The role of expert assessments in international environmental affairs William Clark Global Environmental Assessment Project Harvard University

The Problem… > 200 international environmental treaties … most requiring periodic assessments of –scientific information on causes, prospects –evaluations of impacts –efficacy of response strategies. Through complex processes engaging ‘000s How are we doing? How to improve?

The broader context If the “information age” is changing relationships of “power & interdependence” in the international arena ( Keohane & Nye ‘98) Just how does it do so? What kinds of information, produced in what kinds of institutions, have what kinds of impacts on international affairs? What does this mean for practice of analysis & assessment in international contexts?

The Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) Project 5 yr research and training program to address these issues for environmental info international, interdisciplinary team –Clark, Parson, Jasanoff, Holdren, Dickson –Keohane, McCarthy, Schrag, Jaeger –Doctoral and postdoctoral fellows (23 + 5) research papers, seminar, workshops, web

What is an “Assessment”? A technical report produced by a suitably sanctioned international committee? A social process conducted within a framework of international institutions? A distributed information and decision support system linking knowledge and action across scales?

What are the effects of assessments on action? Potentially, contributing to change across a spectrum covering: –contents of the global “garbage can” –issue frames and agendas –strategies of actors –policy commitments In practice, more on upper end of spectrum

What distinguishes effective assessments? Saliency… –responsive to changing needs of specific users –avoiding the pitfalls of “universalism” Credibility… –to specific audiences, not necessarily the user –avoiding the pitfall of making only the consensual credible.

On what do saliency and credibility most depend? Historical context –position in the issue cycle influences audience, thus what is salient, credible to whom; –avoid pitfall of anachronistic assessment Characteristics of the assessment Characteristics of the user

Characteristics of assessments that affect saliency, credibility Structure –“embeddedness” in decision making institutions –provision for linking knowledge, users x-scales Participation –universal vs. local knowledge –scholarly vs. political credentials Scope of content: causes, effects, options Treatment of dissent, technical uncertainty

Characteristics of audience that affect saliency, credibility Interests Political openness / amplification channels Technical capacity

Implications for practice Many details of design... Reconceptualize international assessment as process of co-production through which interactions of experts and users define, shape, validate a shared body of usable knowledge. Work for international system of research and assessment, coupling global knowledge and local use through national institutions.