The Future of Technology 2003 IEEE Fellows Technology Survey Prepared for IEEE Spectrum By The Response Center December 2002

2 Table of contents Page Background and Objectives3 Methodology4 Notes on Analysis5 Study Findings6 Technology-Needy Social Issues7 Tech Industry Recovery?8 Open Source Computing9 How Will We Access Information?10 Broadband Access & Applications11 Moore ’ s Law13 Billion-Transistor Chips?14 The Energy Industry15 Future Energy Sources17 Alternative Automotive Fuels18 Air and Rail Transportation21 Tomorrow ’ s Engineers 22 Respondent profile24

3 Background and Objectives IEEE ’ s flagship publication, IEEE Spectrum, will focus on “ the future of technology ” in its January 2003 issue. To obtain a better understanding of technology issues, the magazine ’ s editorial staff wants to obtain views from influential people in the electrical and electronics engineering community. To this end, the magazine commissioned The Response Center, an independent market research company, to conduct a research project among IEEE members nominated by their peers for “ Fellows ” status. Primary objectives of the study include: To measure Fellows ’ opinions on hot topics in science and technology, such as computers, power and energy and transportation. l To provide Fellows with a forum for expressing their views on the future of technology by allowing them the opportunity to elaborate on their opinions to questions asked. To produce a reference guide for Spectrum writers to access while authoring articles for the January ‘ 03 issue. Study findings gleaned from this research are summarized in the following charts.

4 Methodology l The Response Center conducted a Web-based research study among IEEE Fellows.Data collection took place over a period beginning November 5, 2002 and ending on December 2, l The questionnaire was developed by IEEE, in conjunction with The Response Center. It is estimated that the survey averaged 15 to 20 minutes to complete. An address list of approximately 1,200 Fellows was provided by IEEE. Fellows were pre-notified of the study via an alert from IEEE. Following, The Response Center sent out invitations and hosted the study ’ s website. Midway through data collection, reminder s were sent to all who failed to respond to the initial invitation. l A total of 565 Fellows responded to the survey, resulting in a response rate of 48%.

5 Notes on the Report l All numbers reported are percentages unless otherwise noted. These percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number, thus percentages may not add to 100%. Given the self-administered methodology employed, all results reported represent response-based data. That is, respondents who answer “ don ’ t know ” or who choose not to answer a specific question have been “ based out ” or excluded from reported results for that particular question. Thus, the actual number answering each question varies to some degree. l Where 10-point scales were used (ratings from 1-10), the higher number represents the more strongly positive evaluation. Top-3 box scores (ratings 8-10) indicate highly positive perceptions while bottom-3 box scores are indicative of highly negative perceptions. Question numbers reflect the final version of the “ Future of Technology ” questionnaire.

Study Findings

7 Technology-Needy Social Issues l Question: Below is a list of broad social issues. Please indicate the amount of technological resources you feel will be needed in the next five years to address each issue. (10= need more technological resources; 1= need less technological resources) *Q1: Base = “ total ” (422)

8 Tech Industry Recovery? l Question: Thinking about the current difficulties being experienced by the following industries, please indicate which industry you think will be most likely to recover first. (1= most likely to recover; 5= least likely to recover) Q2: Base = “ total ” (418) * Percentage ranked 1st ** Percentage ranked 5th or 6th

9 Open Source Computing l Question: How important do you feel open source computing (Linux, for example) is for the development of new computer products and technology? (10=extremely important; 1=not important at all) *Q3: Base = “ total ” (425) Open Source Computing

10 How Will We Access Information? l Question: In your opinion, what will be the most common way people access information in 10 years? (1= most common way; 6= least common way) Q4: Base = “ total ” (418) * Percentage ranked 1st ** Percentage ranked 5th or 6th

11 Broadband Access Around the World *Q5: Base = “ total ” (374) 30% Broadband Access? l Question: Traditionally, a product is considered successful when it has reached 30% market penetration. In most areas, broadband access is below 30%. When do you think that 30% broadband access will be achieved in each of the following regions?

12 Broadband Applications l Question: Please indicate how strongly you feel each of the following computer applications will increase demand for broadband in the coming years. (10= strongly increase demand; 1= not strongly increase demand) *Q6: Base = “ total ” (415) Increase broadband demand?

13 Moore ’ s Law Question: How long do you think Moore ’ s Law (doubling integrated circuit transistor density every 18 months) will continue to hold true? *Q7: Base = “ total ” (390) Moore’s Law

14 Billion-Transistor Chips? l Question: Currently, there are integrated circuits with 250 million transistors running. Some people in the semiconductor industry are forecasting that by the end of the decade there will be integrated circuits with one billion transistors running. How useful would such capacity be in each of the following industries? *Q8: Base = “ total ” (400) Usefulness of integrated circuits with one billion transistors running?

15 Energy Deregulation vs. Innovation l Question: How much do you agree with this statement? (10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree) “ Energy deregulation in the US will advance energy technology development. ” *Q9: Base = “ total ” (400) Statement: “Energy deregulation in the US will advance energy technology development.”

16 Energy Production and Distribution *Q10: Base = “ total ” (393) Energy deregulation More efficient trading facilities Increased storage capacity Better transmission/distribution systems Alternative sources Important to successful electric energy production and distribution? l Question: How important is each of the following to successful electric energy production and distribution? (10= very important; 1= not at all important)

17 Future Energy Sources l Question: How promising is each of the following technologies with respect to energy production over the next 10 years? (10= very promising; 1= not at all promising) *Q11: Base = “ total ” (390) Promising in terms of energy production?

18 Alternative Automotive Fuels l Question: How important is the development of fuels, other than gasoline, that can power automobiles and mass-transit vehicles? (10= very important; 1= not at all important) *Q12: Base = “ total ” (421) Fuel Development

19 Alternative Automotive Fuels, cont ’ d l Question: Which of the following alternative fuels that can be used to power automobiles and mass-market vehicles do you feel is most promising? (4= most promising; 1= least promising) Q13: Base = “ total ” (420)

20 Barriers to Alternative Automotive Fuels l Question: How much of a barrier is each of the following to the development of [alternative automotive fuels]? (10= major barrier; 1= not a barrier at all) *Q14: Base = “ total ” (372) Barrier to the development of various alternative fuel sources?

21 Air and Rail Transportation *Q15: Base = “ total ” (434) Statement: “Planes, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support Statement: “Trains and light rail, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support l Question: How much do you agree with the following statements? (10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree) “ Planes, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support. ” “ Trains and light rail, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support. ”

22 Educating Tomorrow ’ s Engineers Question: How well do you feel university engineering departments are doing in terms of educating today ’ s engineering students? (10= excellent job; 1= poor job) *Q16: Base = “ total ” (434) University Engineering Departments

23 Engineering Salaries *Q17: Base = “ total ” (436) Statement: “High-caliber students are no longer choosing engineering as a profession because they are able to make more money in other professions.” l Question: How much do you agree with this statement? 10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree. “ High-caliber students are no longer choosing engineering as a profession because they are able to make more money in other professions. ”

Respondent Profile

25 Area of Expertise and Employment Q19; Q20: Base = “ total ” (440)

26 Entrepreneurial Status Q21: Base = “ total ” (439)