1 Mapping the Future Colonel Dr. Thomas Will, GE A Chief, Strategic Forecasting Branch Bundeswehr Transformation Center

2 Joint Service Office Administrativ Subordination Operational Subordination Bundeswehr Transformation Centre Ministry of Defence Chief of Staff Bundeswehr Army Joint Support Service Air Force NavyMedicalService Vice Chief of Staff & CoS Joint Support Vice Chief of Staff Bundeswehr Armed Forces Staff For whom do we work?

3 Where to find us Commander Deputy Commander & Chief of Staff Department II CD&E Department I Transformation Department III OR, M&S Strategic Forecasting

4 Develop a Permanent Element which identifies Potentials for Improvement relevant for German security policy Develop a Permanent Element which identifies Potentials for Improvement relevant for German security policy  Methodology for a Systematic Strategic Forecasting  Interdisciplinary Co-Operation What we are doing

5 How it started 1996 Ad hoc Working Group „Armed Forces Development 2020“ 2002 Armed Forces, Capabilities, and Technologies in the 21st Century – 2030 (Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – 2030 – abbreviated: SFT 21 – 2030) 2005 SFT 21 – 2035 Since April 2006: Permanent element within Bundeswehr Transformation Center

6 Detect Potentials of the Future Function as an Early Warning System Target Capabilities Present CHODS with Alternative Options The Task

7 Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents Armed Forces 2015 / Time line Direction of thought in the study process Direction of thought in the study process Top down Security Environment 2040 Aim: Armed Forces Able to Fulfil Political Missions Looking Back from Alternative Futures Bottom up Bundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term)

8 Main Questions What are the risk potentials in the 21 st century? How will the future face of war look like? What kind of changes will we be confronted with? What does that mean with regard to security policy? What does that mean for the security community?

9 Security Relevant Environment 2040 Capability Analysis Capabilities Recommendations for Action Trend Analysis Overall Approach Interdisciplinary and International Cooperation Interdisciplinary and International Cooperation Workshops on Specific Issues Workshops on Specific Issues Scenario Building Risk Analysis

10 Need to identify changing potential! Demography Environment/Ressources Science & Technology Economy Culture Society Politics Trend Areas Increased Interdependence Increased Decision Density Increased Network

11 1. Global Level 1. Global Level 3. Local Level 3. Local Level 2. Regional Level 2. Regional Level Geographical Trend Analysis

12 Islamic World Organized Crime Change in Climate Development of Energy Use of Oceans Islamic World Organized Crime Change in Climate Development of Energy Use of Oceans Use of Space Knowledge Society Nano-Technology Bio-Technology Historical Trend Analysis Use of Space Knowledge Society Nano-Technology Bio-Technology Historical Trend Analysis Subject Areas of Trend Analysis

13 TOPOGRAPHY of ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS TOPOGRAPHY of ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS INITIAL SCENARIO Notion of Direction Time Horizon Aim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed Forces TRENDS ANALYSIS of CHANGING POTENTIALS ANALYSIS of CHANGING POTENTIALS Scenario Building and Analysis

14 Personnel: An Interdisciplinary Approach COL CPT LTC Army CMDR Navy LTC Air Force LTC Army Dr. Civil Engineer MA Political Sciences MA Economics MA Humanities