Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions Ron Rancourt, David French Topics:  Peak Oil defined;  Review of the conference;  Individual and community solutions. Presentation Available online:

World Peak Oil defined The point at which world oil production maxes out, and begins to decline forever. July 2008 (we are at the peak)‏ Geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted US Peak oil in 1956, 14 years before it occurred in

World Peak Oil cont.. A Global Supply-Demand problem China, India growing, becoming more affluent World oil sources are in decline No significant new discoveries being made despite massive investment Last remaining sources are in politically unsettled countries Current exporting countries are keeping more for themselves!

There is only so much oil... Supply-Demand Gap Source: ireland.orgwww.aspo- ireland.org

There is only so much oil... Supply-Demand Gap

Implications World demand on decreasing supply forces prices up The cost of everything increases No substitution for easily accessible, cheap oil No technological quick-fix If it wasn't for the current global financial crisis we would see $150/barrel oil today.

Alberta Tar Sands Worst environmental disaster in Cdn history. Consumes massive amounts of natural gas and fresh water to process bitumen Can't meet demand Other liquid alternatives to oil can't make up the difference either EROI (Energy Return on Investment) on oil alternatives is too low

Alberta Tar Sands: Syncrude The Syncrude Canada oil sands upgrader facility in Fort McMurray (Larry MacDougal_Globe and Mail)‏

Individual and Community Solutions Plan C: Curtailment, Community Individuals have most potential to make a difference:  Our Housing, Food and Transportation amounts to 2/3 of all personal energy consumption. Eco-Village/Intentional Community options. Local Food, local economy

Urban Cities Cost to build and maintain roads, infrastructure and services will rise dramatically Ottawa has and will postpone/cancel road/bridge projects due to high fuel costs. Transit is the way to go. Buildings: Retrofit incentives required for homes and commercial buildings for energy efficiency beyond LEED, EcoStar. Forward thinking? Time is running out. Governments are slow moving, often stand in the way of progress. It's up to us.

Urban Cities Poor design promotes sprawling suburbs  Expensive to service, maintain Ottawa has unique characteristics:  Spread out East West  Greenbelt, since 1958, was intended to prevent sprawl, today it's used as an excuse to support it.  Developers, the OMB rule.

Ottawa People are starting to understand that the city's finances -- driven by rapid suburban growth, demand for more government services and sharply rising costs for those services -- are not sustainable. Patrick Dare, The Ottawa Citizen Published: Monday, November 10, 2008

Changing Cities Post Carbon Cities Guide Take examples from successful cities around the world. Fast-track energy reducing policies, incentives Divert more money from road budget to rail transit, bicycle network

Changing Cities Preparing for Peak Oil  A new guide for municipalities  By the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (UK) and Post Carbon Institute 

Individual Choices Drive less, go from 2 cars to 1, share a vehicle with a neighbour  Smart Jitney, Vrtu-car, CommunAuto Buy Local Food, share a garden Insulate your house German Passive House (heat it with a hair dryer!)‏ Passive Solar space/water heating

House Insulation Consider whole-house as a system.  Before replacing your furnace, look at your building envelope.  Air quality, humidity, energy use Building practices past and future: We were not concerned with leaky houses since energy was cheap. Now we need airtight houses with smaller heating/cooling requirements

German Passive House

Solar hot water Cost effective, shorter payback than PV electricity H2Ottawa project to help people through the process - Can be used with radiant floor heating, and combined with other water heating systems

References  Passive House UK: Ottawa Citizen Nov 10: City Cash woes veer out of control  c5bd444e5dff  Greber plan, Greenbelt, Ottawa history:  Peak Oil Analysis   Association for the stufy of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO):   Response to Peak Oil    Reports from other cities (Hamilton), provinces, states that are taking action: