GEOGRAPHY – A CHANGE IN DIRECTION 2001 Census Debriefing Seminar 10 April, 2006 Geography - Discussion Steve Turner Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit

OUTLINE 2001 – OAs, SOAs 2011 – proposed stability principle Way Forward

LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND PARTNERS Need for a great deal of detailed information on unemployment, low income, education, health, crime, etc …for various sets of neighbourhoods …..

M’bro

NDC

Sure Start

Comm Strat (old n’hoods)

New n’hoods

New HMR

NEEDS FOR GEOGRAPHY Several sets of boundaries Each generally follows ‘natural’ boundaries – blocks of housing Each can alter as needs evolve

OAs

SOAs

New HMR, SOAs

THORNABY

FEATURES OF OAs Strange shapes, not corresponding to ‘natural’ boundaries Divide communities Join separate communities

A RESULT Awkward OA/SOA boundaries mean that, when reworking data, forming data for neighbourhoods …… …… generally, it takes more time and produces less accurate information

CENTRAL PROBLEM Essentially, the unhelpful and bizarre OA boundaries result from being based on postcodes

EXTENSION OF PURPOSE OAs’ original purpose, i.e. for Census, grew substantially … Neighbourhood Statistics SOAs ODPM interest …. …. Index of Multiple Deprivation …. Neighbourhood Renewal Fund

LOCAL STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS Comments: SOA boundaries don’t make sense Difficult to identify with Erratic boundaries make it more difficult to deliver services in targeting improvements

TOWARDS 2011 – THE STABILITY PRINCIPLE? Principle of stability of OA/SOA boundaries past 2011: past 2011 past 2021? past 2031?? ….. for ever???

NEEDS Fundamentally, local authorities need the right data for the right areas for their needs at that time. Thus:- Data needs will change Geography needs will change

GEOGRAPHY NEEDS Longer term stability suggests inflexibility Inflexible geography suggests not meeting changing needs ….. LAs’ ability to follow an evidence-based approach deteriorates (…. in 2006, would we want to work with boundaries defined in 1981?)

UNATTAINABLE IN PRACTICE - 1 In practical terms, a stable geography is not attainable, especially at neighbourhood level. Data will change by 2011 because: Definitions of data will change Census response rates will change Many OAs will change in nature and character

UNATTAINABLE IN PRACTICE - 2 Need to redraw boundaries: Housing development makes many OAs change significantly - could be over 20% by 2011 OAs may need to change to accommodate new disclosure control policies …all these factors (and others) would make comparisons less meaningful

SUMMARISING Change will happen, needs will alter Stability would lock us into inflexibility OAs and SOAs based on postcodes do not follow ‘natural’ boundaries

WAY FORWARD Purpose Flexibility Statistical Disclosure Control

PURPOSE A full discussion of what we need from geography. For example:- Looks sensible Helps produce good data Opportunity for local consultation Allows for various sources - not just the Census Flexibility to help monitor change

FLEXIBILITY A geography: Based on individual addresses Promotes recasting of data for different geographies Nature of needs suggests boundaries should follow ‘blocks’

STATISTICAL DISCLOSURE CONTROL Too tight a constraint; appears inflexible Danger of becoming locked into boundaries that are not fit for purpose Need for SDC that recognises and balances both:- The rights of the individual The needs of the local data user

Sadberge