20% Wind Vision: a KS Opportunity Larry Flowers National Renewable Energy Laboratory Topeka, KS – September 26, 2007

Installed Wind Capacities (‘99 – Aug 07)

State of the Union Address “…We will invest more in … revolutionary and…wind technologies” Advanced Energy Initiative “Areas with good wind resources have the potential to supply up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States.” A New Vision For Wind Energy in the U.S.

20% Wind-Electricity Vision Wind energy will provide 20% of U.S. electricity needs by 2030, securing America’s leadership in reliable, clean energy technology. As an inexhaustible and affordable domestic resource, wind strengthens our energy security, improves the quality of the air we breathe, slows climate change, and revitalizes rural communities.

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” - Yogi Berra

National and state policy uncertainty Mixed stakeholder perspectives and knowledge Electricity supply planning based on capacity Variable wind output viewed as unreliable Incomplete comparative generation assessments Mismatch of wind and transmission development timeframes Federal lending all source requirements for G&T’s Lack of interstate approach to transmission development Lack of utility financial incentives to own wind facilities High cost and low turbine availability for community projects High cost and permitting challenges of <1 MW turbines Uncertainty in emerging emissions REC markets Market Challenges

10% Available Transmission 2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs

What does 20% Wind look like? Source: AWEA 20% Vision

12 Key Messages 1.Wind energy provides multiple benefits at the national, regional, state, and local levels 2.Targeted messages and education are needed for the diverse set of stakeholder interests and perspectives, including regional variations in same. 3.Convergence of energy security, carbon liability and fuel uncertainty concerns is likely to transform the market for US electricity supply. 4.Federal and state policies are needed for a diversified and robust wind energy portfolio 5.Community and distributed wind are important building blocks for public acceptance of a 20% wind future. 6.Resource planning and procurement should maximize use of low marginal cost, zero-emissions energy resources, which displace more expensive fossil fuel

12 Key Messages con’t. 7.All environmental (including water savings) and economic impacts and risks should be included in comparative resource economics. 8.Wind is the crop of the 21st Century for rural America, and the resulting economic benefits need to be included in comparative assessments of generation options. 9.Wind deployment can ramp up rapidly and incrementally to meet local and regional load growth. 10.The federal sector (both facilities and transmission) represents significant opportunities for leadership in use and transmission of wind. 11.Meeting most load growth with wind power buys time for the development and commercialization of advanced coal technologies able to sequester carbon. 12.In air quality markets, policies need to be crafted carefully to account for non-emitting technologies.

Conclusions 20% wind energy penetration is possible 20% penetration is not going to happen under business as usual scenario Policy choices will have a large impact on assessing the timing and rate of achieving a 20% goal Key Issues: market transformation, transmission, project diversity, technology development, policy, public acceptance 20% Vision action plan: Fall 2007 Source: AWEA 20% Vision

1.Energy 2.Water 3.Food 4.Environment 5.Poverty 6.Terrorism & War 7.Disease 8.Education 9.Democracy 10.Population Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley

Economic Impacts to Kansas from 7158 MW of new wind development by 2030 Direct Impacts Payments to Landowners: $20.8 million/year Local Property Tax Revenue: $19 million/year Construction Phase: 11,133 new construction jobs $1.35B to local economies Operational Phase: 1805 new long-term jobs $152M/yr to local economies Indirect Impacts Construction Phase: 5,000 new jobs $424M to local economies Operational Phase: 438 local jobs $43 M/yr to local economies Induced Impacts Construction Phase: 6,223 new jobs $559 M to local economies Operational Phase: 850 local jobs $76 M/yr to local economies Wind energy’s economic “ripple effect” Construction Phase = 1-2 years Operational Phase = 20+ years Totals (construction + 20 yrs) Total economic benefit to Kansas = $7.8 billion New local jobs during construction = over 23,000 New long-term jobs for Kansans = over 3,000

*Total economic impact includes direct, indirect and induced impacts. Energy-equivalent new wind vs. new coal in Kansas

Windy Rural Areas Need Economic Development

Environmental Benefits No SOx or NOx No particulates No mercury No CO2 No water

Sustainable Withdrawal of Freshwater is National Issue Source: EPRI 2003

Source: NOAA

Energy-Water Nexus

“ With public sentiment nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed.” - A. Lincoln

Carpe Ventem