Risk Assessment and Management Katie Matthews GEOG 350 November 8, 2007

What is Risk Management? An environmental tool that has influenced regulations, decision making, and policy. An environmental tool that has influenced regulations, decision making, and policy.

What is Risk? Simply, the likelihood of an undesirable effect Simply, the likelihood of an undesirable effect –Oxford Dictionary: “The chance of hazard, bad consequences, loss, etc.” It is defined according to one of the three following approaches It is defined according to one of the three following approaches –Engineering approach –(Eco)toxicological approach –Actuarial approach of the insurance agency

Engineering Approach Risk = probability x consequence Risk = probability x consequence –Both probability and consequence must be present in order for a situation to present any risk Two options to control risk Two options to control risk –Reduce probability of it happening –Reduce consequences

(Eco)toxicological Approach Risk consists of a source of a contaminant (stressor), a route (pathway), and targets (receptors) Risk consists of a source of a contaminant (stressor), a route (pathway), and targets (receptors) –All three of these must be present for there to be a risk StressorReceptor Route

What is Risk Management?: Revisited There are 6 components to Risk Management: There are 6 components to Risk Management: –Risk Identification –Risk Assessment –Risk Control and Mitigation –Emergency Response –Risk Communication –Risk Perception

Risk Identification Poses two problems Poses two problems –Public perceived risks –Adverse impacts go unnoticed Carry out through seven main means Carry out through seven main means –Review of regulatory requirements –Analysis of inputs and outputs –Process analysis –Analyzing possible stressors, receptors, and pathways –Job hazard analysis –Environmental impact assessment –Disasters, accidents, or near misses

Risk Assessment An estimation of the likelihood of undesired effects due to risk. An estimation of the likelihood of undesired effects due to risk. Attempts to answer the following three questions: Attempts to answer the following three questions: –What can happen? –How likely is it that it will happen? –What are the consequences if it does happen? Falls under two classifications: (Eco)toxicological or engineering approaches Falls under two classifications: (Eco)toxicological or engineering approaches

(Eco)toxicological Problem Definition Exposure Assessment Effects Assessment Risk Characterization Risk Control (if necessary) Monitor

Engineering Problem Definition Probability Estimation Consequence Estimation Risk Characterization Risk Control (if necessary) Monitor

Risk Control and Mitigation Reduce probability or control the contaminant Reduce probability or control the contaminant 6 strategies: 6 strategies: –Avoid exposure altogether –Reduce frequency of the loss –Reducing consequence of loss –Separating exposures –Duplicating assets –Transferring obligation to control losses through a contractual situation to another party.

Emergency Response Essential component of Risk Management Essential component of Risk Management –It plays a critical role in reducing consequences of accidents

Risk Communication Required to manage risks properly Required to manage risks properly Communication of the risk, the consequences, and identifying any possible ways to reduce the probability and consequences and communicating such to all involved. Communication of the risk, the consequences, and identifying any possible ways to reduce the probability and consequences and communicating such to all involved.

Risk Perception Consideration in selecting risk control options, understanding the possible response of stakeholders, and designing emergency response plans Consideration in selecting risk control options, understanding the possible response of stakeholders, and designing emergency response plans

Risk Assessment to Risk Management Acts as input into environmental management Acts as input into environmental management 3 essential tasks in Risk Management 3 essential tasks in Risk Management –Determining what hazards present more danger than society is willing to accept –Considering what control options are available –Deciding on appropriate actions to reduce/eliminate unacceptable risks 4 th is suggested: evaluating the actions to control risk with appropriate mechanisms for feedback. 4 th is suggested: evaluating the actions to control risk with appropriate mechanisms for feedback.

When should RM be carried out? Risk Management should be used when: Risk Management should be used when: –Deciding to proceed with a project –Selecting a site –Planning and designing a facility –Operating a facility –Remediating a site –Monitoring a site –And many other situations…

References: Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management: Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management: Risk World: Risk World: SETAC Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: SETAC Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Society for Risk Analysis: Society for Risk Analysis: Miller, L., Adams, E., and Wardell, R. (2002). Tools for Environmental Management: A Practical Introduction and Guide. Dixon Thompson: New Society Publishers. Pgs Miller, L., Adams, E., and Wardell, R. (2002). Tools for Environmental Management: A Practical Introduction and Guide. Dixon Thompson: New Society Publishers. Pgs Power, M. (1998). A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Risk Assessment/Risk Management Frameworks. Environmental Science and Technology. Vol 32(9). [Electronic Version]. Pgs Power, M. (1998). A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Risk Assessment/Risk Management Frameworks. Environmental Science and Technology. Vol 32(9). [Electronic Version]. Pgs