Climate Change and Malaysia

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change and Malaysia Numerical Weather Prediction Division Malaysian Meteorological Department

Global Warming

Figure 1: Global Averaged Surface Temperature (IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis) Twelve of the thirteen years in the period (1995-2007) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the observation record Global temperatures have risen by about 0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century

What causes weather & climate? INSOLATION [INcoming SOLAR radiATION Differential heating of the earth’s surface The over-riding force that initiates global atmospheric circulation is due to the unequal amount of INcoming SOLar radiATION or "insolation" that reaches the Earth's surface. The diagram on this slide illustrates how intercepted insolation varies across the Earth's surface, where there is a global surplus over the tropics and a global deficit over the poles. It is important to understand how global wind and ocean circulation patterns are generated in order to understand how these circulation patterns have altered throughout time and therefore have changed global climates.

Natural Causes of Climate Variation

Milankovitch Cycles Variation in Internal Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino Northern Atlantic Oscillation Indian Ocean dipole etc) Variation in Oceanic Circulations Volcanic Eruptions

Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation

Anthropogenic Activities Emissions of greenhouse gases & aerosols Change in land-use Deforestation

Malaysia: Present Climate

WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION) LANGKAWI PETALING JAYA BUTTERWORTH SUBANG

EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION) KOTA BARU KUANTAN MERSING KUALA TRENGGANU

EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION) KOTA KINABALU KUCHING SANDAKAN MIRI

WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE) BUTTERWORTH KOTA BARU PETALING JAYA KUANTAN

EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE) KOTA KINABALU KUCHING SANDAKAN MIRI

1997 1977 1982 1991 1987 1972

Global Climate Simulations

Different Emission Scenarios

Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)

Annual Rainfall Changes (%): Nine GCMs Ensemble Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection, Temperature Increase for Peninsular Malaysia ~ 2.8°C East Malaysia ~ 2.6 °C Rainfall Variation (%) for Malaysia based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection

Regional Climate Simulations Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional detail that impact assessment on climate change require. A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM is used to develop temporally and spatially fine scale information. In the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is being used.

Orographic Resolution PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44° HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75° PRECIS model resolution 50km HadCM3 model resolution 2.5° x 3.75°

PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations

PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990) Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature for Malaysia using PRECIS 5 year running averages used

MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for Malaysia using PRECIS 5 year running averages used

Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999 1.3 °C 1.9°C 3.1°C 1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C 1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C 1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C 1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C 1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C 1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C 1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999 -11.3 6.4 11.9 -18.7 -6.0 4.1 -10.2 2.3 14.1 -14.6 -0.2 15.2 -9.1 –1.3 6.2 -8.9 –1.2 0.3 -17.5 –12.8 –3.6 Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly (%) Relative to 1990 – 1999 2020 - 2029 2050 - 2059 2090 - 2099

Thank You