First results and simulations plan with CHIMERE for NATAIR (WP5) Gabriele Curci, LISA Matthias Beekman, LISA, CNRS Robert Vautard, LSCE/IPSL, CNRS NATAIR Project Meeting, October 2006, Oxford, UK

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations2 of 14 Objectives of WP5 Estimation of fraction of atmospheric pollutants over Europe which can be attributed to natural/biogenic emissions: → Incompressible part of air quality Calculations rely on CHIMERE chemistry-transport model with updated biogenic emissions from NATAIR project Some specific objectives: Document the improvement of updated biogenic emission inventory Determine “natural vs antro” share of primary and secondary pollutants Interaction between anthropogenic and biogenic emissions: For given bio emissions how changes in anthro emissions affect air quality? Could bio emissions reduce effectiveness of European AQ management? Biogenic emissions and climate change (qualitative)

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations3 of 14 ERA-40 Global meteorological forecasts MM5 Regional meteorological forecasts CHIMERE Regional chemical forecasts Prognose hourly concentrations : gases (O 3, NO 2, CO, SO 2 …) aerosols (Sulf, Nitrate,…) EMEP anthropogenic Em. GLCF land use, land cover Simpson99 Biogenic em. NATAIR LMDZ-INCA (gases) GOCART (aerosols) Large scale chemical forcing from monthly climatology ● gaseous chemistry module ● aerosols module ● advection, turbulence ● dry and wet deposition The CHIMERE-GEMS-NATAIR system

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations4 of 14 CHIMERE-GEMS domain: Geographical GEMS domain [35°N-70°N; 15°E-35°W] Horizontal resolution 101x71 cells ; 0.5°x0.5° Vertical resolution 8 levels ; top at 500 hPa Meteorological fields from MM5 v 3.6:  Forced by ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis  30 x 30 km 2 resolution This version is already operative at LMD  BUT we have to repeat runs for NATAIR to have 3-D fields needed to drive CHIMERE! Only surface fields are stored.  1.5 CPU Months to simulate 1997, 2000, 2001 and 2003 The CHIMERE-GEMS-NATAIR system

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations5 of 14 First simulations – July 2001 CONT3 domain: 35°N-57.5° N 10.5°E-22.5° W MM5 files to run on the GEMS domain still not ready! Monthly average meteorology (surface temperature and wind) at noon 12 39

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations6 of 14 First simulations – July 2001 OZONE Max NO2 ISOPRENE TERPENES 30 ppb

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations7 of 14 Effect of Isoprene on Ozone Max Isoprene contributes as much as 5-10% to average ozone peak over Europe in July 2001 ppb 0 7 Δ OZONE Max with and without isoprene OZONE Max 30 60

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations8 of 14 Effect of Terpenes on Ozone Max TERPENES NO2 RURAL AREAS => LESS OZONE However, effect VERY SMALL < 1% POLLUTED AREAS => MORE OZONE Δ OZONE Max with and without terpenes

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations9 of 14 Effect of Terpenes on SOA Terpenes contribute a significant part of Secondary Organic Aerosols over Europe in July 2001 Up to 90% in Eastern Europe! µg/m SOA Δ SOA with and without terpenes

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations10 of 14 NATAIR Natural/Biogenic sources To be implemented into CHIMERE Biogenic VOC’s: ready for 1997, 2000 and 2003 isoprene -> O 3, PM (OC) specified terpenes -> PM (OC), O 3 other VOC’s -> O 3, PM (OC) Soil NO emissions: daily emissions for 2000 NO -> O 3, NO 3 - Forest fires: ? PM (primary PM), NO, CO, VOC, … Wind Blown Dust: ready by the end of november (1997, 2000, 2001, 2003) mineral PM Spores, bacteria: yearly total primary PM 1/2

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations11 of 14 Lightning: ready by the end of november, algorithm implemented into the model NOx -> O 3, PM Volcanoes + geological seapage: yearly total + eruptions info (Italy), episodes (Iceland) SO 2, PM Other NH 3 sources (pets, animals …): yearly total NH 3 -> PM Sea related emissions: sea salt and DMS  implement algorithm into model DMS, sea salt -> PM Wetland emissions: CH 4 2/2

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations12 of 14 New SOA scheme To be implemented into CHIMERE CHIMERE SOA groups Antrhopogenic (2 groups) HIGH SOA yield: toluene, ethylbenzene, propylbenzene, etc. LOW SOA yield: xylenes, trimethylbenzene, etc. Biogenic (6 groups) α-pinene and sabinene β-pinene and Δ 3 -carene limonene terpinene other monoterpenes: ocimene, terpinolene, linaool, terpineol, etc. sesquiterpenes: α-humulene, β-caryophyllene NATAIR BVOCs Isoprene α-pinene sabinene β-pinene Δ 3 -carene limonene terpinene ocimene terpinolene linalool eucalyptol (1,8 cineol) other monoterpenes (sum) sesquiterpenes or β-caryophyllene OVOC (sum)

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations13 of 14 Simulations to be performed TYPEPERIOD N° SIMUL. YEARS AIM Old bio emiss1997, 2000, 20013Validation NATAIR bio emiss1997, 2000, 20013Validation Anthropogenic OFF1997, 2000, 20013Assessment One update at a timevariable~ 6Check Leave one out1997 or Sensitivity Bio PRES. + An. MFTR1997 or 20001Assessment Bio PRES. + An. CLE1997 or 20001Assessment Bio FUTURE20031Assessment Bio FUT. + An. MFTR20031Assessment Bio FUT. + An. CLE20031Assessment Total Number of Simulated Years24-30 Considering 8 CPU Days per 1 Simulated Year => 6.5 – 8 months! Hopefully we can substantially reduce this time with the new cluster (Jan ’07?)

NATAIR meeting 3 June 2015, Oxford Gabriele Curci, LISA - CHIMERE Simulations14 of 14 Data needs – Cadastre Option General needs : Domain: Natair domain is fine Horizontal resolution: 10*10 km is fine, we will make simulations at 0.5° Temporal resolution: 1h Years: 1997, 2000, 2001, 2003 WARNING: is we don’t receive the emissions for all these years we cannot perform all the planned simulations Data should be ASCII or Binary netcdf or else binary NOT GIS dependent Please provide us with a sample of the data we will have later to prepare interfaces * Auxiliary data in same format may be helpful for interpretation, i.e. landuse, meteo parameters

THE END Thanks for your attention!