Global Climate Change Sabine Perch-Nielsen 26 February 2009 innovateZIS, Zurich International School

innovateZIS slide 2 26 February 2009 What is it all about? Greenhouse gases: CO 2, methane, nitrous oxides… The Greenhouse Gas Effect:  an important and welcome mechanism

innovateZIS slide 3 26 February 2009 We are emitting huge amounts of GHGs due to energy use, deforestation, agriculture and others: total carbon emissions from fossil fuels CDIAC, 2009

innovateZIS slide 4 26 February 2009 Our emissions are causing the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere to rise Estimations from ice cores and direct atmospheric measurements (red) atmospheric CO 2 concentration (ppm) IPCC, WG1, 2007

innovateZIS slide 5 26 February 2009 This intensifies the greenhouse gas effect … Greenhouse gases: CO 2, methane, nitrous oxides…

innovateZIS slide 6 26 February 2009 … causing temperatures to rise… Trift-Glacier, Berner Oberland

innovateZIS slide 7 26 February 2009 … worldwide. change , IPCC, WG1, 2007 change in global temperature at the surface in the last 25 years °C change per decade IPCC, 1250 contributing authors, 2500 authors, 2500 reviewers, unanimously XX by 130 countries

innovateZIS slide 8 26 February 2009 The many elements of the climate system IPCC, WG1, 2007

innovateZIS slide 9 26 February 2009 Where are we heading? Estimations from ice cores and direct atmospheric measurements (red) atmospheric CO 2 concentration (ppm) IPCC, WG1, 2007 ?

innovateZIS slide February 2009 It of course depends on our emissions: Raupach et al scenario B1 scenario A2 range of IPCC scenarios for 2100

innovateZIS slide February 2009 So where are we heading? range of IPCC scenarios for 2100 IPCC, WG1, 2007 atmospheric CO 2 concentration (ppm) ? scenario B1 scenario A2

innovateZIS slide February 2009 Where we are heading if we continue BAU: scenario B1 scenario A2 scenarios B1 / A2, IPCC, SPM WG1, 2007 change in global temperature at the surface compared to

innovateZIS slide February 2009 scenario 1scenario 2 By 2100: IPCC, WG2, 2007

innovateZIS slide February 2009 Where are we heading today? Raupach et al., 2007 scenario B1 scenario A2  current growth rate in emissions is higher than any of the IPCC scenarios!

innovateZIS slide February 2009 How can we avoid “dangerous climate change”?  stay below 2°C global warming (compared to pre-industrial -> 1.3°C compared to today)  stabilise atmospheric CO 2 concentration < approx. 450 ppm  reduce global emissions by ~ 50% by 2050 and ~ 80% by 2100 compared to Raupach et al scenario B1 scenario A2 2°C scenario

innovateZIS slide February 2009 Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” IPCC, WG3, 2007 The area of all squares together need to be reduced by 50% by 2050: goal 2050

innovateZIS slide February 2009 Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” Wikipedia, WRI 2006 poverty: % of population living on less than 1 USD a day

innovateZIS slide February 2009 Reduction targets for developed countries  global emissions need to be reduced by ~ 50% by 2050 and ~ 80% by 2100 compared to 1990  under “common but differentiated responsibility” this means that developed countries must reduce their emissions even more than that

innovateZIS slide February 2009 When should we start reducing: Now or later? IPCC, WG3, 2007  „Later“ should not be an option. Not because damage by climate change in 10 years is so high, but because the necessary goals become impossible to achieve.

innovateZIS slide February 2009 To take home  A world with a different climate is not far away but already seriously affects our and our children’s lives.  The dimensions of global temperature rise might seem small (2 or 3°C), but it has an enormous impact on our lives.  The longer we wait the more restricted options will be.  Rising global temperatures cannot be stopped but only slowed down: constant concentration (2000) -> still increase of 0.1°C per decade. We will also have to adapt a changing climate.  Avoiding dangerous climate change is a huge and urgent worldwide challenge. The main goals are to stop deforestation, increase energy efficiency and boost renewable energies.  The Stern review suggests three essential policy elements: carbon pricing, technology policy, and removal of barriers to behavioural change.  Emission reductions are “cheap” – compared to inaction (-> Stern review)

innovateZIS slide February 2009 myclimate offsetting carbon managementeducation climate & energy

innovateZIS slide February 2009 myclimate  high quality offsets, only energy, no forestry  non-profit, high credibility, min. 80% of offset receipts go into projects  voluntary market, not compliance market  among the best carbon offset providers worldwide: ○2007: Tufts University (comparison of 13) ○2008: environmental publisher ENDS (comparison of 170 offset providers globally)  from 60’000 CHF in 2003 to 6’000’000 CHF in 2008

Thank you