessed as to both expenses and income for those who are affected, including governmental, county and local governments together with business sectors and individuals  that community economic evaluations are done  evaluation of all essential uncertainties and their effects/consequences (benefit/costs) on the proposed actions

- 9 - The Way Forward ?  define the primary objective(s) as clearly and as unambiguous as possible  set up a R&D project with the necessary experts that in a holistic way look at (all) the main different routes/pathways to the goal(s)  find the consequences connected to the different pathways as demanded by “Utredningsinstruksen”  make a choice/ a decision as to the way(s) forward

- 10 -

Analysis of Consequences Choices made today will have large consequences for the future. It is now essential to define and evaluate the risks/uncertainties as to the different pathways/choices that will take us from a carbon intensive to a sustainable energy system:  economic factors/economic consequences  technical factors  social issues  interdependencies between pathways/solutions  robustness of solutions  lock-in effects/-situations/path dependencies  timetable as to “phase in”/”phase out”  contingency plans