U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration ETA Programs in a New Economy

2 Outline 1)National Labor Market Trends 2)Overview of the Nations Performance 3)Challenges the System faces due to Economic Changes

U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration National Labor Market Trends Betty McGrath, NC Employment Security Commission

4 Economic Shift During the latter half of the 20 th Century, manufacturing industries were viewed as the source of good, high paying and stable jobs Since the early 1990’s the economy has been undergoing a shift from an economy predominately defined by goods producing industries to one that is defined by service providing industries Since the late 1990’s we have experienced significant job losses within the goods producing industries and job growth within the service providing industries.

5 Industry Classification North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

6 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment Total Nonfarm and Industrial Domain Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and

7 Goods Producing Industries Employment Changes between 1996 and 2006: –Lost over 3 million manufacturing jobs –Added 2.1 million construction jobs –Added 47,000 jobs in natural resources and mining

8 Goods Producing Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment

9 Manufacturing Industries Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment Industry 1996 Employment 2000 Employment 2006 Employment Manufacturing17,237,000 17,263,00014,197,000 Primary Metal Manufacturing 639, , ,100 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 1,647,500 1,752,600 1,553,900 Machinery Manufacturing 1,466,800 1,454,700 1,191,400 Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 603, , ,300 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 1,746,600 1,820,000 1,316,400 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Computer Manufacturing 591, , ,500 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 1,973,700 2,055,800 1,765,000 Textile Mills 443, , ,600 Textile Product Mills 216, ,100 Apparel Manufacturing 743, , ,400 Paper Manufacturing 631, , ,300 Printing and Related Support Activities 815, , ,900 Chemical Manufacturing 984, , ,700 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 920, , ,900

10 Service Producing Industries Employment Changes between 1996 and 2006: –Gained over 4.1 million jobs in education and health services –Gained over 4 million jobs in professional and business services –Gained over 2.4 million jobs in government –Gained over 2.3 million jobs in leisure and hospitality

11 Service Providing Industries Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment

12 Service Providing Industries Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment

13 Service Providing Industries Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment Industry 1996 Employment 2000 Employment 2006 Employment Education and Health Services 13,683,000 15,109,000 17,838,000 Educational Services 2,077,600 2,390,400 2,918,400 Health Care and Social Assistance 11,604,900 12,718,000 14,919,900 Ambulatory Health Care Services 3,939,900 4,320,300 5,283,100 Hospitals 3,772,800 3,954,300 4,427,100 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 2,379,900 2,583,200 2,900,900 Social Assistance 1,512,300 1,860,200 2,308,900 Professional and Business Services 13,462,000 16,666,000 17,552,000 Professional, Scientific, and Technical 5,337,100 6,733,900 7,371,700 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,702,700 1,796,000 1,809,400 Administrative and Support and Waste Management 6,422,100 8,136,000 8,370,700 Leisure and Hospitality 10,777,000 11,862,000 13,143,000 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,522,100 1,787,900 1,927,000 Accommodation and Food Services 9,254,300 10,073,500 11,216,200 Government 19,539,000 20,790,000 21,990,000 Federal Government 2,877,000 2,865,000 2,728,000 State Government 4,606,000 4,786,000 5,080,000 Local Government 12,056,000 13,139,000 14,182,000

14 Unemployment and Mass Layoffs Changes in the civilian labor force –Between 1996 and 2006 the civilian labor force grew –Unemployment rose during 2002, 2003 and 2004 –Between 2000 and 2006, BLS reported that there were 122,889 Mass Layoff events. –Over 41,000 of these events were in manufacturing industries

15 Average Annual Labor Force, Employed, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate* ( ) *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Force Statistics Current Population Survey (CPS) YearCivilian Labor ForceEmployedUnemployedRate ,943,000126,708,000 7,236, ,297,000129,558,000 6,739, ,673,000131,463,000 6,210, ,368,000133,488,000 5,880, ,583,000136,891,000 5,692, ,734,000136,933,000 6,801, ,863,000136,485,000 8,378, ,510,000137,736,000 8,774, ,401,000139,252,000 8,149, ,320,000141,730,000 7,591, ,428,000144,427,000 7,001,0004.6

16 Projections Every 2 years BLS Releases Projections: –Labor Force –Industry –Occupation Cover a 10 year time period Latest projections span the time period

17 Labor Force Projections The US Labor Force is expected to increase by 14 million –Represents a 10% increase over 2004 The Labor Force will change due to composition of the population and rates of participation –Labor Force will continue to age, –Baby boomers will be between years, –Percentage of young workers will decrease, –Percentage of women will increase, –Hispanic Labor Force will reach 25.8 million by 2014.

18 Labor Force Projections* Change Percent Distribution NumberPercent Total147,401,000162,100,000 14,699, %100.0% Age years 22,268,000 22,158, , %15.1%13.7% years102,122,000105,627,000 3,505,0003.4%69.3%65.2% 55 years and older 23,011,000 34,315,000 11,304, %15.6%21.2% Gender Male 78,980,000 86,194,000 7,214,0009.1%53.6%53.2% Female 68,421,000 75,906,000 7,485, %46.4%46.8% Race White121,086,000129,936,000 8,850,0007.3%82.1%80.2% Black 16,638,000 19,433,000 2,795, %11.3%12.0% Asian 6,271,000 8,304,000 2,033, %4.3%5.1% All Other Groups 3,406,000 4,427,000 1,021, %2.3%2.7% Hispanic Origin 19,272,000 25,760,000 6,488, %13.1%15.9% *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Force Projections

19 BLS Industry Projections Employment Growth will continue to be concentrated in the service providing sectors Goods Producing will continue to decrease –Manufacturing will continue to decline but at a slower rate –Construction industries will grow but at a slower pace Several Service Providing sectors will contribute the most growth –Educational services –Health Care and Social Assistance –Professional and Business Services

20 BLS Industrial Projections Goods Producing Industries Industry2004 Employment2014 EmploymentNumeric Change Goods Producing Industries excluding agriculture 21,817,300 21,787,300-30,000 Mining 523, ,400-45,800 Construction 6,964,500 7,756, ,400 Manufacturing 14,329,600 13,553, ,600 *Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Industrial Projections

21 Bureau of Labor Statistics Industrial Projections Service Providing Industries Industry2004 Employment2014 EmploymentNumeric Change Service Providing Industries110,374,400129,089,600 18,715,200 Utilities 570, ,600-7,500 Wholesale trade 5,654,900 6,130, ,900 Retail trade 15,034,500 16,683,200 1,648,700 Transportation and warehousing 4,250,000 4,755, ,900 Information 3,138,300 3,502, ,800 Financial activities 8,051,900 8,901, ,400 Professional and business services 16,413,700 20,979,900 4,566,200 Educational services 2,766,400 3,664, ,100 Health care and social assistance 14,187,200 18,482,100 4,294,900 Leisure and hospitality 12,479,100 14,693,800 2,214,700 Other services 6,209,900 6,943, ,500 Federal government 2,727,500 2,770,900 43,400 State and local government 18,890,900 21,019,100 2,128,200

22 BLS Occupational Projections Total Employment projected to increase by 18.9 million jobs over the period –Professional and Related Occupations and Service Occupations will contribute the most growth –Professional and Related occupations will increase by over 6 million jobs –Service occupations will increase by over 5.2 million jobs –Production occupations and Farming, fishing and forestry occupations will continue to decline

23 Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections All Occupations and Major Occupational Groups Occupation 2004 Employment 2014 Employment Numeric Change Percent Change Total, All Occupations145,612,332164,539,901 18,927, % Management, business, and financial occupations 14,987,482 17,142,266 2,154, % Professional and related occupations 28,543,961 34,590,233 6,046, % Service occupations 27,672,566 32,929,719 5,257, % Sales and related occupations 15,330,153 16,806,403 1,476,2509.6% Office and administrative support occupations 23,907,026 25,287,322 1,380,2965.8% Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,025,917 1,013,038-12, % Construction and extraction occupations 7,738,480 8,669, , % Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,747,490 6,404, , % Production occupations 10,561,681 10,483,068-78, % Transportation and material moving occupations 10,097,577 11,213,996 1,116, %

24 Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections Fastest Growing Occupations by Percent Change Occupation 2004 Employment 2014 Employment Numeric Change Percent Change Replacement and Growth Openings Home health aides623,982973,696349, %431,464 Network systems and data communications analysts 231,271357,461126, %153,418 Medical assistants387,104588,637201, %273,144 Physician assistants 61,963 92,726 30, % 40,282 Computer software engineers, applications459,753682,180222, %267,888 Physical therapist assistants 58,671 84,605 25, % 35,723 Dental hygienists157,803226,163 68, % 81,813 Computer software engineers, systems software340,297486,459146, %179,812 Dental assistants267,436381,747114, %189,084 Personal and home care aides701,218988,497287, %399,619 Network and computer systems administrators278,381385,249106, %137,742 Database administrators104,382144,281 39, % 50,687 Physical therapists154,541211,316 56, % 71,994 Forensic science technicians 9,823 13,399 3, % 5,889 Veterinary technologists and technicians 60,017 81,214 21, % 29,022

25 Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections Fastest Growing Occupations by Numeric Change Occupation 2004 Employment 2014 Employment Numeric Change Percent Change Replacement and Growth Openings Retail salespersons4,256,1384,991, , %2,282,971 Registered nurses2,393,5593,096, , %1,203,429 Customer service representatives2,062,9322,534, , % 778,049 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,373,7972,813, , % 890,043 Waiters and waitresses2,251,6212,627, , %1,534,265 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 2,149,8132,516, , %1,298,349 Home health aides 623, , , % 431,464 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants1,455,3641,780, , % 515,906 General and operations managers1,806,9912,114, , % 648,687 Personal and home care aides 701, , , % 399,619 Elementary school teachers, except special education1,456,9751,722, , % 586,790 Accountants and auditors1,176,2391,440, , % 485,893 Office clerks, general3,137,8403,401, ,4708.4% 958,455 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand2,430,1882,678, , %1,042,316 Receptionists and information clerks1,132,6261,378, , % 524,179

26 Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections Occupations by Replacement and Growth Openings Occupation 2004 Employment 2014 Employment Numeric Change Percent Change Replacement and Growth Openings Retail salespersons4,256,1384,991, , %2,282,971 Cashiers, except gaming3,469,9393,577, ,6033.1%1,795,859 Waiters and waitresses2,251,6212,627, , %1,534,265 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 2,149,8132,516, , %1,298,349 Registered nurses2,393,5593,096, , %1,203,429 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand2,430,1882,678, , %1,042,316 Office clerks, general3,137,8403,401, ,4708.4% 958,455 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,373,7972,813, , % 890,043 Customer service representatives2,062,9322,534, , % 778,049 General and operations managers1,806,9912,114, , % 648,687 Elementary school teachers, except special education1,456,9751,722, , % 586,790 Stock clerks and order fillers1,565,9371,451, , % 579,496 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 1,453,6251,640, , % 569,021 Child care workers1,280,1951,456, , % 524,658 Receptionists and information clerks1,132,6261,378, , % 524,179

27 National Labor Market Trends Dynamic and Changing Economy –Industry Shifts from Goods Producing to Service Providing –Changing Demographics of our workforce –Growth Occupations Our Workforce Development System Plays a critical role in the success of our economy –Help to assist employers with locating and employing a skilled labor force –Assist workers with obtaining new employment opportunities –Assist workers with gaining the skills needed to compete in our dynamic and global economy

28 The Nation’s Performance: PY01-PY05 National Performance –How has the nation’s performance changed in light of the changes within the economy shift? Review of performance Who are we serving? National Statistics Conclusion

29 WIA Participants and Exiters PY 01-05

30 Participation Levels by Cohort

31 Who is the typical WIA Adult? Female Unemployed Low Income Age Completed 12 th grade and received diploma

32 Who is the typical WIA Dislocated Worker? Female Unemployed Low Income Age Completed 12 th grade and received diploma 13% of population reported as HS dropouts

33 Who is the typical WIA Youth? Female Highest grade attainment is 9 th grade Basic skills deficient

34 Who is the typical Wagner-Peyser Participant? Male Aged18-44 High School Graduate or GED 3% were referred to WIA services

35 Entered Employment Rate The PY 05 Adult National average negotiated goal was 78%. The PY 05 Adult National actual performance was 77%. The PY 05 DW National average negotiated goal for this measure is 82.1%. The PY 05 DW National actual performance for this measure is 82.5%.

36 Employment Retention Rate The PY 05 Adult negotiated goal was 82.1%. The PY 05 Adult national performance was 82.5%. The PY 05 DW National average negotiated goal for this measure is 88%. The PY 05 DW National actual performance for this measure is 88.1%.

37 WIA Adult and DW Average Earnings The National DW Average Earnings in PY 05 was $14,150. The National Adult Average Earnings in PY 05 was $11,208. *This is a recalculated measure based on the new average earnings definition.

38 Wagner-Peyser Entered Employment & Employment Retention The Quarter End 3/31/06 actual Entered Employment Rate was 61%. The Quarter End 3/31/07 actual Entered Employment Rate was 63%. The Quarter End 3/31/06 actual Employment Retention Rate was 80%. The Quarter End 3/31/07 actual Employment Retention Rate was 83%.

39 Older Youth Entered Employment Rate

40 Older Youth Employment Retention Rate

41 Older Youth Earnings Change

42 Our Workforce Needs In a Changing Economy Examined: –The National Labor Market –The National Performance for ETA Programs Examine Challenges the Workforce System faces due to Economic Changes

43 International Comparison of GDP Per Hour Worked in 2005 Economic Strengths & Challenges

44 Economic Strengths & Challenges Remain Competitive in the Global Economy –Shift to a Knowledge Economy expected to continue –Service-producing industries will account for 18.7 million (or 99%) of the 18.9 million jobs generated from 2004 – 2014

45 Jobs in the Knowledge Economy By 2014: 31% of all jobs will require Post Secondary Award or Higher Degree 90% of the fastest growing jobs require education and training past high school 63% of High Wage, High Growth jobs projected from 2004 – 2014 will require a bachelor’s degree

46 Education Pays In More Ways Than One Unemployment rate in 2006 Education attained Median weekly earnings in 2006 (Percent)(Dollars) 1.4Doctoral degree1, Professional degree1, Master's degree1, Bachelor's degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High-school graduate Less than a high school diploma419 Note: Data are 2006 annual averages for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

47 Trends in Median Weekly Earnings By Education

48 Employment & Wage Growth By Educational Cluster,

49 Changes in the Way We Do Business Demand Driven –Skilled jobs in High-Growth, High-demand Industries –Increased opportunities in STEM industries High Growth Job Training Initiative Community Based Job Training Grants ETA’s Strategic Youth Vision…and now Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development (WIRED) - Talent development driving regional economic competitiveness –Expand employment and advance opportunities –Catalyzing the creation of high-skill, high wage jobs

50 What Does This Mean for Performance? Common Measures alone are not sufficient to assess performance Additional data can provide: System knowledge valuable to continuous improvement An understanding of our regional economies Support strategic planning

51 Scenario We know that: –High skill, High demand, High wage jobs: Require post secondary education Are less likely to be unemployed Workforce Investment System is charged with: –Educating and training for customers that responds to employers needs –Providing career paths that will achieve economic self- sustaining jobs

52 Occupations: Top 50 National In Demand (First 10) List Title High Growth Industry Projected Need Average Entry Wage Registered NursesHealth Care1,203,000$37,440 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Retail569,000$24,960 Accountants and AuditorsFinancial Services486,000$33,280 Computer Software Engineers, Applications Information Technology268,000$47,840 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers Homeland Security265,000$27,040 Physicians and SurgeonsHealth Care212,000$43,680 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers Construction209,000$31,200 Computer Systems Analysts Information Technology208,000$43,680 ElectriciansEnergy207,000$24,960 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and SteamfittersConstruction193,000$24,960

53 Scenario (cont’d) PY 2005 WIASRD Data Reveals: –Approximately 105,300 WIA Adults and 44,400 WIA Dislocated Workers received occupational training 53% trained in occupations that require On-the-Job training, High School Diploma or Less 35% trained in occupation that require a Postsecondary Award or Associates Degree 12% trained in occupations that require a Bachelor’s or Higher Degree

54 US Top Ten Occupations PY 2005 WIA Adult & DW Received Training OccupationUsual Education Number Trained Percent of Total Average Entry Wage Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Moderate-term on-the-job training11, %$28,002 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants Postsecondary vocational award8, %$19,090 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Postsecondary vocational award5, %$31,271 Medical Assistants Moderate-term on-the-job training4, %$22,438 Registered NursesAssociate degree3, %$45,844 Office Clerks, General Short-term on-the-job training2, %$18,501 Medical Records and Health Information TechniciansAssociate degree2, %$22,431 Medical Secretaries Postsecondary vocational award1, %$22,727 Computer Support SpecialistsAssociate degree1, %$31,166 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Moderate-term on-the-job training1, %$29,288

55 In Conclusion… “Workforce changes come from many angles – whether in the form of globalization of trade or an evolving population composition. Tackling these hurdles is today’s highly skilled, adaptive, and proud workforce. These hallmarks will serve the American workforce well as it meets the challenges that unfold in the future.” America’s Dynamic Workforce, US DOL

56 Thank You! Betty McGrath, Economist North Carolina Employment Security Labor Market Information 700 Wade Avenue PO BOX Raleigh, NC Eirik Anderson US DOL, Chicago 230 S. Dearborn, 6 th FL Chicago, IL O’Shell Howell US DOL, Philadelphia 170 S. Independence Mall W, Philadelphia, PA Jackie Keener US DOL, Philadelphia 170 S. Independence Mall W Philadelphia, PA