Consequence Management Bob Dumont Senior Staff Meteorologist Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) November 28, 2001

Overview Consequence Management –Support Structure –Current Challenges –Recommendations Summary

Consequence Management Support Structure References: (Federal Response Matrices are in folders) –Federal Response Plan –Federal Radiological Emergency Response Plan –National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan Under a given scenario, LFA assignments are clearly stated; however, the concept of dispersion modeling and effects prediction varies by LFA and scenario--also support agencies get involved

Consequence Management Support Structure (2) Three-tiered Structure –Tier 1--Support to the emergency “first-responders.” Need to get useful information to the on-scene decision makers in a very short time frame –Tier 2--Bridges the gap between the first-response and steady-state support of Tier 3. May have deployed on- scene support to provide meteorological observations and tactical dispersion modeling, depending on the scenario. Both NOAA/NWS and DOD have the capability to deploy teams

Consequence Management Support Structure (3) –Tier 3--Ongoing consequence management support. The LFA tasks an operational center to provide dispersion and effects predictions, using the agency’s model of choice DOE: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory--ARAC NRC: NRC--RASCAL/NOAA/NCEP/ARL--HySplit-4 DOD: Joint Forces Command--HPAC/VLSTRACK/D2PC EPA: FEMA--CATS/HPAC/VLSTRACK/ALOHA For radiological emergencies/LNLL--ARAC FEMA: CATS/HPAC/VLSTRACK/ALOHA/ARAC NASA: ERDAS (ER Dispersion Assessment System)

Consequence Management Current Challenges All the models have limitations and weaknesses, regarding the scenarios they can support There are no standard criteria on which to evaluate and select the right dispersion model for a particular application or scenario We don’t have a clear definition of timeliness and resolution requirements, and, as a result, we simply don’t know how good the agencies’ models of choice are at meeting current or anticipated future requirements.Communications and coordination; i.e., getting an accurate and easily interpretable product we can in the hands of the decision maker in a timely and secure (if required) manner.

Consequence Management Current Challenges (2) Modeling in the urban environment and water- borne transport modeling--little has been done to date For biological attacks or water-borne chemical attacks, need to develop a forensic capability; i.e., a reverse dispersion capability to determine the point of attack

Consequence Management Recommendations Endorse the OFCM follow-on Workshop on Effective Emergency Response: Selecting a Suitable Dispersion Model for a Given Application, December 5-6, 2001 Work with the Office of Homeland Security to clearly define homeland security requirements for environmental support

Consequence Management Recommendations (2) To improve our urban modeling capability, if feasible, recommend the acceleration of the DOE/DTRA major urban field dispersion experiment by 1 year from July 2003 to July 2002 Establish program to develop new and improved NBC (nuclear/radiological, biological, and chemical) meteorological models that can be applied in real time any place in the world-- consider a “community” model approach

Consequence Management Recommendations (3) Long-term goal: Develop the strategic framework where all government agencies and other authorized users (emergency responders) can access via secure communications (if necessary) and run dispersion models to meet real-time requirements for any type of terrorist threat/attack Develop national plan for environmental support to homeland security, to include a concept of operations based on LFA scenarios

Summary Improved atmospheric and dispersion models Limited computing capacity will require agencies to share the load Acquire available high resolution observations-- get access to state and local mesonets Strengthen our communications and dissemination infrastructure, particularly with respect to secure communications

Summary (2) Develop a concept of operations that puts one accurate and easily interpretable product in the hands of the decision maker Strengthen first responders’ understanding of evolving weather services

Summary (3) The benefits of this effort : –Understanding the roles/missions of the various Federal agencies with regard to homeland security and knowing how individual agencies currently plan to respond in the event of a potential or real terrorist threat or attack –Developing a coordinated, interagency concept of operations of how agencies will respond in the future –As future requirements are identified, we’ll need to leverage individual agencies’ capabilities and resources to capitalize on available opportunities