The need for better integration between science and management MARE workshop 1-3 December 2004 Kaj Forsius HELCOM

Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Governing body of the Helsinki Convention International co-operation for the protection of the marine environment of the Baltic Sea area since the new Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area was signed (entered into force Jan 2000)

Aim of the Convention to protect the marine environment of the Baltic Sea from all sources of pollution to restore the ecosystem and preserve its balance to ensure sustainable use of the natural resources

Role of HELCOM An environmental policy maker developing common objectives and actions; An environmental focal point providing information which can form the basis for decision-making in other international fora; A body for developing Recommendations (own and supplementary) A supervisory body ensuring that HELCOM requirements are fully implemented throughout the catchment area; and A co-ordinating body ascertaining multilateral response in case of major maritime incidents.

HELCOM’s priority areas of work HELCOM work including assessments, as well as the supporting monitoring, should be targeted at identified threats Nature conservation and biodiversity; Eutrophication; Hazardous substances relevant for the Baltic Sea; Maritime safety and shipping, including response activities

Principles for HELCOM’s assessment products Backbone of HELCOM’s work since its beginning in cooperation with scientific network Aim: to provide policy relevant information for targeted users at national, regional and international level link assessments on pressures with state and impacts In order to: make sound decisions to restore the Baltic Sea ecosystem reach good ecological status support the implementation of the HELCOM objectives and actions to raise general public awareness

Some questions to be answered What is the state of the Baltic Sea marine environment today Future prospects for the Baltic Sea marine environment Which are the most severe problems Origin of the pollution Natural background forcing vs. anthropogenic effects Effects of hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea environment Effects of nutrients in the Baltic Sea environment Monitoring, prediction and regulation of excessive algal blooms Contaminants in Baltic Sea fish How to manage fish stocks sustainably Threats to biodiversity – endangered species – alien species Effects of an oil accident – combating tools How will the Baltic Sea ecosystem be influenced by the increasing maritime transport Possible new upcoming threats for the Baltic Sea and how can we detect them

Information pyramid

Ecosystem Approach to management of human activities Adopted by HELCOM Ministerial Meeting in 2003 Integrated approach to manage human activities affecting the marine ecosystems Sustainable use of the marine resources and maintenance of ecosystem integrity Include political, economic and social values, Should propose solutions which are socially acceptable, Management to be based on sound scientific advice

Ecosystem approach Ecological quality objectives (EcoQOs) play an integral role can allow for the setting of future policy goals evaluation of management outcomes EcoQOs should address both –the critical ecosystem components and –the most significant anthropogenic threats Effective tool to gain public support and guide the decisions of managers

From Visions… to Actions! “Prevent and eliminate pollution in order to promote the ecological restoration of the Baltic Sea Area and the preservation of its ecological balance” Ecological Quality Objectives & Performance Indicators are assessment tools to show how the ecosystem visions and goals have been met to set future policy goals

Scope of the EcoQO project

Indicators EcoQO 2 EcoQO n… EcoQO 3 EcoQO 1 Strategic Goals Indicator

Eutrophication Reduce eutrophication in order to restore ecological balance within the Baltic Sea and to ensure a functioning marine ecosystem Hazardous substances Toxic substances shall not affect the health of marine organisms and thus pose a risk to humans Biodiversity A resilient ecosystem with sufficient number of interconnected habitats ensuring healthy species composition and maintained diversity “A healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological components functioning in balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities” Visions

EcoQOs and Indicators Wide distribution and measurable parameter representing the EcoQO Reflects a high level of system interaction; Sensitive to a manageable human activity Responsive primarily to a human activity; Easily and accurately measurable; Historic data is abundant; Easy to understand.

EcoQOs - Eutrophication Reduce eutrophication in order to restore ecological balance within the Baltic Sea and to ensure a functioning marine ecosystem Restored depth range of perennial water plants and algae No excessive growth of opportunistic or nuisance species No exceptional massive algal blooms. Restored water clarity good ecological status Protect, allow recovery and restore the function of marine ecosystems in order to achieve and maintain good ecological status

EcoQOs – Hazardous substances Toxic substances shall not affect the health of marine organisms and thus pose a risk to humans No illegal oil spills No sub-lethal, intergenerational or transgenic effects to the health of marine organisms. All fish should be suitable for human consumption Zero/natural concentrations of hazardous substances Attain pre-Chernobyl concentrations of man- made radioactivity “ Phase out pollution in the marine environment so as to ensure that there are no significant impacts or risk to human and/or on ecosystem health and/or on uses of the sea”

Preserve a sufficient percentage of natural coastal landscapes and ecosystems Healthy and viable populations of top-predator species Restored species supporting climax communities e.g. Bladder wrack, Eel grass and Blue mussel Minimize the introduction of non-native species A resilient ecosystem with sufficient number of interconnected habitats ensuring healthy species composition and maintained diversity EcoQOs – Biodiversity Protect, allow recovery and restore the structure of marine biodiversity and ecosystems in order to achieve and maintain good ecological status

Target levels WFD reports (e.g. national & CHARM) (Coastal) HELCOM Background value Workshop 2000 documents Historical data: e.g. Laamanen, Fleming & Olsonen 2004 (secchi) and many others Modelling: e.g. Wulff and Schernewski & Neumann Reference level Target level

NUTRIENT INPUTS SUPPORTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS physical and hydrodynamic aspects, and climatic/weather conditions (e.g. flushing, wind, temperature, light availability), TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT INCREASED NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS & NUTRIENT RATIOS TRANSBOUNDARY NUTRIENT FLUXES increase in primary production increase in turbidity decrease in light penetration nuisance / toxic algal species and changes in species composition increase in phytoplankton biomass (chl-a) organic matter degree of oxygen deficiency (during growing season) shift from long-lived to short-lived nuisance macrophyte species and reduced depth distribution foam macrophytobenthos biomass and primary production algal toxins Increase in bacteria zoobenthos / fish kills & benthic community structure Ecosystem structure (+) (-) (+) II (+) (-) II I I III II III IV I (-) Release of nutrients from sediment Is it possible to achieve the agreed target values in combination or do they contradict? Do the set of target values reflect a Baltic Sea in ecological balance? Ecological Balance?

Use of models to combine pressures with effects So far mostly ecological models related to the assessment on the effect in the sea HELCOM has decided to: use models to assess the implications of different policy scenarios on nutrient inputs and the resulting eutrophication status in the different sub areas of the Baltic Sea. to assess the possible impacts of agricultural policies, including the implementation of the reform of the EU CAP

Project for “Assessment of implication of different policy scenarios on nutrient inputs” The basis of the effect models are the scenarios of activities at Land Link management scenario models with ecological models Aim is to: –to assess the impact of different agricultural policy scenarios on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea. –identify cost-effective measures in the future in the different sub basins of the Baltic Sea

Steps in the project To develop scenarios for measures to reduce nutrient losses from agriculture for the chosen years (e.g ). MARE to evaluate the effectiveness regarding inputs to, concentrations of nutrients and selected biological quality parameters reflecting the good ecological status –Costs, timelag Assessment of impacts Identification of cost-effective measures

Top-Down Bottom-up A. B. C. Stakeholder understanding/ participation Building a foundation of understanding: the “top-down” and “bottom-up” process…

For more information Please contact: Helsinki Commission Secretariat Katajanokanlaituri 6 B FI Helsinki Finland