Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” 1.Because housing can be quickly built, growing cities may grow very quickly; because housing is durable, declining cities will decline very slowly. Data for sample of US cities

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” 2.Changes in population growth are more persistent in declining cities than in growing cities. Change in population with respect to previous population change Declining Cities1.001 Growing Cities.455

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” Among declining cities, an extra one percent population loss in one period is associated with additional one percent population loss in the following period. The relationship among growing cities is only half as large.

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” 3.Declining cities will experience relatively large changes in housing prices but relatively small changes in the housing stock or population size. Estimated house price change with respect to population change Declining Cities1.8 Growing Cities0.23

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” If the rate of population loss within a declining city increases by 10 percentage points, the rate at which housing prices are falling is predicted to increase by 18 percentage points. Within growing cities a 10 point increase in population growth is associated with a 2.3 point increase in housing price growth.

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” 4.Declining cities with cheaper housing may attract lower income, lower skilled people. Change in the proportion college educated with respect to change in population Declining Cities8.28 Growing Cities.83

Hypotheses that arise from “Urban Decline and Durable Housing” If the rate of population loss within a declining city increases by 10 percent, the proportion of the population with a college degree is predicted to decrease by.83 percentage points. The effect of population change on proportion college educated within growing cities is much smaller.