The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for ASTRA Lasse Peltonen Centre for urban and regional studies Helsinki University of Technology ASTRA Meeting, May 2006 Klaipeda, Lithuania

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 2 Contents 1.The background of the winter storm study 2.The storm event in January Impacts – sectoral examples 4.Responses 5.Lessons

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 3 Purpose of the winter storm case study To make climate change concrete Look at climate change adaptation from present-day climate variability perspective (instead of future climate according to models) To engage ASTRA project partners in a shared task Demonstrate both shared and specific challenges of CC adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region: one storm leads to different outcomes in different regional contexts Use the case study for learning: what lessons can we draw from the event?

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 4 Method A questionnaire to the ASTRA network on country- and region-specific impacts of the storm Questionnaire complemened by other existing sources (reports, inquiries to experts and authorities) Valuable input and in-depth studies by ASTRA project partners - Thank you! Web-based demonstration will be developed based on the results

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 5 Gudrun a.k.a. Erwin The winter storm in January 2005 was an extreme weather event that affected almost all of the participating countries around the Baltic sea. The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for the Baltic Sea Region: fiercest event since 1969 Still, it was less damaging than the 1999 storms Lothar & Martin in western Europe

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 6 Gudrun (Erwin) storm path

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 7 Lähde:Saurí ym Major storms track and land cover

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 8 Storm risk Storm risk patterns in Europe mapped by the ESPON Hazards project Exposure: Storm paths Damage potential: Population density & assets at risk

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 9 Was the winter storm caused by climate change? ”It would certainly be exaggerating to develop horror scenarios for Europe as a result of climate change […] However, there is no doubt that in a warmer climate it will be necessary to expect much more frequent and more intensive windstorm and severe storm events” Münich Re ”Winter Storms in Europe (II): Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials”

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 10 Changing storm frequency Lithuania has met with ten major storms in the last 50 years  each of these storms have been considered a once in a hundred years –event Expectation: 1/100 yrs return period (1% yearly risk) Recent reality: 1/5 yrs return period (20% yearly risk) (Source: Eurosion –project 2000)

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 11 Impacts of the storm 17 people died hundreds of thousands people affected Damages estimated at EUR 2.5 billion Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries Sectors most affected: Natural resources (esp. forestry) Energy production and distribution Transport and Communications Spatial development & infrastructure

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 12 Turku, Finland

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 13 Pärnu, Estonia

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 14 Forest damages in Sweden Sweden heavily affected 75 Million cubic metres of forest damaged Equal to the normal annual timber harvest Are monoculture forests resilient?

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 15 Forestry loss categories Additional cost of harvesting the fallen trees Revenues lost as the price for timber falls as markets are overloaded Reforestation of totally damaged areas Costs of restoring the infrastructure related to forest management Costs of aero surveilance and inventory Source: Estonian WSS study (Kont et al. 2006)

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 16 Energy: power cuts Estonia: Interruption of electricity supplies to 5,500 electricity stations which make up 30% of the country's network Latvia: the storm affected 60 % of the country’s territory, cutting 40% population from power: 23-day emergency Lithuania: network came close to collapse: 1,4 million people affected Sweden: some people affected. total number of power-cut days were counted to add up to 2,3 million Finland: Loviisa nuclear power plant closure threatened Denmark: wind power turbines closed down

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 17 Restoring power (e.g. Latvia)

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 18 Coastal erosion Shoreline affected throughout the southern coasts of the study area Different sensitivities of different locations (sediment) Effects most severe in Latvia Increased water level and wave action together affected the coastlines of Germany, Poland and Lithuania, too.

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 19 1 Tulvariskien huomioiminen maankäytön suunnittelussa jää kauaksi Suurtulvatyöryhmän esittämästä tasosta.

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 20 The costs Total costs estimated at 2,42 billion euros of which 1,6 billion euros was insured the 40th costliest insurance loss since 1970 (Source Swiss Re 2006) Remember: not everything is reflected in the costs!

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 21 EUSF assistance European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) is a special fund created in 2002 to assist EU Member states recover form major disasters EUSF provided ca. 93 M€ in assistance Sweden received 82 M€ (total damages at M€) Latvia received 9,5 M€ (damages 192 M€) Estonia’s share was 1,3 M€ (damages 48 M€) Lithuania received € (total damages 15 M€)

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 22 Responses to the storm Early warning systems improvements Improvements in communication systems initiated (e.g. Swedish forestry agency web pages for forest owners) Technical preparedness (e.g. power generators for important sectors in Latvia) Monitoring activities (e.g. Lithuanian coast) Institutional initiatives (e.g. Espoo flood group,, Latvian Ministry of Interior) regulatory initiatives (e.g. Stockholm county Electricity supply rules for entreprises)

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 23 Institutional response: example from Latvia Latvian Ministry of Interior initiative: 1.Improve the coordination between state institutions and local municipalities, declare responsibilities of each institution 2.Budget planning to reserve funding to be available in the case of storms, flooding and similar hazards 3.Develop a system of public training and education in the area of civil defence 4.Increase applied research to develop the optimal system of hazard mitigation have been underlined. 5.Improve work in hazard identification within the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency.

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 24 Conclusion: Before the next storm, let’s… Engage in planned adaptation: increase adaptive capacity, not only emergency & rescue operations Improve early warning systems and immediate response capacity (rescue services) Improve communication channels between officials and towards the public Co-operate on sectoral strategies: both public & private sectors Improve documentation of storm effects: more uniform, publicly available data would enhance analysis and learning Initiate institutional measures to address resources and responsibilities of institution (state vs. municipality vs. private sector) Raise awareness on changing return periods for storms Study International & EU-level responses in the BSR

ASTRA Klaipeda Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 25 Thank you for your attention! Helsinki University of Technology (TKK) Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (YTK) ASTRA team Lasse Peltonen, Simo Haanpää, Samuli Lehtonen Contact: