The Future of Mobile Games Greg Costikyan

The Present: Technology Interpreted Languages (J2ME, BREW, et al.) Limited application size (<=128k) Security model prevents access to other features on handset Limited network access (HTTP)

The Present: Business ~$1b worldwide (but 60% in Asia) North America: –90+% of sales through operators –Charge on phone bill –~70% of revenues to publishers –~$200m revenues 2005 Europe: –70+% of sales through operators (rest through 3 rd party portals) –<=50% of revenues to publishers –Charge through premium SMS Continuing rapid growth

Business (con’t) One-time download fee ($3-$7) Additional cost for network use (unpredictable) <5% of handsets are ‘smart’ Difficult to market direct to consumers (different deck navigation, short codes by country, no premium SMS in US)

The Present: Games Sales on the basis of 1 line of text Consumers go for the familiar (licenses, retro games, mobile versions of PC/console) Operator deck placement critical Multiplayer not working Ultimately: Even less innovative than PC/console games

The Present: Non-Standard Standards The single toughest aspect of mobile development Need global deployment for reasonable revenues Typically, hundreds of builds for a single title

Short Term Developments 3D (EA sees it as “a console transition”) Spead of support for other networking protocols (IP sockets, UDP [but most operators bar UDP traffic]) Spread of 3G Increasing application size …But no immediate change to business model or core technology

“Where’s the Killer App” At conferences, both publishers and operators give lip service to the need for innovation… But actions don’t match words, because branded games are what sell Probably not going to happen without changes to consumer behavior, business model, and/or technology

Consumer behavior? Need to provide more information to consumers Game reviews available on some operators (Verizon) Few publications/websites review mobile games though Consumer marketing hard MDFs on the horizon (not necessarily positive)

Business Model? Push for 3 rd party portals Particularly hard in North America (diverse network technologies; Qualcomm has lock on BREW) Download-and-hot-synch too complicated for most users Operators offering flat-fee data access (but little consumer uptake yet) I don’t have any good ideas here

What makes mobile unique? Ubiquity WAN access Voice You already have a buddy list (it’s called your phone book) SMS, presence, etc… Location Pervasive gaming

But you can’t use any of this… Java/BREW security model doesn’t permit it More flexibility on smartphones (but <5% of market) VoIP (Pathway to Glory is a start) –But likely operator pushback

Technologies that may help Camera? PoC (but little deployment yet) LBS (but real technical issues) SIP or IP for small-scale multiplayer (but not for persistent server) SNAP (but Nokia sponsorship may make some reluctant) WiFi-to-WAN roaming (reduced data cost)

Further Down the Road Motion/other sensors Streaming media RFID (“the world is clickable”) Superdistribution Wearable image projection Modular design? Projected keyboard

What’s key? Social gaming Location sensitivity Pervasive feel Persistence Opt in/out Cheap, predictable data charges

Challenges Widespread standards adoption (OMA) Minimizing need to integrate operator by operator Non-game uses for core technologies to spur consumer adoption Alternative business models