ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods Economic aspects Fourth Follow Up Committee Meeting Uccle,

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Presentation transcript:

ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods Economic aspects Fourth Follow Up Committee Meeting Uccle, 12 November 2008 Eve Giron CEESE-ULB Delphine Sacré CEESE-ULB Walter Hecq CEESE-ULB

Economic damage categories Direct TangibleIntangible Indirect TangibleIntangible A)Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage - Buildings - Household goods - Cars - … - Loss of life - Biodiversity loss - Spread of pollution & toxics - Stress / disruption of households & populations -Quality loss of water -… - Production losses - Market disturbances - Impact on land values - Lost income - … - Reduced competitiveness - Increased vulnerability of economic actors - Worry about the future - Stress - … Physical water contact No physical water contact

A)Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage Statistical analysis Heavy rains from 25 January to 28 February 2002 (Ourthe) Jan - Feb 2002 Esneux Housing € Number Household goods € Number Business € Number Total € Number Souverain Pré Hony Méry Tilff Total

B) State of progress : Damage functions (buildings) Literature analyses Y = 2*x² + 2*x « Atlas du Rhin 2001 » Y = HV * ²  wd “ B. Büchele & al., 2006” Y = 7119,37 * wd ,66 Collection “étude & synthèse” Y = damages (in relative or absolute term) X = wd (m) Wd = Water depth (m) HV = House value (€)

Y = 2x 2 + 2x Adaptation with database of our case studies and choice of the damage function x = water level recorded during the flood in “m” Y = damage percentage in % (Example of the study of « Atlas du Rhin 2001 ») Estimation of the house value (HV) ( Relative Absolute) Y = (2x 2 + 2x )*HV/100 Validation with real data (Disaster Fund) B) State of progress : Damage functions

B) State of progress: Estimation of the house value A)House value First idea: cadastral income (CI) not representative Real value = CI / 5,3 % Empirical functions :  HV (€) = * CI (€)  HV (€) = S (m²) * 39,4 (€/m²) * 33 C F = 0,6

B) Damage functions : Results €

Thank you for your attention

B) Damage functions : Results Map of economic damages Extend degree :

The ADAPT-project