2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 1

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 2 The 21 st Century climate challenge “One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.” Chinese Proverb “You already know enough. So do I. It is not knowledge we lack. What is missing is the courage to understand what we know and to draw conclusions.” Sven Lindqvist

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 3 The world has less than a decade to avoid dangerous climate change that could bring unprecedented human development reversals Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor, a constituency with no responsibility for the ecological debt we are running up, who face the most immediate and most severe human costs The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a ‘twin track’ approach that combines stringent mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened international cooperation on adaptation The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali is a unique opportunity to put the interests of the world’s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 4 The 21st Century climate challenge Three distinctive characteristics:  It is cumulative  The effects are irreversible  Large time lags – today’s emissions are tomorrow’s problems  It is global

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 5 Rising CO 2 emissions are pushing up stocks & increasing temperatures In the past 100 years the earth has warmed C Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 are increasing at 1.9 ppm each year. It reached 379 ppm in 2005 Between 2000 and 2005 an average of 26 Gt of CO 2 was releases into the atmosphere each year

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 6 The Global carbon account Defining dangerous – keeping within 2°C Establishing a 21 st Century carbon budget Defining a sustainable emission’s pathway The problem of inertia– the case for adaptation

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 7 The 21 st Century carbon budget is set at 1,456 Gt CO 2 to avoid dangerous climate change

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 8 The 21 st Century carbon budget is set for early expiry

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 9 Charting a course away dangerous climate change The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows  The world – cuts of 50 percent by 2050 with a peak by 2020  Developed countries – cuts of 80 percent by 2050  Developing countries – cuts of 20 percent by 2050 with respect to 1990

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 10 Halving emissions by 2050 could avoid dangerous climate change

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 11 Some people walk more lightly than others The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO 2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people) The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 12

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 13 How many planets? The 21 st century carbon budget amounts to around 14.5 Gt CO 2 per year Total CO 2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29 Gt If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO 2

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 14 Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world “The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. They also contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without action they will pay a high price for the actions of others.” Kofi Annan “Like slavery and apartheid, poverty is not natural. It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated by the actions of human beings.” Nelson Mandela

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 15 Risk and vulnerability Climate risk is an external fact of life for the entire world Vulnerability is a measure of capacity to manage climate hazards without suffering a long-term potentially irreversible loss of well-being. The state of human development shapes the process by which risk is converted into vulnerability

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 16 Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD countries A risk differential of 79

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 17 The human development backdrop Poverty, child mortality and malnutrition  There are still around 1 billion people living on less than a dollar a day.  Around 28 percent of children in LDCs are underweight or stunted.  Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to achieve the MDG on child mortality Inequality  More than 80 percent of the world’s population lives in countries where income differentials are widening  Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for early recovery after shocks

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 18 Low human development traps The potential human costs of climate change have been understated Climate related risks force people into downward spirals of disadvantage that undermine future opportunities In Ethiopia, children exposed to a drought in early childhood are 36 percent more likely to be malnourished five years later – a figure that translates into 2 million additional cases of child malnutrition Indian women born during a drought or a flood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likely to ever attend primary school

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 19 Five human development tipping points Reduced agricultural productivity Heightened water insecurity Increased exposure to extreme weather events Collapse of ecosystems Increased health risks

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 20 Climate change will hurt developing country agriculture

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 21 Heightened water insecurity – glacial melting Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40 percent of the world’s population. In the arid cost of Peru, 80 percent of fresh water originates from glacial melt. The flow of the Indus, could decline as much as 70 percent In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water for irrigation and hydroelectric power

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 22 Extreme weather events The number of additional people experiencing coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332 million for a 3 o - 4 o increase in temperature. Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371 million by the end of the 21 st century Possible consequences of one meter rise in sea level  In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and 4,500 kms 2 of farmland flooded  In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced  In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be inundated affecting 11 percent of the population  In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land area is less than 1 meter above sea level

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 23 Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation “We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.” Albert Einstein “Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction.” Mahatma Gandhi “Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.” Helen Keller

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 24 Avoiding dangerous climate change – strategies for mitigation Setting mitigation targets: current problems Pricing carbon: the role of markets The role of public policy: regulation and research & development

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 25 Problems setting emission reduction targets Insufficient ambition Insufficient urgency Inaccurate indicators Inadequate sectoral coverage Inconsistent base years Targets are de-linked from policies

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 26 Pricing carbon emissions Market failure: Polluters do not suffer the worse consequences of their own pollution Immediate challenge: to push the price of carbon to a level consistent with the sustainable emissions pathway Ways to do it: taxation and cap- and-trade and trade

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 27 Where should the price of carbon be set? How should the price be generated?  Under carbon taxation emitters are required to pay for each tone of CO 2 they produce  Under cap-and-trade, the government sets an overall emissions cap and issues tradable allowances to allow business the “right to emit” Taxation versus cap-and- trade

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 28 The relative merits of taxation and cap-and-trade Administration Price predictability Revenue mobilization The differences can be exaggerated

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 29 The critical role of regulation and government action The energy mix The residential sector Vehicle emission standards R&D and deployment of low carbon technologies

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 30 The Energy Mix Currently energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels Renewable energy is not competitive with coal-fired power – price of carbon and incentives for predicable markets can play a role  Germany’ Renewable Sources Act – fix price for 20 years  Spain – wind power satisfies around 8 percent of total electricity demand. In 2005 saved 19 million t CO 2 emissions  Denmark – tax breaks on capital investments. In two decades wind has increased the share in electricity generation to 20 percent

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 31 Residential Sector Low cost mitigation In OECD residential accounts for percent of national CO2 emissions Appliances alone produce roughly 12 percent Policies on building and appliances could save up to 29 percent emissions (3.9 Gt CO 2 ) by 2020 equivalent to three times current emissions of India Average European household could save 200 to 1000 Euros annually through energy efficiency The best efficiency standards of electrical appliances could save 322 million t CO 2 by 2010 equivalent to 100 million cars off the road (all cars from Canada, France and Germany)

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 32 Vehicle Emission Standards Personal transportation is the largest consumer of oil In OECD the automobile sector accounts for about 30 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions Improvements in the United States regulatory standards would represent cuttings equivalent to France’s total emissions

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 33 Increased coal efficiency could cut CO 2 emissions

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 34 Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation “If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” Archbishop Desmond Tutu “An injustice committed against anyone is a threat to everyone.” Montesquieu

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 35 By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing delivered through UNFCCC amounted to US$ 26 million This is equivalent to one week spending in floods defences in the UK Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and fulfillment of pledges present further limitations Towards adaptation apartheid? Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 36 Investing in adaptation up to 2015 Additional financing needs for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience are estimated to be at least 86 billion by Climate proofing infrastructure - Social protection - Strengthening disaster response

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 37 The Human Development Report underscores that: The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. They are at greatest risk to face human development reversals leading to low human development traps. Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now. Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climate change and the threats it poses to humanity. Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is needed. The report argues for the creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility. Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist. International cooperation has been slow to materialize. Adaptation plans needs need to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation.

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences Fall Lecture 6 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 38 The HDR 2007/2008 will be launched 27 November

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 39 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 40 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 41 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 42 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 43 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 44 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 45 MDG – Millenium Development Goals

2007 Fall Lecture 7 SCIE 103 Life Sciences 46 MDG – Millenium Development Goals